May 2022 saw a political earthquake in Ireland.
A century after the island was partitioned, elections in the north saw Sinn Féin - a party
dedicated to Irish unification - emerge as the largest single political force in the province.
So, after many decades of political tensions, including a 30-year conflict,
could we be about to see the island of Ireland reunified?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
There are numerous separatist campaigns going on around the world.
In most cases, the end goal is independence.
A group wants to break away and establish its own state.
However, sometimes the aim is unification with a neighbouring country.
One of the most prominent examples in the modern era is Northern Ireland.
For the past hundred years, there's been a campaign to end British rule
in the province and bring it under the sovereignty of the Irish state.
But while this long seemed all but impossible,
things have changed dramatically over the past decade.
This was graphically highlighted in May 2022
when Sinn Féin - already the second largest party in the Irish Republic, and the strongest
voice for Irish reunification - won 27 of the 90 seats in the Northern Irish Assembly.
Naturally, this has fed speculation that the united Ireland may now be on the horizon.
But just how likely is this in reality?
The island of Ireland lies in northwest Europe.
At almost 85,000 square kilometres, or 33,000 square miles,
it's the 20th largest island in the world.
At present, just over 83 percent of the island is under the sovereignty
of Ireland - more usually called the Republic of Ireland.
At a little over 70,000 square kilometres,
or 27,000 square miles, it's the 118th largest member of the United Nations.
The Republic's population stands at five million.
According to the most recent 2016 census, 78 percent identified as Catholic and around
three percent as Church of Ireland - the largest Protestant denomination.
Meanwhile, Northern Ireland - a constituent part
of the United Kingdom - makes up the remaining 17 percent of the island.
Its population is 1.9 million.
This is almost equally divided between Protestants and Catholics,
at 41.6 percent and 40.8 percent respectively.
Ireland has a long, rich and complex history.
Having emerged as one of the last holdouts of the Celtic people,
by the 11th century it was made up of a number of kingdoms.
However, starting the mid 12th century it would increasingly come under English,
and then eventually British, control.
This not only led to the emergence of a Protestant Anglo-Irish land-owning class
that ruled the largely Catholic Irish population, it would also see an attempt
to change the demographic balance through the introduction of Protestant settlers on the
island - a process that was mainly focused on the northeast of the island; an area known as Ulster.
In 1801, Ireland was united with Great Britain to form the United Kingdom.
However, over the course of the 19th century pressure grew for home rule.
In 1919, an armed uprising against British rule broke out - the Irish war of Independence.
Realising that it couldn't maintain control over the entire island indefinitely,
in 1921 the British government decided to partition the island.
While the Protestant-dominated Ulster remained part of the United Kingdom, the rest of the
island became a separate, self-ruling dominion within the British Empire - the Irish Free State.
In 1949, Ireland formally severed its links with the Commonwealth
and became a fully independent republic.
Crucially, however, it refused to formally recognise the partition.
Under the terms of Article 2 of its Constitution,
it continued to lay claim to the entire territory of the island.
In the decades following partition, tensions grew in Northern Ireland between the largely Protestant
Unionists - those who wanted to see Northern Ireland remain part of the United Kingdom - and
the predominantly Catholic Nationalists, who wanted to see Ireland unified under the Republic.
This all came to a head in the late 1960s.
Against the backdrop of protests against widespread anti-Catholic discrimination,
inter-communal violence erupted.
This marked the start of a 30-year conflict that saw British security
forces and Unionist paramilitaries take on armed Nationalist groups;
the best known of which was the Provisional Irish Republican Army, the IRA.
'The Troubles', as they came to be known, would lead to more than 3,500 deaths.
However, by the late 1980s it was becoming clear that neither side could win.
While the IRA could be weakened, it couldn't be eradicated.
Meanwhile, Britain refused to relinquish its sovereignty
for as long as the majority wanted to be a part of the United Kingdom.
However, following a British statement that it had no intrinsic wish to hold on to Northern Ireland
for its own "selfish interests" the way was open for talks to begin.
In 1998, the sides signed the Belfast Agreement, better known as the Good Friday Agreement.
In return for the IRA giving up its arms, and Ireland giving up its constitutional
claim to the North, it was agreed that a referendum on Irish unification - a
border poll - would be held if ever it became likely that a majority wanted a united Ireland.
In the meantime, the border between the north and the south would be opened up
and the province would have self-rule under a system guaranteeing all major political
parties a place in government - including Sinn Féin; widely seen as the IRA's political wing.
The Good Friday Agreement was a monumental achievement
that would see profound changes in Northern Ireland in the years that followed.
Indeed, its architects even won the 1998 Nobel Prize for their efforts.
However, there were still major problems.
Differences between the main Nationalist and Unionist parties
saw the new Northern Ireland Assembly twice suspended.
But the biggest blow came from Britain's decision to leave the European Union.
To prevent the reintroduction of a hard border between the United Kingdom and Ireland,
which remains an EU member, a special agreement was introduced
allowing Northern Ireland to effectively remain within parts of the EU's single market.
However, while this has eased the concerns of Nationalists, it has angered many Unionists.
They see the new requirement for a customs check for goods coming from Britain
as weakening the province's ties with the rest of the United Kingdom.
And it's against this backdrop that the most recent elections for the Northern
Ireland assembly saw Sinn Fein emerge as the largest single party in the province.
The symbolism of a nationalist party, especially one that's widely understood
to have been so closely aligned with the IRA, winning the election in what
was deliberately designed to be a Protestant Unionist homeland can't be underestimated.
But does this really mean that Ireland is now on the path to unification?
On the one hand, there's no doubt that the chances of unification have indeed increased.
First, there have been important demographic changes.
While Northern Ireland was created with a Protestant majority,
with Catholics representing around 33 percent in 1926, the two communities are now the same size.
This has naturally led to greater support for unification.
Secondly, Britain's departure from the European Union seems to be having an effect.
While most people insist that they haven't changed
their mind about Northern Ireland's status following the referendum,
around 20 percent believe that Brexit has made Northern Ireland's place in the UK less certain.
This could well be enough to swing the outcome of a vote.
More to the point, support could also grow as the consequences of Brexit set in.
Already ,there are signs of this.
As British citizens have now lost their freedom of movement within the European Union,
there's been a surge in applications for Irish passports - even amongst Protestant Unionists,
who are entitled to Irish citizenship.
Thirdly, the Republic has undergone profound economic,
political, and social changes in recent years.
Long seen as Britain's poor neighbour, rapid economic growth means that its per capita GDP
is now almost twice that of the United Kingdom.
Likewise, what was once a highly conservative Catholic society
now permits divorce, same-sex marriage, and abortion.
Indeed, it's now far more progressive and liberal than the North.
For many young Protestants, the prospect of unification is no longer quite so daunting.
Finally, Northern Ireland seems to have lost what little resonance it once had in mainland Britain;
where most people now appear completely indifferent to its status.
Even British nationalists appear to have little affinity for the North.
Polling carried out during the height of the Brexit debate in Britain
showed the ardent Brexiters, when given the choice between Brexit or Northern Ireland,
overwhelmingly supported ditching Ulster.
But while it might be tempting to think that unification is now on the horizon,
it's important to stress that it continues to face significant hurdles.
For a start, Sinn Féin's victory, while symbolically hugely important,
needs to be put in perspective.
It didn't in fact win more seats.
Instead, the main Unionist party, previously the largest political force, lost seats.
More to the point, despite the evident shift in favour of unification in public opinion,
there's still no sign that a majority would vote for unity.
A poll carried out in April 2022 showed that while 30 percent of people in Northern Ireland
would vote in favour of unification, 45 percent would vote against it.
This mirrors other polls, which have shown similar figures.
And while there's been at least one poll showing a slight majority for unification, there'll need
to be sustained polling showing a definite majority before a vote is likely to be called.
And while it would be tempting to think
that Nationalists would want to vote as soon as possible, this isn't in fact the case.
According to the Good Friday Agreement, a border poll can only be held once every seven years.
This means that it needs to be held not at the first moment, but at the right moment.
While Sinn Féin's leader, Mary Lou McDonald, has said she'd like to see a vote within the
next five years, it's understood that this needs to be carefully managed.
Michelle O'Neill, Sinn Féin's leader in the North, who could well be about to become the
First Minister, has said that the key focus at this stage is on addressing day-to-day issues.
For now, Sinn Féin's goal seems to be on winning people round to the idea of
unity - including those Catholics who harbour reservations about unification.
Meanwhile, there are also important unanswered questions about unification.
Despite the significance of the issue, there's in fact no blueprint in place for unity.
There's no idea of what political system a united Ireland will have.
While some may want to see the separate identity of the north erased,
others argue that some form of devolved system would have to be created.
In other words, Northern Ireland's self-rule
in the UK would be replaced by self-rule within the Republic.
Some have even suggested a federal settlement.
Interestingly, while many in the Republic say they'd like to see united Ireland as
soon as possible, when confronted with the realities of unification
opinion appears to shift towards a five to ten year time frame.
Finally, there are also important security questions.
Just as large parts of the Nationalist community never accepted the partition of the island,
and were willing to take up arms to fight for a united Ireland, so there will almost certainly
be elements within the Unionist community who steadfastly reject the creation of a single
united Irish state - no matter how much power is given to the Protestant community.
There's a real danger the Irish unification could well see a return to violence.
A vote and any process of union will therefore need to be carefully managed.
All this would seem to suggest that while Sinn Féin's victory in the recent election
is no doubt hugely symbolic, there's little immediate prospect of Irish unification.
That said, there's nevertheless the sense that
it's by no means the impossible dream for Nationalists that it may once have been.
Indeed, if the current trajectory continues, it's
certainly conceivable that we could well see a united Ireland by the end of the decade.
The key questions, however, are what would unification look like?
And how will the process be managed?
Of course, Ireland isn't the only place pursuing unification.
If you're interested in learning more about other examples,
here are some more videos that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.