On May 17th, 2018 -- Burundians will head to the polls to vote in a national constitutional
referendum -- a vote that COULD lead to the roll back of decades of peace building work,
threaten democracy, and, potentially, create the conditions where an armed conflict might
arise in the country once again.
President Pierre Nkurunziza has lead Burundi since the end of its civil war in 2005.
As he approaches the last few years of his final term in office, he’s now seeking changes
to the constitution that would allow him to stay in office until 2034.
I’m Judah, this is NowThis World, and in today’s episode we’re looking back at
the nation’s troubled past, its peacebuilding successes after the war, and the president
that could jeopardize years of progress.
First we need to look back at the country’s history.
Burundi is located in the Great Lakes region of east Africa.
Its home to more than 11 million people, the majority of whom are ethnically Hutu, but
Burundi is also home to a substantial minority Tutsi population.
Since gaining independence in 1962, the small country has experienced waves of mass violence
and massacres.
From independence to the early '90s, the minority-Tutsis controlled the military-run government, often
resorting to violent and repressive measures to govern over the majority-Hutu population.
But there was some political progress in 1992, when the nation formed a new constitution.
And in 1993, the nation elected its first democratically elected president, Melchior
Ndadaye.
It marked the end of the Tutsi-controlled military rule, and set in place a pro-Hutu
government.
But it wouldn’t last for long.
Just months into his presidency, Tutsi soldiers assassinated president Ndadaye, catapulting
the nation into a brutal civil war that would last for 12 years and claim the lives of about
300,000 Burundians.
After years of robust diplomacy and negotiations, which experts say average Burundian citizens
played an instrumental role, combatants signed an historic peace agreement in 2000, called
“The Arusha Accords.”
The agreement set up a number of peacekeeping mechanisms -- top of that list is ethnic quotas
for power sharing in government, the military, and political parties; and it also stipulated
two, 5-year presidential term limits.
Those stipulations were central to the 2005 creation of the country's new constitution.
That same year, Pierre Nkurunziza became president when he was elected by parliament.
But despite the success of inter-community reconciliation during peacetime, the democratic
institutions that formed its foundations are now in jeopardy.
The current constitution stipulates, based on the Arusha Accords, that a president can
only serve up to two, 5 year terms.
BUT Nkurunziza found a loophole 2015, and argued that his first term as president didn’t
officially count -- since he was elected by parliament, and not the general public that
time.
He won a third term that will expire in 2020.
Many argued that the move was unconstitutional, and the unrest that followed sparked protests
and violent clashes in 2015.
As Nkurunzia’s last years of his final term in office approached, he called on the nation
to help him stay in office - by voting to change a part of the constitution that was
a core mechanism in the Arusha Accords - term limits.
The proposed referendum would change term limits from 2, 5-year terms, to 2, 7-year
terms.
But here’s the catch -- all previous terms served won’t count if the measure passes.
Meaning, Nkurunziza could potentially stay in office until 2034.
I spoke to Human Rights Watch Senior Researcher Lewis Mudge about what this vote could mean
for democracy in Burundi.
“It is a it is an absolute threat to democracy and I dare say that once this referendum passes
and once Nkurunziza wins again in 2020 we shouldn't be speaking in terms of Burundi
being a democracy it will cease to be that type of democracy which it's been since the
Arusha Accords.”
It is important to point out that while Burundi became a democracy, it hasn’t been a perfect
democracy.
Corruption continues to be problem for the country.
Press freedom has come under attack, with journalists being arbitrarily arrested and
harassed and international media being banned from the country ahead of the referendum.
And elections continue to lack legitimate competition.
But despite this, Nkurunziza continues to be a pretty popular leader in Burundi.
Since becoming president, they say he’s implemented a number of social welfare programs,
including one aimed at poverty reduction - a big deal for the nation that consistently
ranks among the poorest in the world.
Despite his popularity among some, opposition figures who speak out against his rule are
either fleeing the country, or are disappearing and turning up dead according to Human Right
Watch.
“What is worrying is the hundreds and thousands of people who have fled the country since
2015.
Most of them are fleeing because of the violence that has been either inflicted upon them or
because of the violence that they fear.
And when you have hundreds of thousands of people in very very difficult conditions in
displacement camps refugee camps scattered around the region.
That is a perfect recruiting ground for these types of groups.
And so and so that's that's that's terribly concerning because nobody wants to see Burundi
move into a violent context a more violent context of what we have today.”
This alleged targeting of opposition figures, and the lack of a peaceful political way forward
for these groups, has some concerned of what it could mean for peace and stability moving
forward.