when i look at republican and democratic conventions i think like what would go
through all this nonsense for right
because it's all highly scripted out in the old days as a reason for the
compassionate convention was we all get together and try to figure out who the
hell a president should
great and then there would be delegates but it would be a mass and there was
some rules that it was interesting and sometimes the good
kennedy who came in leading wouldn't necessarily come out with the nomination
in a word that they would have to he never boats as goes way back in history
but you know even through the nineteen sixties we had real conventions
where we had real drama now there's a drama no limited knows right i love the
moment we're all the jersey just but mit romney over tomay wall bed all day all
really you don't say
and willing to that
now how many months ago got and so as i look at this
i have a tendency to want to say
but we don't kidding around about the subject marketing him
it turns out that there's some real numbers as to why these conventions
matter a lot
and the main reason behind it is because
this is when most americans start paying attention
is about the marketing campaign
in fact let me give you numbers um...
pew research center noticed that four years ago for example
twenty percent of americans before the commission say they were paying
attention to the race
right after the connections that number jumped to forty seven percent
and that is true of many of the convention of the recent connections
there's this huge bomb pop
where they go up there are going to add a couple speeches i miss you
you know the two candidates say annex are paying attention so that makes sense
now my new those bombs that you're gonna see in the polling and that annotation
they're paying
it's less less every year
one because it's less relevant
but to it's because the television audience is being divided
you know all days
all the networks would cover it he didn't have any other choices so your
four so watch all these political speeches now you don't have to watch it
and a lot of people have already gotten a memo to pay the money besides
elections not our votes
they might not
no it specifically when it comes to the polling et cetera but they have that gut
sense
so it makes it also easier to turn off the stuff but nonetheless listen though
this
it turns out that four times since nineteen eighty eight according to
upload the site is robert erickson ng chris burke
believes in
uh... the leader of the polls immediately before the conventions
emerge trailing after the convention
and went on to lose the popular vote
so four-time society you know that's a lot and happen with george w_ bush in
two thousand four george h w bush in eighty eight clinton ninety two
and al gore was also on the popular vote in two thousand right
and what happens is come in and the other guys leaving they watch the
conventions
they watch their arguments and they don't know i'd like the other guy better
and then two weeks after the bay never lose the lead
now after the debates on after all the news that after the heavy campaigning in
that they don't lose the weight
so it that makes you realize look at least in the past and in the recent past
it has mattered allot one more amazing fact about that
they pulled pools upholds over the last fifteen elections and found that
no candidate was behind two weeks after the conventions
has come back to win the popular vote
now that's a makes
last fifteen elections two weeks after the convention if you're behind you're
done son stick a fork in
now i doesn't mean that it's going to happen in this election and of course
see historical patterns are important irrelevant
all-important
but it is obviously eugenic here
the american people will pay a lot more tension these commissions than they do
other things you'll listen to some of its beaches obviously to make candid
speeches or the most important at the end
they'll probably make their decision
and apparently two weeks after the conventions
they usually won't change their mind
that's why these commissions are actually a lot more important
than we realize given their highly scripted
and otherwise generally useless