In 2017/18, Tottenham Hotspur finished third, behind Manchester City’s centurions and
Manchester United.
They also competed ably in Europe before falling in the Round of 16 to Italian champions Juventus.
Winning the title will be hard for any side: Guardiola’s City face the worrying precedent
of teams failing to retain the trophy; Manchester United seem disjointed behind the scenes;
and Arsenal and Chelsea are rebuilding under new managers.
Are Spurs in a position to take advantage of this?
Last season, Spurs won 23 games, drew eight, and lost seven, finishing on 77 points – fur
behind second place Manchester United and 23 behind first place City.
Specifically, Spurs dropped 17 points against the other ‘top six’ sides and seven against
the three sides who were relegated.
Spurs were best against the rest – especially in winning home and away against the sides
placed 10th to 12th – Spurs also only lost one game against the sides placed 7th to 17th,
Leicester City away.
Their points per game show that they need to improve against the better teams and against
the worst:
This is partly stylistic – the other top six sides play pressing football to varying
degrees, and a similar tempo game, while the bottom teams tend to sit deep.
But that doesn’t explain Spurs’ success against other deep-sitting or higher tempo
sides.
Spurs need to beat the best and the worst more consistently to challenge.
Maurico Pocchetino’s Tottenham Hotspur did not make any additions to last seaon’s squad
and, while transfers out have been limited to young prospects like Keanen Bennetts and
Reo Griffiths, Spurs fans could be forgiven for being worried about their team’s chances.
But, while freshening up a squad can be good, there is a body of evidence that suggests
that cohesion is hugely important to successful teams.
Spurs have a manager who has been at the club since 2014 and a captain and goalkeeper who
has been there since 2012.
Many of the squad, especially the key members, have been at the club for three or more seasons:
Lloris, Trippier, Rose, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Dier, Dembele, Dele Alli, Eriksen, Son Heung-Min,
and Kane are all three year plus veterans of the club, and that does not count youth
players who have progressed to the first team like Harry Winks.
In addition, there are national team groups from England and Belgium, which further solidify
the squad.
While not adding to the team could appear like an error, there is no more cohesive unit
in the Premier League in terms of a core group playing together under the same manager for
so long, and such cohesion is crucial for a sustained title challenge.
While cohesion is crucial, injuries to key players can have an impact.
The ongoing concerns around Moussa Dembele’s long-term fitness and Harry Winks’ fitness
are valid and, with no one brought in to fulfil the ball-carrying, line-breaking role that
Dembele does for Spurs, along with his defensive work, that could be an issue.
Dembele is superb at dribbling out of tight spaces, breaking the opposition press by pushing
through it at times – he pre-assists and wins back the ball with ease, and his contributions,
while sometimes unheralded, are absolutely key.
No side would want to do without a player of his gifts, but Spurs may have to at some
point this season.
Their traditional 4-2-3-1 would work less well without Dembele, or his natural understudy
Harry Winks, so what could they do?
The two obvious choices are to play more of a 4-3-3, or bulk up the midfield by getting
the full backs to invert more; these two options are not, as Manchester City show, mutually
exclusive.
An additional man in midfield would allow Spurs to play through the first or second
line of the press, without needing a Dembele-like figure to break it, and create a greater number
of passing options especially if the full backs invert as well.
Spurs could also try playing a 3-4-3, which would suit Trippier, Alderweireld and Vertonghen,
and accomplish a similar way of playing through with passing options rather than ball-carrying.
There are also players who could be given the chance to impress in midfield, not least
Luke Amos and Oliver Skipp.
Tottenham would do well to place a greater emphasis on exposing their young prospects
to first team action; they have already lost some players with potential and others’
careers have slowed down, partly because of a lack of first team football for players
like Kyle Walker-Peters and Josh Onomah.
Introducing them could freshen up the side and compensate in part of the loss of Dembele.
While Spurs were supposed to be playing their first fixture at their new stadium in mid
Sepetmber against Liverpool, this and the following match have already be switched to
Wembley following safety concerns.
This change could affect Spurs’ playing style.
Nathan Clark, a tactics writer and Spurs fan, has observed that Spurs’ high tempo, quick
passing game is facilitated by the short grass and hard ground at White Hart Lane, a set-up
that presumably will be carried over to the new stadium.
At Wembley, the grass is longer and the ground softer, so there is less bounce and zip when
playing.
This could require a change of playing style to suit different surfaces, something that
would be expected for away games but is at best an annoyance and at worst a genuine impediment
for home games, where rhythm and imposing your style is of such importance.
In addition, the dimensions of Wembley, which are larger than the playing area at White
Hart Lane, do not lend themselves to Pocchetino’s pressing game.
As Spurs tend to overload on one side to press the opposition or to attack, this leave the
far side open; there are opportunities to switch the play but, should the opposition
win the ball back, then Spurs are more open to counters on larger pitches.
In short, Spurs should hope that they can move into their new home as soon as possible,
and not just to appease the fan base.
Spurs fans have reasons to be cheerful: they’ve kept their squad intact so far, have a high
degree of cohesion, and an ingrained playing style.
But they need to win more against the best and the worst sides, compensate for the probable
loss of Moussa Dembele for a while, and adapt to the on and off pitch concerns brought about
by the new stadium move stalling.