Improvement Pill here in our previous video i went over the only feasible method that i know of
for getting out of the rat race quickly in that video i mentioned that it's key to find
asymmetrical bets but i didn't go over exactly how to do this so today i'm going to show you the
steps that i follow when looking for these sorts of investments now of course a little disclaimer
i'm just some guy on the internet this is not financial advice this is simply a description
of my personal thought process when it comes to finding investments to bet on please conduct
your own research and speak with your personal financial advisor before doing anything with your
money with that being said let's begin the first thing i do when looking for asymmetrical bets
which again are bets that have limited downside with insane upsides basically a bet that has a
decent chance of paying out extraordinarily high gains is to look for what are called contrarian
narratives contrarian narratives are basically stories about the world that the large majority
of people don't know about or don't believe in i turn to two sources when looking for these
unique stories the first is the platform called realvision.com which is sort of like netflix
but filled with interviews with some of the greatest investors in the world
over there there are dozens of videos being released every month by legendary investors
talking about what narratives they're currently looking into by watching those videos i'm exposed
to ideas that i would have never even known about had i just stuck to mainstream media
for example i discovered that there is an entire market for uranium which is used to power nuclear
power plants i didn't even know you could invest in that the second source that i turn to is reddit
which is essentially a compilation of forums there are many forms also known as subreddits like wall
street bets investing personal finance and even cryptocurrency which give you a wide range of
perspectives when it comes to different narratives that exist in the world although the people here
are mostly anonymous it's still a great place to go to when hunting for contrarian narratives now
once i discover a story that i find interesting i will then check to see if it's popular you see
in order for a bet to be contrarian it can't be popular that's the opposite of what contrarian
means i do this by using a free tool called google trends to see just how popular a particular phrase
is around the world all i have to do is type in the keyword for what i'm researching and look
at the data for example last year in early 2020 i decided to look into the cryptocurrency ethereum
i went to google trends and typed in the word ethereum and i saw that the search volume around
the world for it was only about 10 compared to its all-time high during the infamous 2017 bull run
this meant that the large majority of investors around the world were not looking at ethereum
as an investment in early 2020. the reason i do this is simple i don't want to bet on something
that's already at its peak level of popularity because that means that a large percentage of
the gains have already been seen you see if i invested in ethereum at four thousand dollars
a couple of months ago spring of 2021 where its peak popularity was at sure there was a chance
that it would keep going up but in order for me to double my money it would have to go all the way up
to eight thousand dollars now compare this to the summer of 2020 where ethereum was only sitting at
around two hundred dollars it wasn't popular at all during that period of time according to google
trends so in order for me to double my money all it had to do was become a bit more popular again
and reach four hundred dollars ethereum became way more popular than that and climbed all the
way to four thousand dollars now i didn't time the peak perfectly but i was still able to capture a
good 15 x on my initial investment that's what i mean by extraordinary gains now just because
something is contrarian just because there's a lot of potential for extraordinary gains
does not mean that it's a good bet the next thing i do is make sure that there is enough content to
consume on any particular narrative before placing any bets because i need to get a clear idea of
what the risks are and this is why i usually don't bet big on smaller cryptocurrencies they promise
you the world but there simply isn't enough information to figure out what the risks are i
like to go for things that have at least 20 hours of content to consume and this has to be good
content not just comments on some random forum but articles and videos from experienced investors
that i know have a good track record debating both sides i'm looking for content from smart people
who think that the narrative won't come true and from those who think that it will come true
that way i can listen to both of their arguments and decide for myself what i think might happen i
usually turn to youtube real vision twitter medium and reddit when looking for content like this
now once i find a potential investment that meets all of this criteria that i'm also interested in
i will then dive down the rabbit hole and binge research as much content as i can on the subject
last year when i dip my toes into the crypto world i consumed dozens of audio books
videos and articles adding up to over 100 hours of research now there are two things that i make
sure to ask myself while conducting my research number one what has to happen for this narrative
to become true number two what has to happen for this narrative to be proven false if i
can't clearly answer both of these questions and be able to debate both sides then i will
not place a bet because it means that i don't have a clear understanding of the risk once i'm able to
answer these two questions extensively only then do i place my bet now here are a couple of more
things that i keep in mind when doing this first i remind myself that nothing is a hundred percent
not even close which means that there is always and i mean always a chance that i'm wrong which is
why i make sure to never ever bet more than i can afford to lose i'll even imagine a scenario where
my bet doesn't work out and ask myself would i be okay in that situation with the amount of money
i had just lost would my lifestyle be the same if not then i'm betting too much the second thing i
keep in mind is something that i've learned recently which is to avoid betting on time
you see for the past year i've been playing with options where i'm essentially betting on
two things the direction something is going in and also the time frame of which it will happen
the problem is it's incredibly hard to guess the time i was right about a couple of things
some of the narratives i bet on became true but it simply took longer than i thought it would
and i lost a crap ton of money because of this had i just been patient and less greedy if i only bet
on the direction by simply buying and holding an asset or a stock then i would have actually made
a lot more money this episode was brought to you by audible in order to become a better thinker you
need to open yourself to new ideas that people shrug off as crazy and audible is the perfect
place for this audible allows you to consume contrary narratives on the go wherever you are
just the other week i took an 8 hour flight and i was able to listen to an audio book the entire
time audible is now giving members even more with the all-new plus catalog all members will have
access to thousands of select audio books podcasts audible originals guided fitness and meditation
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today on the plane i listened to in plain sight by Ross Coulthart which is an extremely contrarian
new book putting forth a very well done argument for the existence of ufos yes i know it sounds
crazy but it doesn't get more contrarian than this open up your mind give the idea a shot and dive in
if you truly want to become a great thinker besides that guys stay tuned
you