All we're hearing about is 走到哪里听到的都是关于
COVID-19 sweeping across 2019冠状病毒病横扫
the globe like some kind of a 全球的消息，仿佛某种
apocalyptic movie. 末日情节的电影。
And with travel bans, 随着旅行禁令、
quarantines, 隔离、
and major events cancelled, 大型活动被取消，
people are panicking. 人们正陷入恐慌。
Face masks, gone. 口罩，卖光。
Hand sanitiser, gone. 洗手液，卖光。
Toilet paper, gone! 厕纸，卖光！
Is that kind of panic reasonable 当面临全球大流行病的威胁时
in the face of a pandemic threat? 这种恐慌反应是否合理呢？
Or is it causing more problems 还是说它其实制造了
than it solving? 更多的问题？
讨论：跟爱丽丝·马修斯一起
支持/反对大流行病恐慌
Coronavirus has had an economic 冠状病毒对各个方面的经济
impact on everything. 都产生了影响。
From what we can buy, 包括我们日常购买的物品、
to how we work, 工作方式、
to the stock markets, 以及股市。
and it's all driven by panic. 这些影响都是恐慌造成的。
人们需要对局势的掌控感
觉得需要做些什么
来保障自己以及家人的安全。
We see scenes like this and think 我们见到这种事情
this is absolutely ridiculous! 觉得匪夷所思。
But what if it's more complicated? 但如果情况没那么简单呢？
Clinical psychologist, 临床心理医生
Dr Steven Taylor, 史蒂芬·泰勒医生表示
says in the face of a global 当面临全球范围的
and deadly pandemic, 致命性大流行病时
we're being told the most 我们被告知，
we can do, 要做的
is wash our hands, 就是洗手，
which feels disproportionate 这让人感觉难以
to threat. 对抗这一巨大威胁。
Panic buying is a way to feel 恐慌购买是一种获得
in control. 掌控感的方式。
But, 但是，
恐惧是会传染的，
作为群居动物， 我们会在彼此身上寻找线索
来试探周围的环境。
所以会发生足球赛踩踏事件。
He also says social media and 他同时表示社交媒体
videos going viral has amplified 和视频快速传播消息也
the perceived prevalence of panic. 使大范围恐慌的情况恶化。
Only a small amount of people 虽然只有一小部分人
are actually alarmed, 真的因为感到害怕
anxious, 焦虑
and overshopping. 开始囤货。
That small amount of people has 但这一小部分人
created a big snowball effect. 造成了滚雪球的效应。
It's happened before 以前也发生过，
in the 1600s 在1600年代
with tulips in the Netherlands. 与荷兰的郁金香有关。
The flower suddenly became 这种花突然受到
all the rage and people started 追捧，人们开始
buying and selling them 进行交易以
for huge sums. 谋取利益。
As the price of the tulip bulb 随着郁金香鳞茎价格
skyrocketed, 飞涨，
panic over missing out drove 人们开始恐慌害怕错过机会
even more people to pay 于是更多的人开始
even higher prices. 高价购买。
By the end, some tulip bulbs 到了最后，一些鳞茎的
were worth five times as much as 价格甚至达到了
an average house. 普通房屋均价的五倍。
Five times! 五倍！
Spoiler alert, the bubble popped 剧透警告，泡沫破了
and it didn't end well. 最后结局可不美好。
郁金香狂热类似于
我们近些年经历的
一些市场出现的极端反应
表现为
某种特定资源的价格
突然发生了巨大变化，
进而造成短缺。
So yesterday's tulips are 所以昨日郁金香就是
today's toilet paper. 今日厕纸。
After literally disappearing 等到货架上再也看不到
off shelves, some packs of 厕纸的身影，有些厕纸
loo paper were on sale for up to 在网竟然卖到了
a $1000 dollars online. $1000元的天价。
Not quite the price of a house, 虽然还没达到房子的价位，
I know, but the principle is 我知道，但，
the same. 一回事。
个人恐慌购买也许还算有合理性
因为对于个人或家庭来说
他们害怕买不到东西。
If you're someone who's sitting 但如果你坐在
on your toilet paper throne, 厕纸堆成的王座上，
or chowing down on 420 kilos of 或者在两周隔离期间
rice and pasta during a 消耗了420公斤的
two-week isolation, 大米和意面。
well, yeah. 呵呵。
Having extra non-perishables 储备易长久保存的
stored is fine. 物品没问题。
For you! 只是对你而言！
But for stable cooperative, 为了实现稳定的、同心协力的
functioning society, 正常运作的社会，
economist Dr Gigi Foster 经济学家琪琪·福斯特
says the panic buy 表示，恐慌购买
is disastrous. 是灾难性的。
从社会角度来说，如果每个人都这么做
如果澳大利亚的每一户家庭
去购物的时候为了以防万一
都多买三四卷，
那么，是的，就会出现稀缺的情况。
Some will have weeks’ worth 有些人会储备几周的
of goods while others, 物品，而其他
who need it 有需要的人
will have nothing. 则什么都买不到。
One man with Cystic Fibrosis 一位囊性纤维化的病人
posted this PSA on his apartment 在自己的公寓门外贴了这张字条
door because he couldn't find 因为他实在买不到
any tissues. 纸巾。
对于稀缺的恐惧会更先一步
制造稀缺。
通过这种。。。近乎自我实现的效果。
Panic derails society. 恐慌使社会偏离正轨。
In a time we actually need to be 当我们最需要
cooperating more than ever, 团结一致的时候
Panic drives the small business 由于恐慌，小业主们
owner to lay off all their staff, 进行裁员，
right when they need that work 而不考虑这正是员工最需要
the most. 工作的时候。
Panic makes people steal 由于恐慌，人们从医院
medical equipment from a hospital. 偷取医疗设备。
That actually happened 这是真实发生在
in Perth! 珀斯的事情！
Panic provokes racism 恐慌引发种族歧视
and xenophobia 和排外主义，
against Chinese people 先是针对中国人，
and then all foreigners, 再是所有的外国人，
and then your neighbours 然后你马路对面的
across the road. 邻居。
The only way out of this pandemic 唯一能摆脱恐慌的方法
is through it, 就是度过这一时期，
and that means cooperation and 这需要齐心协力
communal action. 和社会的共同努力。
Not this winner-takes-all 而不是赢家通吃式的
kind of selfishness. 利己主义。
Actions driven by panic may help 恐慌引起的行为或许可以
you feel in control 帮你找到掌控感
but they risk sending society 但同时也可能导致社会
in chaos. 陷入混乱。
反对。