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Something might just be in the air this week.
Two things, actually.
Neither of which are great.
First up, a novel strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza, aka bird flu,
has been detected in birds in North America for the first time in seven years.
And scientists are now reporting that this strain has been detected in more than
40 wild bird species across 30 U.S. states.
We’re still not safely out of the last pandemic in humans, and experts who study this kind
of bird flu will be quick to point out that this is a very different kind of problem.
But it is worth keeping an eye on, and we may already be feeling the pinch at the grocery store.
The highly pathogenic strain that has cropped up is part of the group of flu viruses
that we’ve known about since the '90s.
It’s believed to be spread by migratory birds,
which is why it’s turned up relatively easily in Asia, the Middle East, North America, and Europe.
“Highly pathogenic” sounds kind of scary, but it’s actually a technical measure
based around how deadly the strain is to chickens.
Specifically.
I don’t make the rules.
Our first heads-up that it was back in North America came when chickens
and other birds got sick and died in a farm in Newfoundland, Canada in December 2021.
Now, these strains have been known to very sporadically spread to humans,
but the danger to people from this new one seems low.
The only person known to have been infected with this new strain is a person in the UK
in their 80s who kept a flock of over 100 ducks, at least some of whom lived inside their home.
Even then, this person didn’t have any symptoms.
So hopefully this means we don’t have to worry about it causing problems in humans.
But that said, it is pretty bad for the birds.
A lot of wild birds have died, notably waterfowl and even bald eagles.
Wild birds have also passed it on to places like poultry farms,
where there have already been big culls of infected birds.
Experts are concerned about what this means for the poultry industry,
since past outbreaks have been pretty damaging, money-wise.
Because those culls are already having an effect on chicken and egg prices.
Which, you know, might be kind of hard to notice,
what with all the other things currently affecting food prices.
And because this particular outbreak is affecting tons of wild birds, it may not burn itself out
as quickly as previous appearances of this same batch of flu viruses.
It could continue to harass the poultry industry for at least a few years, or longer.
That’s not a pandemic in humans like the ones we’ve been through,
but it is a threat to a cheap source of protein.
In the meantime, experts are recommending that people avoid
messing around with wild birds or sick poultry as much as possible.
Some are also recommending people temporarily take down bird feeders.
If you do need to handle birds, like if you work on a chicken farm,
or if you just really like ducks, public health agencies are recommending full protective gear.
The other thing to watch out for in the air might be car pollution… maybe.
On April 12, U.S. President Biden announced that he would
temporarily lift the United States’ summertime ban on what’s known as E15 gasoline.
E15 is gasoline with more ethanol in it than usual.
In the US, over 98% of the gasoline people buy is mixed with some amount of ethanol,
which is an alcohol usually derived from corn.
Usually the mix is about 10% ethanol, known as E10.
E15, then, is simply gasoline with up to 15% ethanol.
The idea is that by helping to stretch manufacturers’ gasoline supplies,
prices can be lower, helping people deal with the current highs.
However, some people are worried about the effect this may have on air quality.
Since 2011, the sale of E15 hasn’t been allowed in most US states
between June 1 and September 15th.
The Environmental Protection Agency created the ban for fear of ozone pollution.
Ozone is a chemical made of three oxygen atoms bonded together.
You’ve probably heard about it in the context of the ozone layer,
a region high in the atmosphere where it blocks UV light from the sun.
And that is good!
But at ground level, ozone can be a problem.
It can contribute to smog and trigger asthma attacks.
And using gasoline can contribute to ozone pollution.
As gasoline, both the pure stuff and the stuff mixed with ethanol, evaporates, it can react
to produce compounds known as nitrogen oxides as well as volatile organic compounds.
These can escape during transport or from the car’s fuel tank
or engine and then react in the presence of sunlight and produce ozone.
The EPA uses a specific measure called Reid Vapor Pressure,
which measures how strongly the gasoline vapor mix pushes against the liquid gas
at a certain temperature, to predict how much gasoline will evaporate.
Because gasoline evaporates more readily when conditions are warm, the EPA creates rules
based on this measure for what kinds of gasoline can be burned at certain times of year.
And according to their initial thinking,
E15 should evaporate more easily in summer than they’re willing to allow.
More evaporation means more emissions, which means more ozone.
In the winter, when conditions are cold and dark, this isn’t as much of a problem.
But in the summer, it could be bad.
Hence the ban.
Now, it’s probably worth noting that there’s been some pushback on this rule,
since some studies have suggested that E15 isn’t that big of an air quality risk in summer.
But other studies disagree.
The use of ethanol in gasoline is also a little contentious,
due to debate over whether or not it’s really better carbon-wise.
So even though the idea is to bring down gas prices,
there could be a tradeoff in the form of increased ozone pollution.
Which would not be the best news for people looking for some relief at the pump,
or also…any of the other people.
But since we’re not actually sure that would be the case, this could actually be an opportunity
to study E15 gas and find out.
And maybe save a few cents on the drive to work.
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