( APPLAUSE )
WELCOME BACK TO "THE LATE SHOW."
MY NEXT GUEST IS A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION WHO
HAS ADVISED THREE PRESIDENTS ON RUSSIAN AND EUROPEAN POLICY.
HER NEW BOOK IS, "THERE IS NOTHING FOR YOU HERE."
PLEASE WELCOME FIONA HILL!
♪ ♪ ♪
>> Stephen: THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
AS I SAID, THE BOOK IS "THERE IS NOTHING FOR YOU HERE."
U.S. INTELLIGENCE OFFICER IN THE BUSH AND OBAMA ADMINISTRATIONS,
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL,.
THOUGH MOST PEOPLE HERE MIGHT RECOGNIZE YOU FIRST FROM YOUR
TESTIMONY IN THE 2019 IMPEACHMENT HEARINGS.
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ).
THE FIRST ONE, THE O.G., IMPEACHMENT CLASSIC.
YOU'RE A FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICER.
IT'S BEEN SIX DAYS SINCE RUSSIA INVADED UKRAINE.
AND THE E.U. HAS SHOWED UNPRECEDENTED UNIT NERESPONSETO
THIS.
WHAT IS MOST SURPRISING TO YOU ABOUT BOTH THE INVASION AND THE
RESPONSE?
>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, ON THE INVASION, SADLY, WHAT'S BEEN
MOST SURPRISING IS THAT IT'S GONE ON FOR SO LONG.
BECAUSE -- >> Stephen: WE WERE TOLD IT
WOULD BE VERY QUICK, LIGHTNING STRIKE, TAKE OVER THE CITIES,
AND YOU THOUGHT IT WOULD BE THE SAME THING.
>> I THINK EVERYBODY DID, THINKING OF THE PREPONDERANCE OF
POWER THE RUSSIANS HAVE, VIS-A-VIS THE UKRAINIANS.
WHEN THEY'RE FACING AN INVASION FORCE OF ALMOST 190,000 MEN WITH
ALL OF THE STATE-OF-THE-ART EQUIPMENT THAT THE RUSSIANS HAVE
GOT, WE THOUGHT THEY WOULD HAVE MOVED A LOT FASTER.
SO WE THINK IN PART THE RUSSIANS MIGHT HAVE INITIALLY BEEN TRYING
TO MINIMIZE CASUALTIES.
AND IN TERMS OF WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT THE EUROPEAN RESPONSE WAS,
YES, WE WERE PRETTY SURPRISED BY ALL OF THIS AS WELL.
AN I'M SURE THAT PUTIN AND THE RUSSIANS HAVE BEEN QUITE
SURPRISED, TOO.
BECAUSE THERE WAS AN ASSUMPTION, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT A LOT OF
BUSINESSES IN EUROPE WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY RELUCTANT TO PULL BACK
FROM THEIR INVESTMENTS IN RUSSIA, GIVEN OIL AND GAS AND
THE DOMINANCE OF THE RUSSIAN ENERGY SECTOR IN EUROPE THAT
PEOPLE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT, "I DON'T WANT TO FREEZE TO DEATH."
SO IT'S VERY SURPRISING TO SEE MAJOR OIL AND GAS COMPANIES, FOR
EXAMPLE, PULLING OUT OF RUSSIA, ALONG WITH ALL KINDS OF OTHER
BUSINESSES.
SO IT'S NOT JUST THE GOVERNMENT RESPONSE.
IT'S WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE HAS DONE ON A LEVEL OF BUSINESS,
COMMERCE, AND ORDINARY PEOPLE.
>> Stephen: WELL, SO FAR, THE GOVERNMENT SANCTIONS, RESTRICTED
AIR SPACE, BANNED RUSSIA FROM SWIFT.
THEY DON'T GET TO SEE THE NEW "BATMAN" MOVIE.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
>> Stephen: WHAT, SHORT OF DIRECT MILITARY INTERVENTION,
CAN OR SHOULD BE DONE IN YOUR OPINION?
>> THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF THINGS WE COULD BE DOING NOW, AND I'M
SURE A LOT OF THESE ARE UNDER DISCUSSION.
IT'S VERY DIFFICULT FOR US TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE AIR SPACE
OVER UKRAINE BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE SEEN AS DIRECT INTERFERENCE.
BUT WHAT WE'VE CLOSED AIR SPACE TO RUSSIAN COMMERCIAL CRAFT AND
ALSO MILITARY AIRCRAFT.
BUT THERE ARE HUMANITARIAN CORRIDORS THAT WE MIGHT NEED TO
BE ESTABLISHING THERE, BECAUSE WE HAVE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF
UKRAINIANS WHO ARE BASICALLY FLEEING INTO ALL THE NEIGHBORING
COUNTRIES.
WE'RE GOING TO NEED TO HAVE A LOT OF MEDICAL ASSISTANCE ON THE
BORDERS, FOR EXAMPLE, BECAUSE I CAN QUITE WELL IMAGINE WE WOULD
START TO BE HELPING WOUNDED UKRAINIAN SERVICEMEN, AS WELL AS
CIVILIANS.
AND THERE'S ANYTHING TO BE AN AWFUL LOT OF ASSISTANCE THAT IS
GOING TO COME IN, NOT JUST FOR THE REFUGEES IN PLACES LIKE
POLAND OR SLOVAKIA OR FURTHER AFIELD IN EUROPE.
BUT YOU'RE STARTING TO SEE PEOPLE GO IN THERE TO FIGHT.
IT'S NOT JUST UKRAINIANS.
UKRAINE HAS AN ENORMOUS NUMBER OF HEAVYWEIGHT BOXING CHAMPIONS
WILL OF THE WORLD, INCLUDING THE MAYOR OF KYIV.
AND HIS BROTHER, THEY'VE MADE THIS AMAZING SET OF VIDEOS FOR
SOCIAL MEDIA.
YOU'VE GOT ONE OF THE CURRENT HEAVYWEIGHT BOXING CHAMPIONS WHO
HAS GIVEN UP HIS FIGHT TO GO BACK.
YOU HAVE PEOPLE SAYING I WANT TO GO IN THERE AND DO SOMETHING TO
HELP THE UKRAINIANS, WHICH IS NOT SOMETHING I DON'T THINK
RUSSIANS WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATE.
>> Stephen: YOU HAVE STUDIED PUTIN FOR DECADES AND YOU MET
HIM MANY TIMES.
YOU SAY IN THE BOOK-- AGAIN "THERE IS NOTHING FOR YOU
HERE--" YOU WRITE ABOUT SITTING NEXT TO HIM A DINNER.
"A," WHY WOULD PUTIN LET SOMEONE WHO STUDIES PUTIN SIT NEXT TO
HIM AT A DINNER?
( LAUGHTER )
CONVERSATION LIKE?
IS IT LIGHT AND SPARKLY?
IS HE FLIRTY?
WHAT'S HE LIKE?
>> AS YOU CAN IMAGINE, IT'S PRETTY SPARSE.
AND THE MOST DISTURBING THING SITTING NEXT TO HIM AT DINNER--
HE WAS ON THE SIDE RIGHT HERE-- HE DIDN'T EAT OR DRINK ANYTHING.
THAT'S WHY I'M NOT TOUCHING THAT CUP OF WATER.
>> Stephen: NOT EVEN WATER.
>> HE DOESN'T EVEN TRUST HIS OWN WATER AND TEA THAT'S THERE, TEA
PROBABLY WE CAN THINK ABOUT PUTTING THE PILOANIUM IN THE TEA
FOR THE FORMER SPY IN LONDON.
>> Stephen: WAS THAT THE POLONIUM IN THE SUSHI?
>> IT COULD BE.
GIVEN THE RISKS -- >> Stephen: DID YOU TALK TO
HIM?
>> SORT OF.
THE THING THEY COULD SEE IS, LIKE YOU HAVE ON YOUR DESK HERE,
YOUR NOTES.
YOURS ARE IN VERY SMALL FONT.
HIS WERE IN ENORMOUS FONT SO I COULD SEE THEM, AND HE WASN'T
WEARING GLASSES AND I WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE HE WASN'T WEARING
CONTACT LENSES.
MOST OF US-- CERTAINLY ME-- I COULD READ HIS NOTES BECAUSE
THEY WERE THAT BIG IN TERMS OF FONT.
THE ONE THING I NOTICED IS HE'S SHORTSIGHTED.
HE'S NOT THE SUPERMAN WE THINK OF.
>> Stephen: YOU CAN'T READ MY CARD?
>> I CAN'T READ THE CARD.
>> Stephen: YOU CAN'T READ, "GET HER TO DRINK THE TEA."
NOW, DO YOU THINK THAT THERE'S ANY FEAR OF HIS OWN OLIGARCHS,
YOU KNOW, LIKE BECAUSE THERE'S NO HONOR AMONG THIEVES.
AND IF HE SHOWS WEAKNESS, THEY COULD TURN ON HIM.
>> I DON'T THINK IT'S REALLY THE OLIGARCHS SO MUCH AS THE PEOPLE
IN HIS INNER CIRCLE.
SO THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE COME UP WITH THIS PLAN OF INVADING
UKRAINE, LET'S SAY FIRST OF ALL, IT'S NOT RUSSIAN PEOPLE, AND
IT'S NOT ALL THE PEOPLE IN RUSSIAN BUSINESS.
IT'S A VERY SMALL CIRCLE OF PEOPLE THAT INCLUDES THE HEAD OF
INTELLIGENCE, ALL OF THESE SECURITY SERVICES.
AND THESE ARE NOT THE KIND OF GUYS WHO HAVE YACHTS OFF MONACO,
BASICALLY PALACES IN PARIS OR ANYTHING LIKE THIS.
THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY MUCH ROOTED IN RUSSIA ITSELF.
AND I DON'T THINK THEY'RE TOO WORRIED ABOUT ALL OF THESE
SANCTIONS AND EVERYTHING THAT'S CUT OFF, BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT
INVESTED IN THE WEST.
THEY'VE REALLY GOT THAT BUNKER SIEGE MENTALITY.
AND THEY'RE THE PEOPLE HE PROBABLY DOES HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT.
BECAUSE IF THIS WAR DOESN'T GO WELL, IF IT LOOKS LIKE RUSSIA IS
LOSING, I DON'T THINK THEY CARE ABOUT THE WORLD OF PUBLIC
OPINION, BUT IF THERE'S NOT ANY MOVEMENT ON THE GROUND, IF THAT
GREAT CONVOY OF TANKS JUST BASICALLY RUNS OUT OF GAS AND IS
JUST LEFT THERE AND THEY HAVE TO MOVE FURTHER-- IF THEY HAVE TO
LAY WASTE TO UKRAINE TO GET A SUCCESS, THAT'S ALREADY GOING TO
BE THE THE KIND OF PROBLEMS.
YOU MIGHT THEN START TO GET A BACKLASH FROM THOSE PEOPLE
THINKING THIS HAS NOT GONE AS THEY INTEND.
>> Stephen: NOW, YOU'VE SAID IN ANOTHER INTERVIEW THAT, YOU
KNOW, HE DOESN'T BUILD WEAPONS NOT TO USE THEM.
SO IT IS-- IT IS-- IT IS CONCEIVABLE HE WOULD USE A
TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPON.
PUTTING THAT ASIDE, THAT IS THE IMPETUS FOR THIS QUESTION IS
WHAT OFF RAMP IS THERE FOR PUTIN, SHY OF ACTUALLY TAKING
AND HOLDING UKRAINE-- BECAUSE THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
SUCCESS OF HIS ARMY SO FAR AND THE SIZE OF HIS MILITARY-- THAT
THEY CAN HOLD THAT SPACE.
WHAT CAN HE GET, SHY OF UKRAINE AND THE WEST SAYING, "OKAY, TAKE
UKRAINE," THAT WOULD ALLOW HIM TO LEAVE AND SAVE FACE.
>> THAT'S THE REAL PROBLEM WE HAVE RIGHT NOW.
WE HAVE TO THINK LONG AND HARD HOW WE STRUCTURE, FIRST OF ALL,
DISCUSSIONS AND NEGOTIATIONS, WHICH WE CAN'T IN THE MIDDLE OF
A MASSIVE INVASION BECAUSE WE WANT TO SEE THE PULLBACK FROM
UKRAINE, AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF ALL OF THE FORCES, NOT JUST THE
PULLBACK FROM HOSTILITIES.
THE PROBLEM IS, JUST AS YOU'VE LAID IT OUT, PUTIN WANTS US TO
TAKE AN OFF RAMP.
HE WANTS FULL CAPITULATION-- HE ALREADY SAID THAT.
HE TOLD THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY TO LAY DOWN THEIR ARMS AND EVEN
OVERTHROW PRESIDENT ZELENSKY AND THEIR GOVERNMENT.
THAT'S NOT HAPPENING.
HE WANTS TO TAKE AS MUCH TERRITORY AS HE POSSIBLY CAN AND
BASICALLY HAVE A NEGOTIATION THAT LEAVES HIM IN CHARGE OF AS
MUCH OF UKRAINE AS HE CAN POSSIBLY HAVE.
THAT IS UNACCEPTABLE.
WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO BE THINKING ABOUT HOW WE TRY TO GET
SOME PRESSURE ON HIM TO FIND A WAY OUT OF THIS THAT WE'RE ALL
GOING TO HAVE TO FIGURE OUT.
AND I THINK, HONESTLY, ONE OF THE FEW WAYS THAT WE MIGHT BE
ABLE TO GET TO HIM, IS IF FOR EXAMPLE, PRESIDENT Z I AND THE
CHINESE EXPRESSED SOME DISPLEASURE, BUT THAT SEEMS A
PRETTY LONG SHOT AS WELL.
>> Stephen: FIONA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE.
THE BOOK IS "THERE IS NOTHING FOR YOU ERE."
IT'S AVAILABLE NOW.
FIONA HILL, EVERYBODY.
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ).
WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.