1921- Devastated by the largest war in history, Europe still remains the center of economic,
military, cultural, and diplomatic power. Yet the Great War has opened up an opportunity for
a nation that has to date remained largely a 'middle' power, influencing its own region of
the world but largely ignored by the rest of the planet. American dollars now fuel investments
in countries the world over, and America's ascension as a superpower has officially begun.
In 100 years the United States went from a second rate power to the world's sole
Superpower- with some even postulating that American dominance in culture, economics,
military, and technology is so profound, the United States may be a 'hyperpower'. But Russia
still dogs America's every step, and China, a modern miracle story, has in fifty years recreated
itself from a nation of backwater farmers to a close competitor of the United States.
So what could the next 100 years hold in store? Who will be the world's superpower in 2121?
A superpower is defined as a nation that can project cultural, economic, diplomatic,
technological, and military power across the world. During the Cold War two superpowers
competed to shape the world in their own image- the United States and the
Soviet Union. In the end, American cultural, diplomatic, and economic power outstripped the
Soviet Union's technological and military prowess, and helped speed the collapse of
the communist regime. Today, only America remains as a superpower- despite competition.
In 2021 the closest competitors to the United States are Russia and China, yet both these
nations still struggle to fulfill several of the qualifiers for superpowerdom. Both Russia
and China cannot project military power very far from their own shores, and struggle to make their
culture relevant to the people of the world. China's great economic might rivals the United
States' own, while Russia has fallen hopelessly behind due to a lack of a diversified economy
and overreliance on volatile fossil fuel markets. Diplomatically, Russia still maintains great
clout in Europe, but struggles to be relevant far outside the European theater, while China jockeys
to gain influence across Asia and the developing African continent. China directly competes with
the United States in technological breakthroughs, though falls behind in domestic innovation and the
ability to translate breakthroughs into products the world wants to buy. Russia still creates some
of the finest engineers and scientists in the world, but struggles to keep those brilliant
minds from immigrating out of the country to greener pastures elsewhere- like the US.
In the next 100 years, at least one pattern is clear: China rises, Russia falls.
But predicting the next 100 years is far more difficult than it was to predict who'd be a
superpower in 2021 while looking ahead from 1921. That's because our pace of technological
breakthrough has only accelerated since then, and even more importantly,
the rate of revolutionary technological breakthroughs has increased exponentially.
These are the technologies that are true global game changers- the wheel, gunpowder,
the compass, the steam engine, space flight, the internet, smart phones, 3d-printing.
In the past, population and economic trends made for very good predictors
for forecasting the future of global powers. In the next 100 years it's
quite clear that technology will be the greatest influence on who reigns supreme,
and with both China and the United States emerging as leaders in artificial intelligence,
it's likely one of these two nations will be the world's technological superpower in 2121.
Here the United States has several advantages over China in its bid to become 2121's top dog.
Namely, the US is still a global leader in turning technological breakthroughs
into consumer products- a strength it has enjoyed since the Cold War.
Part of China's problem in fueling innovation is its lack of diversity. Over 90% of its population
is native Han Chinese, and while immigration from Africa has been increasing lately, China has
serious problems with luring the world's citizens to become Chinese citizens. Consider that there
are approximately 100,000 Americans who have made the move to China- while there are approximately
2.5 million Chinese living in America. China may be the world's oldest continuous culture,
but the world doesn't seem particularly interested in said culture at the moment.
If China wishes to rise to superpower status in 2121, it will have to greatly increase its
diversity and the appeal of its culture to global audiences. As an authoritarian nation
led by the Chinese Communist Party, few people are willing to trade in their freedoms for a
nation which has none of the basic rights of a modern democracy- such as freedom of assembly,
the press, and speech. This is unlikely to make China more appealing than the United States to a
prospective immigrant, specially when they could be the next to face genocide such as the Chinese
genocide of the Uighur people. However, this lack of rights is also a potential powder keg,
which could seriously derail China's plan to become a global superpower. Even today there is
a growing movement against the Chinese Communist Party, largely spearheaded by Chinese youth who
have traveled and lived abroad, then returned home to a dissatisfied life controlled by the CCP.
The US has its own issues to face in the next 100 years, but it is at least a politically stable
nation. However, growing wealth inequality is putting serious pressure on the American
way of life, and if not addressed before future technologies concentrate wealth even more in the
hands of the elite, could become America's own powder keg that derails it from superpowerdom.
China also faces a very serious population problem in its future- and it's likely not what
you think. While today it is the most populous nation on earth, by 2121
some experts predict China will actually shrink by as much as 300 to 400 million.
Part of this is the natural decline of birth rates in a first world nation, where individuals have
more opportunities and thus choose to improve themselves before having a smaller number of
children later in life. Of much greater concern though is China's ticking population time bomb.
Thanks to the one-child policy enacted in the 1970s in a bid to control overpopulation,
China now has a population that is aging faster than almost anywhere else in the world.
As more and more Chinese enter retirement, there are fewer and fewer young workers to take their
place in the economy. Pensions, social security, and the care of the elderly soon threaten to
place an extremely serious burden on China, and social programs to encourage women to have more
children are not finding any purchase amongst China's women. The disparity in men and women,
thanks to a preference for boys over girls during one-child only,
only fuels the pending fire. In 2019, there were 114.61 men for every 100 women.
Compare that to the US, which in 2020 had a much more even ratio of 97.95 men for every 100 women.
The Chinese language also makes it more difficult for it to become a global superpower,
as it is a very hard language to learn and must compete against English, which has the advantage
of being much simpler and already being the default language of business around the world.
The Chinese are acutely aware of this problem, which is why English is compulsory in most Chinese
schools- but you won't find Mandarin being compulsory in global schools anytime soon.
With all of our focus on the US and China however,
we've missed two other contenders for superpowerdom in 2121.
India is expected to be the world's most populated country in 2121,
with a population over 1 billion. However, India faces the challenge of lifting many
millions out of poverty. Currently, India ranks at number 131 in the Human Development Index,
while China ranks at number 85. Increasing tensions with two of its neighbors- China
and Pakistan- could also derail plans to become a superpower should war break out.
By 2121 the nations with the greatest population gains
will all be in Africa. As the continent rapidly catches up with the rest of the world,
it'll be able to assert itself with more effect both at home and abroad.
For long its plentiful natural resources have been exploited by other nations, yet as Africa rises it
will be able to better manage and control the vast stockpiles of natural wealth on the continent.
And with the fastest growing populations in the world, a unified Africa could field
a military that dwarfs all three of today's greatest powers- the US, China, and Russia.
So who will reign supreme in 2121? It's a tough question to answer,
but given its long term political stability, diverse population,
strong culture, two big oceans to protect it from war, and current status as sole world superpower,
it's likely the US will remain a superpower in one hundred years.
It's possible, but unlikely that China will rise to become a second superpower in that time period,
though it will certainly remain Asia's most powerful nation- or perhaps be eclipsed by a
rising India. Africa meanwhile, if it managed to unify, may not become a global superpower by 2121,
but will certainly become a contender for world superpowerdom in the following one hundred years.
Now go watch This Could Be The Most Powerful Military in 2050,
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