[Music]
so in part one we discussed the unsolved
mystery of who sent the catspaw to kill
bran and we broke down Tyrians logic in
implicating Joffrey only to find that
his logic is completely without merit
Tyrians argument relies on Joffrey to be
both a stranger and not a stranger to
Valyrian steel
it relies on Joffrey to be both stupid
and clever and it relies on Joffrey
saying something he never said there is
little reason to suspect Joffrey and yet
weirdly tyrion is not the only person to
come to this conclusion
jaime comes to this conclusion as well
with a little help from Cersei and they
seem to have something that Tyrion
couldn't come up with a motive let's
revisit the scene and breakdown their
logic at Riverrun Catelyn Stark seemed
convinced I'd sent some footpad to slit
her son's throat that I'd given him a
dagger that she said scornfully Tyrion
asked me about that so first of all we
know of no such conversation happening
between Tyrion and Cersei Tyrion talks
to Cersei about Jon Aaron's murder but
not Brandon the dagger
Tyrion means to talk to Littlefinger
about the dagger and never gets around
to it so I'm not certain what Cersei is
talking about perhaps this conversation
happens off screen but neither Cersei
nor tyrion ever think about it which is
odd as Tyrion specifically Ponder's
whether Cersei is guilty or not and if
Tyrion had asked Cersei about it when
the conversation have unraveled much
like this scene there was a dagger the
scars on Lady Catalans hands were real
enough she showed them to me did you oh
don't be absurd
Cersei closed the window yes I hope the
boy would die so did you even Robert
thought that would have been the best we
kill our horses when they break a leg
and our dogs when they go blind but we
are too weak to give the same mercy to
crippled children he told me he was
blind into self at the time from drink
it's interesting to note that Jamie's
first conclusion is that Cersei sent the
cat's paw which means Jaime lied to cat
about how open he is with Cersei or at
least changed his mind about it now
Cersei denies it but then out of the
blue brings up Robert who just so
happens to be the owner of the dagger
then she provides a motive for Robert
to boot and I will say it's a bit weird
that Cersei is able to retell Roberts
drunken story so well it definitely
feels artificial and this wouldn't be
the first time
Cersei tried to pin something on Robert
Jaime though is unconvinced that Robert
is the culprit his drunken rants cannot
be taken seriously
Robert Jaime had guarded the king long
enough to know that Robert Baratheon
said things in his cups that he would
have denied angrily the next day were
you alone when Robert said this you
don't think he said it to Ned Stark I
hope of course we were alone us and the
children
Cersei removed her hair nets and draped
it over a bedpost then she shook out her
golden curls perhaps Marcella sent this
man with the dagger do you think so
it was meant as mockery but she'd cut
right to the heart of it Jaime saw it
once not Marcella Joffrey Cersei frowned
Joffrey had no love for Robb Stark but
the younger boy was nothing to him he
was only a child himself a child hungry
for a pat on the head from that softie
let him believe was his father
so here Jaime is asking who else heard
Robert's supposed comment because he's
clearly searching for another culprit
besides Robert interestingly Cersei
first claims that they were alone which
of course would implicate her again but
then adds the children implicating them
as well then Cersei makes a rather
clumsy joke it was actually Marcella of
course by mentioning the children in the
first place one's mind should
immediately go to Joffrey among the
children he's the most obvious choice
being the oldest and the most
independent it Cersei weirdly jokes that
Marcella did it was it a clumsy
misdirection for being a failed joke
it's incredibly effective
Jaime believes it cuts right to the
heart of it and he concludes at once
that Joffrey did it it's interesting
that a crime that Jamie first attributes
to Cersei is now being pinned on a dead
person no Jaime statement that Joffrey
was hungry for a pat on the head does
seem to be accurate as far as we know
Joffrey spoke of Robert as a role model
and he did once try to show his dad a
mutilated cat and its feet a litter that
said the last time he mutilated
something for his father he got beaten
for it so it's odd that Joffrey is a 10
another mutilation for affection attempt
now Jimmy's logic is much better than
Tyrians but it should be noted that it
relies on Geoffrey's character being
nearly the opposite of Tyrians
assessment Tyrion thinks Joffrey is
arrogant and vicious while Jamie's
deduction relies on him being insecure
and in need of a Father's love while
taking on an act that's supposed to be
seen as merciful so it's interesting
that Jaime and Tyrion come to the same
conclusion with opposing logic and so in
the end we find that on close
examination Tyrion seen actually points
more to the Hound as the culprit and
close examination of Jaime's scene
actually points more to Cersei as the
culprit is this accidental or is our
author trying to inject more doubt this
isn't to say that the Hound or Cersei is
the actual culprit yes the Hound
expressed a desire for brand to die and
a desire to sneak into his chambers and
the Hound did spend a lot of time with
Arya talking about the gift of mercy but
he also confessed all of his crimes to
Arya in order to get her to kill him one
would think he would have mentioned
hiring a cat's paw to kill Oreos brother
and yes Cersei wanted to keep the incest
a secret and did discuss killing bran
with Jamie and yes she does appear to be
deflecting blame regarding the attack
but would Cersei really be dumb enough
to use a dagger that could be traced
back to her
Tyrion didn't think so but that really
is the heart of the issue would anyone
be dumb enough to use a dagger that
could be traced back to them why even
provided dagger daggers and knives
aren't hard to come by and even if one
couldn't find one a good old rock or
strangling could have worked even
assuming Joffrey were a complete and
utter [ __ ]
it's absolutely baffling that he would
assume he needed to supply a dagger why
why supply a dagger seriously would
patch face or Hodor or jingle bell even
make this mistake it's simply a folly
that goes well beyond idiocy and
carelessness now one could say sure it
doesn't make sense but our author isn't
perfect and he hasn't created a perfect
story perhaps this is always a
possibility and his statement that the
issue would be resolved in a Storm of
Swords certainly supports this but it's
also quite clear that our author is
adding misdirection while providing the
suppose
solution why heptarian drunk while
riddling things out
why have Tyrion think Joffrey knows
Valyrian steel only to not know Valyrian
steel only to know Valyrian steel again
why have Tyrion remember send a dog to
kill a wolf when it was sent a dog to
kill a dog why have Cersei claimed she
had a discussion with Tyrion about the
dagger when she didn't why have a
remember some long drunken quote from
Robert verbatim out of the blue and why
have her joke about Marcella doing the
crime when Joffrey is the more obvious
choice at some point the lack of logic
builds up to a point where it no longer
seems like author error now perhaps our
author is leaving the narrative open
because he wants to add more or perhaps
he simply likes having a mystery or
perhaps you screwing with the close
readers or perhaps there's another
explanation because there are other
explanations
in fact lurking in Winterfell there are
not one but two very suspicious
characters who have a knack for sneaking
around undetected and who would probably
want to kill bran the first such
character is Littlefinger's unnamed
agent and yes Littlefinger definitely
had a man at Winterfell if you remember
back in a game of Thrones after brands
fall a mysterious character leaves a box
for maester Luwin the box contains a
Meera schlenz
making Luanne think he must look closer
lo and behold hidden in the box is a
message from Lysa lying to Katalin and
telling her that Jon Arryn was murdered
by the Lannisters a couple of books
later in a Storm of Swords we find out
that Lysa was instructed to write this
letter by Littlefinger so it seems that
the two of them together arranged for
this agent to head to Winterfell and
drop off the box now of course this
letter is interesting it definitely
shows that Littlefinger was trying to
create a stark Lannister feud the letter
caused Ned to come south to King's
Landing to find the truth about Jon
Aaron's murder and then Littlefinger
provided Ned a list of servants he
should talk to and then the servants
pointed net in the direction of the
armorer
were Ned fine to Gendry and in the
direction of the brothel where he finds
the babe in fact Littlefinger himself
brings Ned to this brothel and so Ned
was well on his way to discovering
Circe's infidelity
largely thanks to Littlefinger now on
the one hand it's pretty clear that a
Littlefinger caused conflict was going
to happen we
or without the dagger on the other hand
if the dagger does play beautifully into
little fingers hand almost too
beautifully of all the daggers that the
cat's paw uses it just so happens to be
little fingers dagger and when cat tells
net about the dagger in King's Landing
the Whole meeting allows Littlefinger to
gain trust with Ned and the lie that
Littlefinger tells that it's perience
dagger leads to cat kidnapping Tyrion
which essentially sparks the war so it's
the dagger part of Littlefinger's plan
or is Littlefinger just lucky and a
really great improviser it's hard to say
it would in some ways fit very nicely
for little fingers agent to have hired
the Kasbah or for little figures agent
and the cat's paw to be one in the same
that said brands fall was rather
unexpected occurring well Littlefinger
was down in King's Landing it would be
very bold for little fingers agent to
take the initiative to kill brand
himself then again over three weeks pass
between brands fall and when bran is
attacked and this is a story where cross
world communication can occur via
various means like Ravens Dreams glass
candles where woods and flames so while
we don't have any evidence that
Littlefinger was able to communicate
with this agent over the course of three
weeks it wouldn't be too surprising if
he did now at this point I would list
problems with the Littlefinger theory
but there really aren't any other than
the challenge of communicating with this
agent and Winterfell over a three-week
period all in all it makes perfect sense
for this to be a little fingers crime an
attack on brand whether successful or
not
builds on the stark paranoia against the
Lannisters already established in lysis
letter if the Starks happen to ask
Littlefinger about it as they did he can
pin it on Tyrion if the Starks happen to
discover the true owner of the dagger
Robert it implicates people around him
like Cersei Jaime or Joffrey
so is Littlefinger the culprit well the
thing is there is another character at
Winterfell who is equally likely it's
none other than Mance Rayder the
king-beyond-the-wall that's right he was
hanging around Winterfell at this time
as well in a Storm of Swords mance
rayder tells us of this adventure to
Winterfell a fairly crazy story when it
comes down to it when your father
learned the king was coming he sent word
to his brother Benjen on the wall so he
might come down for the feast there is
or commerce between the black brothers
and the free folk than you know and soon
word came to my ears as well it was to
choice of a chance to resist your uncle
did not know me by sight so I had no
fear from that quarter and I did not
think your father was like to remember a
young crow he'd met briefly years before
I wanted to see Robert with my own eyes
King to King and get a measure of your
uncle Benjen as well he was first Ranger
by then and the bane of all my people so
I saddled my fleetest horse and rode so
here we find out that news travels
pretty fast up north apparently mance
somehow quickly heard about the feast
because benjin was heading south not
exactly sure how or why this rumor would
reach mance so quickly but again our
story has a number of ways for cross
world communication mance kaleem's
commerce but mance may have a spy in the
watch and he also has a Rell's eagle at
his disposal now Robert never indicates
when he left or when he would arrive so
it's a bit odd that mance thinks he can
beat him nonetheless mance sets off with
the motive of wanting to see Robert and
benjin with his own eyes now I have to
say that this motive seems pretty
unlikely this trip to Winterfell and
back should take two to three months
Geon and Tyrion took three weeks to go
from Winterfell to the wall by horse
mantas trip is further and he's on foot
for much of it and these two to three
months would be precious for mance as he
tries to rally and prepare the free folk
for their attack on the wall and a poor
use of time is not the only thing that
makes this mode of dubious the wall can
stop an army but not a man alone
I took a loot and a bag of silver scaled
the ice near Long Barrow walked a few
leagues south of the new gift and bought
a horse oh and all I made much better
time than Robert who is traveling with a
ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his
Queen and comfort a day south of
Winterfell I came upon him and fell in
with his company Free Riders and hedged
nights are always attaching themselves
to Royal processions in hopes of finding
service with the king and my loot gained
me easy acceptance so it's not just that
mance spent two to three months to go to
Winterfell and back mance scales the
wall a dangerous and arduous feat then
walks across the gift and the
you gift and then some 53 leagues in
total or 180 miles
he then buys a horse on ombre lands
another dangerous feat and then he rides
to Winterfell and integrates in with the
Free Riders another dangerous feat all
while hoping Ned or anyone else wouldn't
recognize him
I know every body song that's ever been
made north or south of the wall so there
you are
the night your father feasted Robert I
sat in the back of his Hall on a banks
with the other Free Riders listening to
Orland of Old Town play the high harp
and sing of dead kings beneath the sea
Ivan took your father's meat and Mead
had a look at the Kingslayer an imp and
maid passing note of Lord Eddard's
children and the wolf pups that ran at
their heels
if you'd been discovered taken your
father would have had my head the king
gave a shrug though once I had eaten at
his board I was protected by guests
right so John is completely taken aback
on how risky manses stunt is but man
shrugs it off because of guests right
which doesn't really make any sense
execution or not if mance were
discovered he would have still been
captured and put in jail forever the
entire wildling campaign to head south
would have come to an end so let's put
this in perspective a two to three-month
arduous and dangerous journey that
jeopardizes the fate of an entire people
all for the whimsical desire to look
upon Robert and benjin with one's own
eyes that is simply insanity patch face
wouldn't do that
Hodor wouldn't do that jingle bell
wouldn't do that when it comes down to
it there must be another reason for
mance to have made this journey but what
could it be well I will say that history
tells us that the wildlings have invaded
the realm before and each time their
strength was broken on the wall or by
the power of Winterfell on the other
side that latter part is important as if
mance rayder had a sufficient plan for
invading the north it would involve
dealing with not just the wall but
Winterfell as well after all crushing
the Nights Watch is meaningless if
there's an army of 20,000 on the other
side ready to cut you to pieces and I
will say it's astoundingly lucky for
mance that the War of the five kings
broke out when it did Robb took his army
south leaving the
with no forces to send to help defend
against the wildlings
Lord Commander Mormont's himself says
that the Stark lannister feud has
created a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity
for mance the War of the five kings
played right into manses hand
I mean besides Stannis the point being
mance like Littlefinger has a motive to
create turmoil between the Starks and
the Lannisters and looking for
opportunity to create turmoil would
justify a two to three-month trip and
there are a few things interesting about
manses story that fit with the cat's paw
first of all mance says that he brought
a lute and a bag of silver as it happens
a bag of silver was found among the
possessions of the cat's claw and man
says that he integrated in with the
hedge knives and the Free Riders to gain
access to Winterfell and Tyrion did
hypothesize that the cat's paw would
have been among the Free Riders and
mance does say that he spent time
watching the stark children it's a
pretty big coincidence and if mance
isn't the culprit that would mean there
were two men among the Free Riders both
with bags of silver both watching Brand
who would both want him dead now you may
wonder is it really in mance rayder's
personality to kill a comatose boy he
seems such a jolly character the answer
is absolutely in fact of all of the
characters at Winterfell
he is the most likely to want to kill a
comatose boy if you remember Cersei
tells the story of Robert lamenting that
Westerosi society isn't strong enough to
give mercy to crippled children whether
Robert said this or not may be unknown
but there is truth in the idea that
highborn Westeros II don't normally kill
children with disabilities afflictions
or abnormalities after all
Tyrion jinglebell and serene are all
proof of this but you know what society
does do this wildling society in fact
this is a conversation between John and
manse's sister-in-law Val about Shireen
and her greyscale the great death is
what we call it it's not always mortal
and children north of the wallet is
hemlock is a sure cure but a pillow or a
blade will work just as well if I had
given birth to that poor child I would
have given her the gift of mercy long
ago I want the monster out of there him
and his wet nurses you cannot leave them
in that same Tower as the dead
girl she is not dead she is her mother
cannot see it nor you it seems yet death
is there so unlike those south of the
wall
wildlings do believe in giving mercy to
children and are strong enough to follow
through with it Val claims 100 percent
of children with greyscale or mercy
killed north of the wall it is quite
interesting that Val uses the term mercy
and mentions killing a child with a
blade and mentions that Shireen is
already dead and our catspaw with a
blade in hand said it's a mercy he's
dead already so all in all killing brand
would simply be a win-win for mance he
would create turmoil in the south and
weaken Winterfell while giving mercy to
a poor comatose child in fact there's
only one downside to the mance rayder
theory and that is it's still a pretty
big coincidence that the cat's paw
happened to choose little fingers dagger
when stealing a dagger to frame the
Lannisters of course the coincidence of
little fingers dagger is a downside of
Joffrey being the culprit as well and
there you have it two explanations that
make way more sense than the explanation
we have been given with Joffrey which
frankly makes little to no sense at all
will we ever find out the truth will we
ever find out who really sent the cat's
paw only time will tell and that's all
for our murder mysteries once again I'm
probably wrong about half of this and
next time we'll be delving into a number
of videos on the Nights Watch we'll see
you then