Today's video was made possible by Masterworks.
More on this in a moment.
Vladimir Putin has already conquered an entire country.
And he has done so without firing a single shot – that’s right!
While everyone is talking about Ukraine, there is another country that has totally fallen
under Russia's thumb without many people realizing it.
So which country are we talking about?
Exactly!
Belarus.
For those who are not familiar with this country, we are talking about the last dictatorship
in Europe.
And we’re not the ones throwing around the labels: the president of Belarus himself,
Alexander Lukashenko, acknowledges it.
Check it out.
(An authoritarian style of rule is characteristic of me, and I have always admitted it.
– Alexander Lukashenko)
(It's better to be a dictator than gay – Alexander Lukashenko)
In other words: Belarus is a savage dictatorship.
But...
Why do we say that Putin has conquered them?
Well, pay attention.
On 27 February 2022, Belarus approved a substantial change in its Constitution.
It did so through a referendum with all the democratic guarantees one would expect from
a country like Belarus: that is, NONE.
With these new amendments, Belarus will allow Russia to establish nuclear bases on its territory.
A territory where thousands of Russian troops have already been based before deployment
in Ukraine.
In political and economic matters, Belarus has already signed agreements with Russia
to have common policies in matters such as taxation, finance and industrial policy.
The ultimate goal is to end up forming the so-called "United State", that is, that Belarus
will end up forming a political union with Russia.
We have told you in previous videos on VisualPolitik: the Kremlin has always dreamed of annexing
Belarus.
This goes back to even before Putin became President.
However, the Belarusian dictator, Lukashenka, had always been very reluctant regarding this
union.
Now things have changed.
You could say that Lukashenka owes his political survival to Putin.
The Ukrainian war has been only the pretext to move faster in the annexation.
Yes, it is true, Moscow is bleeding economically and militarily.
The Ukraine war has been a calamitous decision on almost all fronts.
But, we have to be fair, as far as Belarus is concerned, Putin could score a success.
The question now is.
What would happen if Lukashenka were to fall?
Better yet, what if it was Putin's support that brought Lukashenka down?
Listen up.
(Mass anti-war protests took place in Belarus: 800 detained - Voice of Belarus)
But wait a minute!
We're not just talking about protests.
The citizens of Belarus are doing everything they can to stop the war in Ukraine.
And yes, we are talking about much more than protests.
Take a look at this news item.
(Railway connections between Belarus and Ukraine sabotaged to hinder Russian troops - Railtech)
We are talking about groups organized to make life impossible for Russian troops stationed
in Belarus.
And they are not just a few.
At the moment, you could say that Lukashenka has almost all Belarusian society against
him.
The question is, what about his army?
Think about it: a dictator like Lukashenka needs to have his armed forces under control.
What would happen if he lost that control?
Is it really possible for Belarus to fall out of Putin's hands…
right at the point that it is about to become a region of Russia?
Today we are going to answer these questions but before weI go any further, let me tell
you a little bit about Masterworks.
I’m sure you'll agree that if the first few months of 2022, and generally the last
two years, have proven anything, it's that the only thing that's certain is that nothing
is certain.
This also applies to the world of finance.
To protect the fruits of our labor, most experts tend to say that the best option is to diversify,
or as they used to say, not to put all your eggs in one basket.
Recently, JP Morgan pointed out that in this diversification process, alternative assets
have ceased to be a simple alternative and are here to stay.
And what better example of an alternative asset than the contemporary art market?
This is where Masterworks comes in.
Masterworks allows people from anywhere in the world to access a market that, until recently,
was inaccessible to ordinary mortals: art.
But is contemporary art profitable?
Well, this market achieved better data than the SP 500 itself, including dividends.
Appreciating by a not inconsiderable 164% in recent years, from 1995 to 2021.
The process works like this:
Masterworks' analysis team studies thousands of data points to find financially attractive
works with appreciation potential.
They then buy them for amounts ranging from $1 million to $30 million and securitize them
by sending a public offering through the SEC.
Finally, they hold the work for 3 to 10 years until it is sold.
If you want to take a look at Masterworks for yourself, we’ll leave you a link where
you can skip the waiting list and create an account directly at no cost.
Please remember a very important point: no one can predict the future, and past results
do not assure future returns.
And, as always when it comes to investing: be very careful, there is no such thing as
risk-free.
(THE SOVIET SILICON VALLEY)
Are you familiar with a video game called "World of Tanks"?
Surely many of you have played it.
Or you may have heard it mentioned on a YouTube channel.
It is one of the most popular video games in recent years.
What you probably don't know is that this game is made... in Belarus!
In Belarus, I kid you not!
And no, it is not made by a US company with offices in Minsk.
The company that develops World of Tanks was founded with Belarusian capital and has its
headquarters in the country's capital.
All this is surprising considering that Belarus is a dictatorship with just over 9 million
inhabitants.
But we are talking about a country that is wealthier than it seems.
Let's put it plainly, Lukashenka may be an abominable dictator but....
He is no fool!
Since he came to power in 1994, he made sure to achieve three goals: economic stability,
peace and sovereignty.
And, in a way, he has succeeded.
You could say that Belarus belongs to the group of former Soviet republics that did
not even try to make a transition to capitalism.
This can even be seen in its national symbols, which maintain the Soviet aesthetics.
In fact, the Communist Party is still part of the government.
Unlike Russia or Ukraine, Belarus did not even consider a privatization process.
Today, more than 50% of its GDP is in the hands of State-owned companies.
The State controls the most important sectors, from gas coming from Russia to the country's
main export: potassium, which is used to make fertilizers – that’s right!
In many respects, Belarus is still anchored in the Soviet Union.
As you can imagine, Russia is the country's main trading partner.
Given this scenario, many of you might think that this country has always been a puppet
of the Kremlin, right?
However, nothing could be further from the truth!
(No matter who comes to Belarusian land, I will fight.
Even if it is Putin.
– Alexander Lukashenka)
Your ears don’t deceive you!
Lukashenka may be Putin's ally... but he is not a puppet.
In fact, his politics have been very pragmatic.
Yes, it's true, the economy maintains a half-communist system and is very connected to Russia.
But they have also received all kinds of financial aid from the European Union and that’s not
all!
In the purest style of Chinese Communism, Lukashenka has also created Special Economic
Zones.
This is where the famous "High Tech Industrial Park", created in 2005, comes in.
It is an attempt to create a small Soviet version of Silicon Valley.
Companies in this industrial park are exempt from paying corporate taxes.
They also do not pay real estate taxes.
And workers have a flat income tax rate of 9%.
And you’re probably wondering, so has this Soviet Silicon Valley really worked?
Well, yes, it has.
To give you an idea, in 2018, the High Tech Industrial Park already had 388 technology
companies employing 30,000 people.
This is where World of Tanks was born, among many other games.
It may seem like an unimportant detail.
But remember that we are talking about a low-income country with 9 million inhabitants.
This industrial park alone accounts for more than 1.5% of the country's entire GDP.
In other words: we can make fun of Lukashenka all we want.
But he has achieved what not even Putin was capable of: having an internationally competitive
technology industry.
And indeed, check out this next graph.
If you look, you will see that Belarus is almost twice as rich as Ukraine.
And this comparison is painful.
Ukraine is a corrupt country, yes, but at least it tried to develop a democracy.
With all its imperfections, Ukrainians have been able to enjoy a certain level of freedom.
Belarus has not even made an effort to maintain the slightest democratic pose.
It is a dictatorship.
Period.
However, in the economic field, it seems that the Belarusian model has worked better.
In other words: it has been able to deliver what it promised; economic stability.
The question is, how long will it last?
We’ll take a look at that right now.
(DUEL OF THE ALPHA MALES)
In 1990, Belarus became independent from the Soviet Union.
In 1994, they drafted their constitution and Lukashenka became dictator of the country.
However, in 1997, the then Russian president, Boris Yeltsin, signed the "Treaty for the
United State" with Alexander Lukashenka.
This treaty was an attempt to unite Russia and Belarus into a supranational entity.
And, as you can imagine, this is the kind of thing that no dictator is happy about.
After all, every good dictator wants to be able to rule his country with no strings attached.
Neither inside nor outside its borders.
The moment you sign an agreement with someone much bigger than you, you can lose the power
to do whatever you want.
Conclusion?
Lukashenka said to Yeltsin: Look, Boris, I will sign anything you want.
We Russians and Belarusians are first cousins... we go hand in hand together…
But let’s take a rain check joining together into one State.
Now isn’t a great time for me...
I have a lot of problems these days.
So yeah, let’s revisit this in a few years.
And that was the position of Belarus for decades....
Until this gentleman came along!
Exactly!
Vladimir Putin.
And, as you know, if Putin gets something into his head, he can't be convinced otherwise.
By 2019, Putin came to Lukashenka and said:
--Hey, Alexander, my boy...
I've been looking at some old papers around here and it seems we have a signed agreement....Oops!
The partnership agreement...
I forgot all about that!
I signed it with Yeltsin, you know...
Yeltsin...
Alexander Lukashenka!
Or Lukashenko!
Or however you pronounce your last name.
We have a signed agreement here and you're already late in joining Mother Russia.And
that's how relations between Belarus and Russia started to go awry.
We tell you about it in a video that I’ll link for you in the description.
Putin and Lukashenka engaged in an "alpha male" duel.
Putin threatened to cut off gas supplies.
Lukashenka threatened to steal gas from Russia.
Literally.
He even went so far as to wink at the United States itself.
It looked like these two countries were about to become enemies.
And then, the following happened.
(THE PEOPLE UNITED...
HAVE BEEN DEFEATED)
In the year 2020, Belarus called elections.
This does not mean that they became a democracy.
Elections in Belarus are so fake that they don't even make an effort to hide that they
cheat.
In this case, Lukashenka was ready to "win the elections" again //// AIR QUOTES WITH
FINGERS//// by no less than 80% of the vote.
But, in this case, the opposition was really organized.
And the streets of Minsk were filled with demonstrators.
To give you an idea, Lukashenka's police put more than 6,000 demonstrators in jail.
And the leader of the opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, went into exile in Lithuania.
From there, she has become an international symbol.
And I know what many of you are thinking – the Belarusian people have united!
The dictator's days are numbered!
Well, no.
I am sorry to disappoint you but Lukashenka is still in power.
Why?
Firstly because he has control of the army and the police.
Secondly because the economy was doing moderately well.
Thirdly because, at the last moment, his older brother came to his rescue.
(Belarus protests: Putin ready to send Lukashenko military support - The Guardian)
The outcome?
Business as usual in Belarus.
The European Union said it was very "deeply concerned" about Belarus.
Meanwhile, World of Tanks became one of the most popular video games in Russia.
However...
The year 2022 changed everything.
Why?
We’ll find out right now.
(COULD LUKASHENKA FALL?)
The million dollar question at this point is; Are there Belarusian troops in Ukraine?
Ukraine says yes.
Belarus says NO.
No way.
That under no circumstances would they send soldiers to Ukraine.
And you may ask why?
I mean, Lukashenka is not exactly afraid of speaking his mind.
And Putin has asked him for help.
Russian troops have been stationed on Belarusian territory for more than a year.
What’s more, Lukashenka has just approved a constitution that puts his country in Russia's
hands.
So why isn't he sending in his army?
Or, at least...
Why doesn't he dare to say openly that he will?
Listen up.
('Defections and resignations in Belarusian military prevented country from joining Ukraine
invasion' - Israel Hayom)
This news story may not be true.
It is only information provided by the Belarusian opposition.
But the truth is that everything indicates that it is true.
According to several sources, even the Chief of the High General Staff has resigned.
Think of it this way: it is one thing to support a dictator in times of peace and to beat up
a dissident.
It is quite another to engage in a suicidal war.
It is one thing to be bad and another to be a fool.
Although come to think of it...
Are there Belarusian troops in Ukraine?
Actually, the answer is...
Yes!
Officially we can confirm that there are Belarusian troops in Ukraine.
However, they are not the ones you would expect.
(Hundreds of Belarusians join Ukraine's fight against Russian imperialism - Atlantic Council)
Exactly!
The Belarusian opposition is much more motivated than the army.
Some have gone to fight in Ukraine.
Others have stayed in the country doing things like this.
(Belarus arrests four for trying to sabotage railway links to Ukraine - Euronews)
And take note because these are no longer simple protests.
We are talking about a highly motivated and well-organized opposition.
But that’s not all!
With or without troops in Ukraine, Belarus has suffered almost the same economic sanctions
as Russia.
And that explains news items like this.
(Belarus' biggest games company is leaving the country – and Russia - Steamgameguides)
And they are not the only ones!
Practically all of that Soviet Silicon Valley we were talking about earlier is leaving.
And with it, all the workers.
We are talking about companies that are moving their entire workforces elsewhere.
And remember that Belarus has no natural gas and no oil.
Alexander Lukashenka is in a much worse situation than even Vladimir Putin.
You don't believe me?
Well, take a look at this graph.
Unlike the RUSSIAN ruble, the Belarusian ruble has not recovered from the devaluation.
In other words, they have suffered the effects of sanctions but have not been able to make
the currency maneuvers that Moscow has made.
But not only that!
Unlike Putin, Lukashenkadoes have a very well organized opposition.
Who would be Putin's biggest opponent?
Probably Alexei Navalny who, despite however much support he has on the Internet... is
in jail!
In Belarus, Lukashenka's main opponent is Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who right now is
meeting with all the leaders of the world.
But it doesn’t end there!
Unlike Putin, Lukashenka does not have the unconditional support of the army.
It is difficult to know how many people support him and how many would be willing to rise
up against him.
But it is clear that he cannot afford to play with fire.
So now the question is over to you, could Alexander Lukashenka fall?
Do you really think Putin can send many troops to protect him, now that almost all of his
army is in Ukraine, is it possible to do something from the US or Europe to bring about the end
of Lukashenka?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
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