In 2020 one story has consumed everything…
…but in 2021, the world will start looking to life…
…beyond the pandemic
So, behind the headlines…
…what are the other moments you should be watching out for…
…in the year ahead?
From the launch of an asteroid-smashing spaceship…
…to the event that could help the world…
…turn a corner on climate change
Here are five stories set to shape the post-covid world
In 2021, democracy will be especially tested
There will be an abundance of elections…
…many postponed from 2020 by the pandemic
And in fragile democracies…
…autocratic leaders will use the excuse of covid-19…
…to crack down on opposition…
...such as in Uganda…
…which is due to hold its presidential election in January
Maria is a 25-year-old activist…
…who is campaigning for the opposition candidate Bobi Wine
But Ugandan authorities have banned rallies because of covid-19
They are not implementing covid guidelines…
…with people who live day-to-day lives
They are only implementing these guidelines…
…with opposition politicians, that is all
So it is just an excuse
At a recent rally, police arrested Bobi Wine…
…accusing him of flouting covid-19 restrictions
When they were arresting Bobi Wine…
…what they did was to first block all the vehicles…
…that were around…
…and only his vehicle was allowed to be in front
They pepper-sprayed all his bodyguards…
…those were the personal bodyguards…
…not the ones the Electoral Commission gave to us
They pepper-sprayed them and they were beaten
Protests broke out…
…almost 1,000 people were arrested and 45 were killed
Crackdowns on opposition politicians…
…are not just happening in Uganda
Since the pandemic started…
…democracy and human rights have deteriorated in 80 countries…
…according to Freedom House, a think-tank
The largest number are in Africa
This is certainly a problem in Africa…
…because there are many countries there…
…that have made a partial transition…
…towards democracy and respect for human rights…
…but because it’s fairly recent…
…and the institutions that protect it are not particularly strong…
…there’s always the danger of backsliding
Uganda’s president, Yoweri Museveni…
…has been in power for almost 35 years
In 2017 he changed the country’s constitution…
…to allow him to serve a sixth term
The pandemic has made it easier to block opposition and dissent
All we want is our freedom back
All we want is to change power…
…and so that power comes back to the people…
…and the institutions that must protect the people
That is all we want
Maria can’t even campaign on social media
Government rules brought in in 2020…
…require many internet users to register with a regulator…
…before they can publish anything online
Across the world, 91 countries have experienced…
…new or increased restrictions…
…on the news media as a result of the pandemic
I think there’s a real danger…
…that democracy will continue to retreat in 2021
I’m hoping that eventually we’ll be able to get…
…widespread vaccines out there…
…and that will make it easier for people…
…to gather together and to organise…
…which is what you need to be able to do…
…if you’re going to resist tyranny
We must campaign so that we win this election
We are ready to fight for our victory
It is either bullets or a ballot
2021 will be a tipping point for electric cars…
…as more manufacturers roll out their electric range
Suddenly, there is going to be a huge array of electric vehicles…
…for people to choose from
In the autumn…
…the gas-guzzling SUV brand of General Motors, Hummer…
…will start production on all-electrics cars
And at the end of the year…
…Elon Musk’s Tesla will launch its futuristic-looking Cybertruck
So I present you the Cybertruck
The Cybertruck may not be to everyone’s taste
I think that’s significant because the American market…
…the real profits there are to be made on pick-ups
So Tesla have come out with their own version of the pick-up…
…the Cybertruck
The electric Hummer is trying to tap into that market…
…it’s America’s biggest and most profitable market
Investment in the electric revolution has surged
Over 250 firms are currently manufacturing electric vehicles…
…and 47 battery factories are under construction
Tesla, the market leader…
…has seen its share price surge
It’s now so valuable, it’s been added to the S&P 500…
…America’s main stockmarket index…
…putting it in the same bracket…
…as companies like Apple and Microsoft
Tesla is a remarkable story…
…no car company has gone from nothing to where Tesla is…
…in such a rapid period of time
So you have to take your hat off to Elon Musk…
…for doing that
Tesla’s success convinced established carmakers…
…that there was a market for electric cars
The car company that has made the biggest bet on the future…
…is Volkswagen…
…which has invested huge sums
But all car companies are introducing electric models
Every week you hear about a new plan…
…to electrify an old model…
…or bring out a new model…
…from various car companies
So it really is picking up the pace
Although all car sales dropped in 2020…
…in 2021 they are expected to pick up again…
…and sales of battery-powered vehicles…
…are projected to grow rapidly over the next decade
2021 is just the start…
…if more governments commit to future bans…
…on the sale of petrol and diesel cars…
…the growth in the electric-vehicle sector…
…could accelerate even more
In November, all eyes will be on Glasgow, Scotland…
…as world leaders meet for the UN’s climate-change summit
Known as COP26, it was originally scheduled for 2020…
…but postponed due to the pandemic
If it had gone ahead as planned…
…COP26 would have marked five years since the Paris agreement
Built into the Paris agreement was this ratchet mechanism…
…that basically said governments need to…
…every five years, increase the promises to cut emissions
The Paris agreement set a target of limiting global warming…
…to between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius…
…above pre-industrial temperatures
But experts predict…
…that the pledges governments made in 2015...
…would not be enough to achieve this target
So this ratchet mechanism, the purpose of COP26…
…is really to get closer to this target of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius…
…and what’s needed for that are bigger, better promises…
…to cut national emissions
It looks likely that 2021 will be the boldest year ever…
…for tackling climate change
So the EU has said that it will reach net-zero emissions by 2050
Climate change is caused by us…
…so in other words, it’s up to us to make a turnaround
They have an expansive package of policies…
…that they will be expanding on and agreeing on in 2021…
…for how they head towards that goal
The surprise announcement really of this year…
…came in September when Xi Jinping announced…
…that China would be heading towards carbon neutrality by 2060
The details of how China does this
…are still unclear and are anticipated at some point in 2021
In America, Donald Trump has undermined global efforts…
…to tackle global warming
We are going to put our coalminers…
…back to work
In 2021 this could all change
What is our mandate?
I believe it’s this
The battle to save our planet…
…by getting climate under control
Joe Biden is going to mark a real U-turn…
…in particular American foreign climate policy
Biden has promised to put America back…
…into the Paris agreement…
…pretty much as soon as he enters the Oval office…
…and as such, America will once again be influencing…
…global climate politics
America is the world’s second-biggest emitter
Joe Biden has promised…
…to make the country carbon-neutral by 2050
His greatest challenge, however…
…is getting these ambitious pledges…
…through Congress
There is a lot of ease in making these long-term promises
It’s a lot harder to back those up…
…with the real policies at home that are going to achieve them
But having the European Union, the United States, China…
all headed towards some kind of…
…mid-century target, 2050, 2060…
…of eliminating their emissions…
…should give confidence to the rest of the countries…
…that they can also amp up their targets
So all of that put together means that 2021…
…could really mark a turning point…
…in international climate negotiations
In 2021, the eagerly awaited next instalment…
…in the James Bond franchise…
…will be released…
…as shown in this slick trailer
Why would I betray you?
We all have our secrets
But its release could be eclipsed at the box office…
…by a movie most people in the West…
…may never even have heard of…
...the slapstick comedy, “Detective Chinatown 3”…
…will help China’s box office to take more money than America’s…
…to become the biggest in the world
For a century, Hollywood has ruled the movie world…
…now it’s China’s turn
Hollywood was the first kind of global, truly global film industry…
…which exported worldwide
And it has held that dominance for a long time
Now with China becoming the biggest box office…
…it feels like a milestone…
…simply because it sort of shakes that Hollywood dominance a little
China’s cinema industry has been growing…
…for a number of years
But in 2021, projections show America’s box-office revenue stagnating…
…as China’s continue to rise
China’s building more screens…
…particularly in third-tier and fourth-tier cities
So it was something that was going to happen
It was just a question of what year it was going to happen
The trend is there
In America, film fans are shunning the cinema…
…in favour of video-on-demand
But in China, both online streaming and cinema attendance…
…are on the rise
A key element of it is, is the young audience…
…who go to the cinema regularly…
…you know, going out with friends to go to the cinema…
…is something, still something of an event, an experience
China’s rise to the top of the box office…
…has been helped by the pandemic
Hollywood delayed productions…
…and movie theatres have been closed
Yet in China, cinemas are now back up to almost 75% capacity…
…and production of new films is steaming ahead
They are not too reliant on foreign productions…
…in a way that they were perhaps previously
Nowadays, something like 65-75% of the cinema slate in China…
…is actually local content…
…and the budgets of those films…
…have risen quite a lot in recent years
Despite this, big American films still do very well in China
The eighth instalment of “The Fast & Furious” series…
…took nearly twice as much in China as it did in North America
But Hollywood’s reliance on Chinese ticket sales…
…has started a worrying trend
Well, there’s a lot of self-censorship, no question
China will not always tell you…
…it normally will not tell you what you have to do…
…to get the film into the China market
They will let you decide and you end up self-censoring…
…more than China might censor you…
…so that can be a problem
Tilda Swinton‘s Marvel character in “Doctor Strange”, the Ancient One...…
…was changed from a Tibetan to a Celt…
…in part, it was thought, to placate China
But despite the soft power China may wield on Hollywood films…
…it’s unlikely it’ll succeed in exporting its own blockbusters…
…any time soon
It’s very hard for China, given the stories they tell…
…given their emphasis on a domestic market…
…given the issue of dubbing and subtitling…
…for them to do very well overseas
While a lot of those local films from the Chinese industry…
…are very culturally specific…
…I think we might well see Western studios taking on titles…
…that performed well in China…
…and remaking them for a US or a Western audience
While much of next year will be focused on protecting the world…
…from dangers on Earth…
…some scientists will be focusing on…
…how to defend the planet from threats in outer space
In July 2021, NASA will launch the world’s first trial…
…in planetary defence
Basically, we are purposely slamming a spacecraft…
…into an asteroid…
…to move it a little bit
And this is the sort of thing that you might want to do…
…if an asteroid was on a course to hit the Earth
This might sound like the plot of a Hollywood blockbuster…
…but the threat of an asteroid hitting Earth is real
A tiny asteroid streaking across southern Russia
Just seven years ago, an undetected meteor exploded…
…over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk…
…injuring at least 1,200 people
I think the Chelyabinsk impact really brought a lot of visibility…
…to the fact that this is something that happens to the Earth…
…all of the time
If something like that happens over a large city…
…you can get this sort of unfortunate devastation
Something that’s Chelyabinsk’s size happens every few decades…
…to maybe 100 years or so
As you go up to something that’s a bit bigger…
…sort of 160 metres…
…that’s more rare, but the amount of damage that it would cost…
…could potentially wipe out a large region…
…perhaps a small country, if it was over one of those
This is a rare event, but the consequences are so big and devastating…
…that it really makes sense to take a step…
…to do something about it
NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test, or DART…
…will practise defending Earth…
…by altering the course of an asteroid…
…using what’s known as kinetic-impactor technology
This asteroid is not a threat to the Earth…
…it’s not going to hit the Earth in the foreseeable future
But we do know that Earth is hit by asteroids all the time
…and so we really want to take this first step…
…to develop the technology to do something about that…
…if we needed to in the future
The target is the asteroid Didymos…
…which is orbited by a smaller asteroid Dimorphos
The DART spacecraft will hit the moonlet…
…adjusting its path and shortening its orbit…
…by several minutes
The impact will happen in 2022…
…when the asteroid is close enough to Earth…
…for scientists to be able to study the change in momentum…
…using powerful telescopes
The DART mission is just one part…
…of a wider, worldwide effort in planetary defence
Knowing where everything is…
…is really a crucial foundation for planetary defences
Finding all the asteroids, tracking them…
…and then being ready to do something about them…
…in order to take that next step…
…and turn what was science fiction into a reality…
…of being able to do something about asteroids
The probability of a giant asteroid hitting Earth…
…is extremely small…
…but if 2020 has shown anything…
…it’s that it pays to be prepared for the unexpected
I’m Tom Standage, editor of The Economist annual…
…The World In 2021
Click on the link opposite…
…for more analysis of the year ahead
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