HERE WE GO, ONE DAY FROM THE ELECTION.
I'M GOING TO GIVE YOU
MACRO NUMBERS HERE BECAUSE WE ARE NOW AT A POINT WHERE
STATE-BY-STATE BREAKDOWNS GET A LITTLE DICIER, THEY ARE A LITTLE
BIT ALL ACROSS THE MAP, WE HAD THE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE FBI
SAYING OOPS, OVER THE WEEKEND WE LOOK THROUGH 650,000 EMAILS AND
IT TURNS OUT THERE IS NOTHING IN THEM.
THERE IS PROBABLY NOT
GOING TO BE POLLING THAT IS DONE IN ENOUGH TIME TO TELL YOU THE
EFFECT OF THAT NEWS, SO IT'S COMPLICATED.
BUT I CAN GIVE YOU
A MACRO SENSE AS WE HEAD INTO THE ELECTION.
I WILL GIVE YOU
HUFFPOST POLLING, LAST I LOOKED THEY WERE AT 98% CHANCE FOR
HILLARY CLINTON TO WIN.
I FIND THAT PREPOSTEROUS, RIDICULOUS.
LET ME EXPLAIN.
EVERYONE DOZEN AGGREGATE ON THE POLLS IN A
DIFFERENT WAY, OVER THE WEEKEND THE HUFFINGTON POST AND NATE
SILVER HAD A BIG FIGHT ON HOW TO DO THE POLLS, I DON'T WANT TO
BORE YOU WITH THE DETAILS BUT THE FOLKS THAT JUST LOOK AT THE
POLLS AND SAY BASED ON OUR CALCULATIONS AND LIKELY VOTERS
AND OUR READING OF WHAT WE CONSIDER REPUTABLE POLLS, THEY
COME UP WITH DIFFERENT NUMBERS.
HUFFPOST HAS IT THAT 98.4, I
THINK THAT'S RIDICULOUS.
WHAT DOES 538, NATE SILVER'S SITE,
HAVE IT AT?
HERE'S WHERE IT'S DIFFERENT, THE 98% FOR
HUFFINGTON POST IS HER CHANCE OF WINNING THE ELECTION BASED ON
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
NATE WILL LOOK AT HOW MUCH OF A LEAD SHE
HAS NATIONWIDE.
THIS IS JUST THE POPULAR VOTE, THAT'S NOT HOW WE
DECIDE ELECTIONS IN AMERICA, WHICH IS INSANE BY THE WAY, BUT
TO GIVE YOU A SENSE OF WHETHER SHE IS UP OR NOT, AS HE EXPLAINS
THIS IS ROUGH.
ROUGHLY, SHE HAS ABOUT A 2 1/2 POINT LEAD.
THAT
IS MY SUMMARY OF NATE SILVER'S SUMMARY AT 538, HE HAS A
SLIGHTLY BROADER RANGE, BETWEEN 2 AND 3%, BUT I THINK THAT'S
EXACTLY RIGHT.
THAT IS MY READING OF THE POLLS, SKEWED OR
UNSKEWED.
SHE COULD WIN THE POPULAR VOTE AND STILL LOSE THE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
WHEN IT COMES TO THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, NATE
SILVER'S READ IS THAT CLINTON'S CHANCES ARE 65%.
IF YOU ARE A
GAMBLER, THOSE NUMBERS ARE CONCERNING.
IF YOU'VE GOT A 98%
CHANCE OF WINNING A BET, EVEN IF YOU ARE CURSED AND YOU ARE THE
CUBS AND EVERYTHING GOES AGAINST YOU, YOU PROBABLY ARE STILL
GOING TO WIN THAT BET.
IF YOU'VE GOT A 35% CHANCE OF LOSING A
BET, I'VE GOT TO TELL YOU, YOU WILL LOSE IT A LOT OF TIMES.
THAT IS THE MOST OBVIOUS, RIDICULOUS THING TO SAY.
OF
COURSE, IT'S 65-35.
BUT I SAY IS A BETTOR BECAUSE IF YOU HAVEN'T
DONE A LOT OF GAMBLING, A LOT OF FOLKS LOOK AT IT AND GO, I GOT
IT, ONE IS GOING TO WIN, THE OTHER ONE IS NOT.
SO IF SOMEONE
HAS A 51% CHANCE -- 65, THAT SOUNDS HIGH, THAT MEANS THEY ARE
GOING TO WIN.
NO IT DOESN'T.
IT MEANS 35% OF THE TIME, THE OTHER
GUY WINS.
AND THAT HAPPENS.
IT HAPPENS A LOT, IT HAPPENS 35% OF
THE TIME.
I KNOW FOR SOME OF YOU THAT IS SUPER SIMPLE, FOR SOME
OF YOU, YOU ARE STILL THINKING THE ONE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE
IS GOING TO WIN -- NO, THAT'S NOT HOW IT ALWAYS GOES.
AND
POLLS HAVE A MARGIN OF ERROR, HER NATIONAL LEAD IS AN
AGGREGATE SO IT IS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE ERROR, BUT THE POLLS BY
STATE ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE ERROR, EVERYONE DOES POLLS IN A
DIFFERENT WAY, SOME ARE RELIABLE SOME ARE NOT.
NATE IS WEIGHING
THE POLLS, AND IN THE PRIMARIES I THOUGHT HE WAY UNDERPLAYED
DONALD TRUMP, I THINK I WAS RIGHT ON THAT, HE APOLOGIZED TO
HIS AUDIENCE FOR THAT, I THOUGHT HE UNDERESTIMATED BERNIE SANDERS
IN OPEN PRIMARY STATES LIKE MICHIGAN, ON THE OTHER HAND HE
GOT CLOSED PRIMARY STATES LIKE NEW YORK RIGHT.
IN THIS CASE I
AGREE WITH HIM COMPLETELY, I AGREE WITH HIM ABOUT 100% IN HIS
ANALYSIS.
THAT MEANS, HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE.
SHE STILL HAS A
GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING AND IF YOU ARE A BETTOR, BY THE WAY,
YOU DON'T WANT TO BE ON THE 35% SIDE, YOU WANT TO BE ON THE 65.
SHE IS STILL LIKELY TO WIN, BUT IT COULD GO THE OTHER WAY.
WHEN
YOU LOOK AT ANY ELECTORAL MAP, AND SOME FOLKS, I CALL THEM THE
ESTABLISHMENT BUT REALLY PEOPLE WHO WORK IN WASHINGTON AND NEW
YORK, THAT BUBBLE, THE REASON I SAY BUBBLE IN THIS CASE IS
BECAUSE THEY REALLY DON'T ALMOST KNOW ANYONE IN THE MIDDLE CLASS
OR AMONG THE POOR.
THEY WILL BE SUPER MAD AT ME SAYING THAT, YOU
DON'T KNOW THAT, OF COURSE I DO -- REALLY?
YOU GO DRINKING WITH
FOLKS IN THE MIDDLE CLASS ALL THE TIME?
AND NO, I'VE GOT NEWS
FOR YOU, IF YOU MAKE $250,000 YOU ARE NOT MIDDLE-CLASS.
I KNOW
YOU THINK YOU ARE BECAUSE YOU KNOW A BUNCH OF DUDES WHO MAKE
10 MILLION A YEAR, BUT YOU ARE NOT.
IN THOSE CIRCLES THEY GO, I
DON'T KNOW ANYONE WHO VOTES FOR TRUMP.
THEY ARE NOT MAKING UP
THE POLLS AT HUFFPOST, BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT WITH A CERTAIN
LENS YOU THINK I WILL DO THE MATH THIS WAY, NOT EVEN KNOWING
THAT UNCONSCIOUS BIAS.
WHEN THEY DO THEIR MATH YOU'VE GOT AN
ELECTORAL COLLEGE THAT HAS HILLARY CLINTON WINNING IN A
LANDSLIDE.
MY MAP DOES NOT SHOW LANDSLIDE.
I'VE GOT IT EXACTLY
WHERE I HAD IT THREE WEEKS AGO, WHICH IS RAZOR THIN MARGIN.
I
HAVE HILLARY CLINTON WINNING IN A RAZOR THIN MARGIN, BUT IT
COULD GO THE OTHER WAY IN 35% OF THE INSTANCES.
OH BOY.