In recent months there's been growing concern about China's
increasing military activity around the Spratly islands in the South China Sea.
This came to International attention when a CNN News team witnessed the
Chinese Air Force warning a US plane to leave International airspace.
On top of this, the Philippines has also raised
concerns about a significant increase in the Chinese presence around the islands.
All this has sparked renewed concerns about the possibility of an armed
conflict in an area where no less than six different actors have territorial claims.
So, what exactly is the dispute over the Spratly Islands all about?
And just why is the South China Sea so hotly contested?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel my name is James Ker-Lindsey and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security and statehood.
Around the world, there are many territorial disputes.
But while we usually consider these issues has been about contested land borders
in fact they mostly revolve around maritime boundaries.
This involves competing claims over territorial waters and exclusive
economic zones - areas states are entitled to use for fishing and mineral exploration.
But sometimes the two issues come together.
Most usually this happens when different countries contest islands.
In such cases, control over a small territory can come with
significantly extended maritime and airspace rights over a large area.
One of the best examples is the Spratly islands.
While the islands have been disputed for over a century, tensions have steadily
grown over the past few decades as China has become more forceful with its claims.
But it certainly isn't alone.
Altogether six parties claim the islands, either in whole or in part.
As well as China, this includes Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei.
For this reason, many observers now believe that this may yet become the
focus of a full-scale armed confrontation between China and many of its neighbours.
The Spratly islands lie in the South China Sea.
Largely uninhabited, they comprise over a hundred tiny islets,
reefs and atolls - many of which are wholly or partially submerged.
Indeed, at most 20 are considered significant.
The largest of these is Itu Aba, which is around 1.4 kilometres,
or just under a mile, long and 400 meters, or a quarter of a mile, in width.
But while the islands may be small, they cover a vast area of around 400,000
square kilometres or 160,000 square miles.
And it's this that makes them so valuable; militarily, economically and strategically.
By claiming the territory, countries can control
the territorial waters and undersea resources across much of the region.
This includes control of one of the world's most important shipping lanes.
In addition, it would grant access to significant fishing banks.
And on top of this, there are believed to be oil and gas deposits around the islands.
The Islands' history is believed to date back almost 2,000 years.
Having been first discovered by Chinese fishermen,
they were later mentioned in Imperial Chinese records.
At that time, it appears that they were widely understood to be an extension
of the Paracel Islands to their north - a collection of islands
that form a separate dispute today between China, Taiwan and Vietnam.
However, our story really starts with European encroachment into East Asia in the 16th century.
While the Portuguese are believed to have been the first European explorers to visit
the islands, Spain formally claimed the territory;
building a lighthouse to guide ships through the perilous waters.
Then in the 19th century, the islands began to be claimed by various other European colonial powers.
For example, France saw them as part of its Colonial holding in
Indochina that makes up present-day Vietnam.
However, this claim was never internationally recognised.
Meanwhile, the territory was claimed by Britain.
In doing so, it named them after a British sea captain who had spotted them 30 years earlier.
Then during the Second World War the territory was
seized by Imperial Japan and this lasted until its defeat in 194.
But it was in the period after the Second World War that the question
of the sovereignty over the islands really began to become hotly contested.
In 1947, the Republic of China, later based on the island of Taiwan published
a map indicating that the Spratly islands were part of Chinese territory.
Likewise, the Communist People's Republic of China established on the mainland in 1949,
also claimed the islands as part of China.
In the decade that followed, broader regional competition over the islands steadily grew.
As well as the claims by the two Chinas, Vietnam and the Philippines,
both of which were now independent states, also claimed sovereignty over the territory.
And it was at this point that the issue started taking on a
more dangerous and destabilising dimension as
the various countries began establishing small military presences on the islands.
This started in 1956 when Taiwan set up an outpost on Itu Aba.
Then in the 1970s Vietnam and the Philippines also created a foothold on parts of the islands.
This took place against the backdrop of broader regional tensions.
In 1974, Chinese and South Vietnamese naval forces
clashed over the Paracel Islands, leaving over 70 dead meanwhile.
In the early 1980s, two more countries entered the picture.
The first was Malaysia, which claimed part of the territory in 1983.
This was followed by Brunei, which claimed a section of the islands
after it gained independence from Britain in 1984.
By the late 1980s, the situation was becoming increasingly complex and tense.
In 1988 violence finally erupted after China forcibly removed the
now unified Vietnamese military presence in one of the parts of
the islands - the so-called Battle of Johnson South Reef.
After this, Beijing gradually tried to cement its control by launching an ambitious scheme
to reclaim land around the reefs and atolls and create artificial Islands.
This came to International attention in 2013 when China dramatically increased
its activities, reclaiming an estimated 13 square
kilometres or five square miles of land over the next three years.
But China's increasingly assertive claim to the islands soon led to growing pushback from other
countries, including the United States which sent a warship to the area in October 2015.
Despite the growing fears of an armed confrontation over the islands,
the most significant development came from a very different direction.
In 2013, the Philippines referred China's claims to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The
Hague - an international tribunal that had been set up in 1899 to help countries resolve disputes.
According to Manila, Beijing had no right to claim
sovereignty over the islands simply by virtue of history.
Instead, any claim should be judged based on the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea,
UNCLOS - the key international treaty governing maritime issues.
Although China refused to participate in the proceedings and disputed the Court's
jurisdiction over the matter, the case went ahead as both countries were party to the Convention.
Ultimately, the judges didn't try to decide who had sovereignty over the islands.
As land territories, they weren't subject to the Convention.
Nor did it try to deter determine how the maritime boundaries should be delineated.
That would have to be decided once sovereignty
over the different parts of the territory had been agreed upon.
Instead, the question it faced was far more nuanced.
It was asked to decide which states had a claim to rights within the waters and on what grounds.
Did the historical relationship to the territory matter most, as China insisted?
Or should it be solely based on international law and principles set out under UNCLOS?
In a long and detailed ruling covering over a dozen issues, the Court went against China.
It argued that rights to the maritime zones should be based on the Convention.
Moreover, it argued that China's actions in and around the islands,
including reclaiming land, had aggravated the situation and that
Beijing had infringed on the Philippines' rights within its exclusive economic zone.
Moreover, in another twist to the whole story, the court in fact ruled that none of the so-called
Spratly Islands were in fact islands as generally understood under the terms of the Convention.
Therefore, even if China did have sovereignty over the territory,
it wouldn't confer an exclusive economic zone under the terms of UNCLOS - and certainly not
one that would infringe on the rights of the other states in the region.
To this end, it called on both parties to comply with the terms of the Convention.
As expected, China refused to accept the ruling.
And even now it still fundamentally rejects the findings.
Indeed, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson recently said that the
arbitration case had been "pure political drama" orchestrated by the United States.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government refuses to take the issue of the ownership of the
islands before another legal body, such as the International Court of Justice.
In the meantime, tensions have continued to rise
as Beijing steadily builds up its presence on the islands.
According to reports, it's now constructed military bases on
three of the islands - despite earlier assurances by the Chinese President,
Xi Jinping, that China wouldn't militarise the territory any further.
All the while, several other claimants have also become more active.
For example, Vietnam has reportedly begun dredging parts of the territory
creating around 220 hectares of new land in recent years.
On top of this, Malaysia also retains control of
a reef it captured in the 1980s and has since turned it into an island.
Indeed, Brunei is the only one of the six that doesn't have a
presence of one sort or another on the islands.
And added to this, although Indonesia doesn't claim the islands,
it too has publicly challenged China's claim.
And it's this that brings us to the most recent tensions.
Following an incident that took place at the start of February 2023,
the Philippines Government filed a complaint to the Chinese Embassy in
Manila accusing Chinese Coast Guard of shadowing, harassing, engaging in
dangerous manoeuvres, and even directing a military-grade laser at one of its vessels.
While the incident didn't lead to an exchange of fire, it's nevertheless fed growing tensions.
The Philippines is now accusing China of threatening its sovereignty and security
and the country's president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, has even gone as far as to suggest that the
Armed Forces of the Philippines must now reorient their mission against Beijing.
Interestingly, he also called the Spratly Islands a more difficult
and a more complex issue than the Ukraine War.
And in many ways, he's right.
This is an exceedingly complex issue with many countries claiming some or all of the islands.
But it's certainly not impossible to resolve.
UNCLOS does provide clarity on the subject.
And that is in many ways the whole problem.
The model for resolution would essentially leave out China and Taiwan.
And it's this that in many ways creates the current problems.
The question is just how far China is willing to push its highly disputed claim to the islands?
And just how far the other states are prepared to defend their positions,
especially if this means facing an armed confrontation with Beijing?
While International attention is focused on the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan,
one gets the sense that the Spratly Islands may be
a more likely focal point for conflict in the period ahead.
More to the point, with the sheer number of actors involved,
this small collection of rocks, reefs and atolls, most of which are submerged,
may well become the centre of a bitter regional war if not handled carefully.
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