Among the Western coalition providing aid to Ukraine, there is perhaps no greater European
partner than Germany. While countries like Poland and the UK have donated more military aid to
Ukraine, Germany maintains a special position in the European community that is vital for
the overall health of the EU and NATO alliance. Because of Germany's strategic position, Russia
has been keen to do everything it can to sow the seeds of dissent within Germany. Let’s take a
look at some of Russia's so far-unsuccessful plans to kill German support for Ukraine.
Before getting into the details of how Russia has tried to bully and undermine Germany into
submission, it’s important to note why Germany has been the primary target for Russian interference
outside of Ukraine. Since the end of World War Two, Germany has been one of the main European
supporters of peaceful conclusions to conflicts worldwide and has continued to hold this stance
for the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, arguably as a way for the German public
to atone for its sins in the war, the German government treats all European partners equally,
no matter their size. Because of this, the German government is seen as a big brother
for all of Europe, especially poorer and smaller Eastern European and Baltic countries that have
been ignored by Western Europe in the past. Because of this unique position, Germany
is a vital partner in European affairs since they will advocate for countries like Latvia
and Lithuania just as much as they do for Italy and France. But it’s not just their
position as a great mediator that Russia is worried about them. It’s also their economy.
With an economy valued at over 3.3 trillion euros, Germany is the largest economy in mainland Europe,
and it’s also the most populated country in the EU, boasting over 83 million people. These two
factors combined give Germany a massive edge in manufacturing and technology, which has been
a mainstay of the German economy for decades. In fact, the German economy is so strong that
Germany ranks third in the world in the number of exported goods it produces. Because of all
these factors, though Germany's defense industrial base is rather small because of decades of public
policy keeping it that way, it would be very easy for Germany to scale up its domestic arms industry
to meet Ukrainian or European demand in the event of a larger conflict. This fact utterly terrifies
Russia as the arsenal of democracy could sprout up practically overnight if Germany chose to do so.
Because of these two factors, Russia has tried to subvert German support
for Ukraine in earnest since February of last year. The first way the Russians
tried to do this was with energy supplies. As some Russian commentators have put it, Russia's
only real economic value to the world is that it’s a giant gas station. With seemingly unlimited
reserves of crude oil and natural gas, Russia was one of the primary suppliers of petroleum and
natural gas to Europe before the invasion. Almost as soon as the invasion started, various European
politicians started voicing their concerns that Russia could weaponize energy in response to
economic sanctions or aid provided to Ukraine. The Russian hope was that by threatening the
quality of life of everyday Europeans, they would pressure their governments not to support Ukraine,
and it worked for a time. Because of these fears, some European countries held back from providing
lethal aid to Ukraine, including Germany. But of course, as the world saw that Ukraine
would not only survive but more than likely win this war, support from populations more
concerned about keeping the lights on rather than Ukrainian sovereignty began to falter. This,
of course, angered Russia, and they began weaponizing energy resources in earnest.
Between demanding payment in rubles to threatening to slow down or outright cut
off European oil and natural gas supplies, Russia started bullying Europe to bow to its demands.
These scare tactics did not work, and Russia began to carry out its own kind of sanctions
last summer when it started significantly reducing oil and natural gas in some European
countries. Among the hardest hit was Germany. Prior to the invasion, Germany received about
half of its fuel and over a third of its natural gas from Russia. When Russia started to cut off
German energy supplies, the German government began scrambling to replace lost supplies. Over
the next six months, Germany began to almost entirely free itself from Russian energy.
From building several new natural gas terminals, establishing new contracts with the US and the
Middle East, creating a new phased ration system, bringing back coal-fired plants, and extending
the life of its nuclear power plants, Germany has now made itself independent from Russian energy.
However, there were still some hardships before Germany reached this point. Electricity prices
hit a nearly forty-year high in the country, and natural gas prices increased exponentially,
especially after the mysterious Nord Stream 2 explosion. But despite these temporary hardships,
Germany pulled off what most of the world, including Russia, thought was impossible,
especially in the timeline that Germany did it. With Russia unable to bully Germany via its energy
resources, it knew it had to try something else, and they were already running out of
time. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised to invest 100 billion euros into the German
military and arms industry despite Russian energy manipulation tactics. Because of this,
the Russians began to undermine German support via other means. This time, the strategy was an
audacious one, uniting the far left and far right of Germany into one unified front. But
how could these two polar opposites attract, and how has Russia been accomplishing this?
In Germany, there are several mainstream political parties, but among the most popular
are the Social Democrats, which is the party of the current Chancellor,
Olaf Scholz. But just like in the US, there are a variety of fringe parties on both sides of
the spectrum. On the far right is the Alternative for Germany party, also known as the AfD. The AfD
has been around since 2013 and espouses your bog-standard variety of right-wing politics,
including being staunchly anti-immigrant, anti-LGBT, jingoist, and ultra-nationalist.
On the other side of the political spectrum is the extreme left party known as Die Linke or The Left
in German. The Left party has been around since the early 2000s and whose views are described by
some as being more center-left with a fringe group inside who are very left-wing. [RA1] There is a
small group within the party that supports policies such as wanting to put a ban on
private companies[RA2] , extreme anti-monopoly laws, and the refusal to deploy German troops
anywhere outside German borders for any reason. Though the viewpoints of these two extremes would
make it seem like these two parties would be incompatible with working with one another,
they do have one major thing in common: there are small minorities in both parties that
support Russia[RA3] . The AfD likes Russia because they see much of themselves in Putin
and his ideology. Like Putin, the AfD wants to restore Germany to its “former glory” by
taking back the negative connotations the German public has associated with nationalism, kind
of like a “Make Germany Great Again” movement. The AfD is also staunchly anti-immigrant and wants
nothing more than to see all the non-Christian minorities expelled from Germany or at least
make it so that they’re not treated as equally as German citizens, similar to what Putin does with
ethnic minorities in Russia. The party is also staunchly against the LGBT community and sees laws
passed by Putin essentially criminalizing these already marginalized groups as sound domestic
policy. They also echo Putin's line that Russia was defending itself from the expansion of NATO.
The Left party has a very vocal minority that supports Russia because they buy into his
propaganda that Germany is a puppet of NATO and, by extension, the US. They firmly advocate for
removing all foreign troops from German soil and for Germany to back out of any military alliance,
including NATO. Not only that, but a fraction of the party sympathizes with Russia due to their
Communist leanings. They would like to personally see a revival of the old Soviet Union in some way,
and supporting Putin in their minds is the best way to achieve that goal.[RA4]
So even though it might seem highly unlikely at first, the far right and
far left in Germany actually have some very solid ground in their support for Russia,
and unfortunately, their views are starting to become more common. While both these groups are
on the fringes of the political spectrum, their support for Russia is not. Shortly before the war,
German support for Russia still stood around a third of the country. While these numbers have
decreased somewhat, it’s estimated that just under 25% of Germans still support Russia.
Why so many Germans support Russia despite being in a free and capitalist economy can be
explained by the decades of Soviet occupation in Eastern Germany. When looking at political
maps of German election results, both AfD and The Left’s strongest support bases are still in
areas of Germany formerly occupied by the USSR. Several generations of Germans were indoctrinated
in the Russian way of doing business, and even 30 years after the reunification of Germany, there
is still a strong minority within Germany with a soft spot for Putin and his style of government.
Russia has attempted to capitalize on this through an aggressive campaign of support for
fringe politicians in Germany. With the current state of government, just over half the country
supports the current coalition. The AfD and Left Party are among the two strongest contenders among
the opposition parties. Because of this, it’s only natural for Russia to single them out to
begin sowing dissent in the German public. According to leaked Russian documents that
multiple Western intelligence agencies have confirmed as authentic, Russia began planning
its German campaign in July 2022, shortly after reducing energy supplies to the country. During
this meeting, Kremlin officials decided that the German information space was the most
crucial in this effort. With their marching orders in hand, Russian officials began to
expand upon existing relationships with German politicians and cultivate new ones.
The secret documents propose that Russia should try several angles at sowing dissent. The one
deemed to have the most chance of success would be at supporting German politician
Sahra Wagenknecht. Wagenknecht is a member of The Left Party and has been growing in popularity
over the years. In recent years, she has clashed with traditional members of The Left party over
their views on "traditional family values," immigration, and other social policies. While
Wagenknecht is still very liberal in regard to foreign policy and economics, she harbors many
of the same viewpoints as the AfD does towards their other issues. Because of this, she has been
openly debating about creating a new political party, and estimates range that if she did so,
she would garner up to 24% of German voters. The Kremlin believed that supporting her in her
bid to create a new party should be their main focus. However, when Wagenknecht was
questioned about whether or not she had been in contact with Russian intelligence agents,
she categorically denied these claims. When asked whether she would seek an alliance with the AfD,
she also denied those claims. But while little evidence has surfaced suggesting
her Russian connection, her pro-Russian tone has become more pro-Putin since last year.
On the eve of the Russian invasion, Wagenknecht made several talk show appearances supporting
Putin. During one of these talk shows, she famously said of Putin, "We can be very glad
that Putin is not what he is portrayed: a crazy nationalist who gets drunk on pushing borders."
Of course, that's precisely what he is, and she later admitted to being wrong about the invasion.
But over the next six months, after the Kremlin documents point to the start of their plan to
unite the left and the right, she began making even more comments supporting Russia. Between
September and December of last year, she repeatedly stated that Germany was making the
wrong decision by placing sanctions on their most "important energy partner.” During later rallies,
she advocated for a total ban on any further weapons exports to Ukraine and an immediate
ceasefire along the current line of control. Though she denies close contact with Russia,
her ex-husband, Ralph Niemeyer, has told a very different story. He claims he is in almost daily
contact with Russian officials and that the Kremlin is very interested in seeing his
ex-wife unite the two fringe groups. He claims that though she would love to see this happen,
she cannot allow herself to take even one penny of Russian money lest it comes back to haunt her in
the future as it did for French politician Marine Le Pen, who lost a bid for the French presidency
over a similar scandal. Because of this, he speculates she likely gets guidance from Russian
handlers but cannot get more direct support that could leave a paper trail. But some other German
politicians are less concerned about their image. Unlike his ex-wife, Niemeyer and several dozen
officials have been openly courted by Kremlin cronies. For example, even before the full-scale
invasion, AfD members went on all expenses paid trips to Russia for what they claimed
were political or economic conferences. During those trips and more recent ones, the leaked
documents show huge bills for extravagant hotels, expensive theater tickets, restaurant tabs,
and the works, all thanks to Russian taxpayers. However, after the invasion started and it
suddenly became taboo to be associated with Russia, the majority of AfD members started
traveling to Russia and Belarus in secret. One of the more famous examples of these trips was
a secret trip in September of last year when media pundits found out and blew the whistle
on it. The trip was supposed to be a high-profile trip to illegally occupied regions of the Donbas
in what was sure to be a guilt trip to show just how horrible the Ukrainians were and how Russia
was a victim in all of this. Of course, when the German media found out about this trip, the AfD
lawmakers immediately returned to Germany without making their pilgrimage to occupied Ukraine.
Despite many AfD leaders wanting to keep their Russian connections on the down low,
some prefer to make their Russian trips out in the open. Arguably one of the most famous of these
lawmakers is Niemeyer himself. Once the Russian invasion kicked off, he created a self-described
“German government in exile” and has been meeting with Russian officials regularly in public to make
deals on behalf of the actual German government. Though Niemeyer has zero power or authority to do
anything, he insists he is doing the work that no one in Germany wants to do. Among
his "accomplishments" was getting a new contract proposal for sending more gas to Germany through
the Nord Steam 2 pipeline and presenting it to the Chancellor's office. Acts like these prove
Russia's ulterior motives in the pipeline explosion and that they are using German
puppets to do their bidding in the country. However, Russian influence extends far beyond
just the top echelon of fringe parties. Russian propagandists are trying to make
their efforts more legitimate and homegrown by helping plan and organize pro-Russian rallies
throughout Germany. Even from the beginning of the Russian influence campaign, the Kremlin mobilized
its army of trolls to develop pro-Russian stories and slogans along with spreading
misinformation on various social media sites. For example, they wrote a series of slogans and
cartoons to be published or spread by AfD members, including things like "Buy gas,
not war" and "Ukraine wants war, Germany wants peace." But due to Germany’s ability to wean
itself off of Russian energy so quickly, slogans like these were not particularly
effective. In addition, the Kremlin had plans to pay party members to spray graffiti around
the country with anti-Ukraine and pro-Russian messages. These acts of vandalism would then be
photographed and sent to the media. The purpose of this was to make it appear that support for
Russia was more prevalent in German society than previously thought by having this graffiti pop
up everywhere when in all reality, it was going to be highly mobile paid actors spreading these
messages. But just like many of their great ideas, this plan did not work out either.
Perhaps the only thing that has worked out in Russia's favor has been their planning of protests
and demonstrations around the country. The documents revealed that Russia keeps a close count
of the turnout and messaging for every pro-Russian rally in Germany. These rallies or protests are
sometimes initiated by Russian handlers who direct protest leaders on what to say and when
to execute their demonstrations. But despite this direct Russian interference, the AfD is
clearly conflicted about larger Russian support. While many in the AfD welcome Russia with open
arms, many are also skeptical. AfD members in this other camp are cautious about too
much support for Russia since though it would win more support in the east of the country,
it would all but eliminate support elsewhere. Because the AfD has aspirations to one day control
the German government, the party's long-term goals are to refrain from officially endorsing
or espousing Russian support party-wide to remain palatable for most Germans. Though
there will always be rogue elements of the AfD like Niemeyer, the numbers speak for themselves.
Of the several hundred AfD members currently holding some type of office, just a few dozen
members are known or suspected to have close Russian ties. So even with this party having
the most open support for Russia, only about 10% of its members have any real Russian influence.
Even though Russia’s campaign to unite the right and the left thus far can be described
as an abject failure, its best tactic yet has been the disinformation campaign about Germany. Before
and since the full-scale invasion, Germany has been the prime target for Russian disinformation
in Europe. No other European country comes close to the amount of misleading, fabricated,
or outright false news and social media stories than what Russia makes against Germany.
The disinformation campaign has its roots around the time of the Syrian refugee crisis. Russian
troll farms created fake media stories about atrocities and crimes committed by Muslim
refugees that various media outlets and German police confirmed as false. Russia was doing this
to influence German opinion to share the hardline Russian stance on immigration.
This media campaign has continued over the years, and Germany is attacked almost daily
at this point, where media outlets and various government organizations have to disprove Russian
propaganda. One of the most recent examples was Russian media claiming German citizens waved
the Soviet flag over the Bundestag building to celebrate the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
Bundestag representatives and Berlin police both confirmed no one has ever done this, not now or
in the past, and the videos were clearly fake. Other recent instances include Russian media
claiming that Germany is, in fact, abducting Ukrainian children and bringing them to
Germany. One of their media posts suggests in recent weeks, 79 children have been abducted
by adoption agencies to be illegally adopted by German parents. While this is certainly true of
what Russia has been doing, the German police and various adoption and foster care agencies pointed
out this has never happened even once, much less in the 79 cases reported by these Russian trolls.
Russian propagandists also conducted poor attempts at revisionist history,
such as claiming the infamous Katyn massacre, a secret NKVD operation to murder captured Polish
army officers and political elite, was a false flag operation committed by the Nazis. Of course,
history has shown this is false, but Russia continues to deny responsibility for crimes
it committed 80 years ago much less today. Another example of the revisionist history Russia pushes
is that they claim Zelenskyy and his family had ties to fascist Ukrainian collaborators
in World War Two. Despite President Zelenskyy’s family actually being persecuted by the Nazis,
with several close relatives who were murdered, the Russians claim he is a
direct descendant of surviving Ukrainian Nazis. Another common narrative Russia tries to push is
that Germany is a "vassal state" of the United States. They claim that countries like Germany
have forgone their sovereignty in exchange for American money and arms. This, of course,
could not be further from the truth. Any country with US troops has formal agreements with that
host nation. For example, despite the US presence on Japanese soil since World War Two, the US and
Japanese governments regularly exchange a two-way dialogue about the status of forces, quantity,
location of bases, and other issues. This is no different than in countries like Germany,
which hosts the bulk of European-based American servicemembers. Claims like these
only serve to appease the minority of Germans who want all US troops to leave the country,
which of course, would serve the Russian military well since Germany is a huge supply
hub for Western aid that flows into Ukraine. But despite this relentless media campaign,
it’s clear that most Germans see through these amateurish attempts at influencing
their opinions. Even the most pro-Russian AfD or Die Linke lawmakers also realize that their
views are on the fringe and that they must choose whether to support Russia or seek greater public
support for their parties. Because of this, the Russian misinformation campaign will likely go
just about as well as their invasion of Ukraine. This is because since it started last summer,
Germany has weaned itself off Russian energy, provided Leopard tanks and other advanced weapon
systems to Ukraine, and had a pro-Ukraine Defense Minister appointed. All of which proves Russia’s
plans are once again an abject failure. Want to know Germany would fare if the
war escalated? Check out “Germany’s World War Three Plan” or watch “World
War 3 - Most Likely Things That Will Cause It” for a look at some worst-case scenarios!