John yang.
Judy: For more on the impact,
both inside the court and around
the country, I'm joined by
Marcia Coyle, chief Washington
correspondent for the national
law journal.
And Mary Ziegler, a Florida
state university law professor
and the author of "Abortion and
the law in America."
Welcome back to the newshour for
both of you.
Let me start with you, Marcia.
Given the sense of the status of
this, this is an opinion that
was written some time ago.
It is subject to being changed,
before the court actually issues
an opinion.
Help us understand what we have
Marcia: Ok, duty.
The first thing I looked at when
I saw the draft opinion was that
it was marked first draft.
It also said on the first page
of the opinion that it had been
circulated to all of the
justices on February 10, the
court held oral arguments in
this abortion case out of
Mississippi in December.
So this is obviously, as a first
draft, a very early opinion.
It does not mean that it may not
last until the final decision.
But I will tell you this, that
during the supreme court's
deliberative process, first
drafts often go through multiple
drafts, not unusual for 20
drafts or more, and much can
change during the drafting
process.
So we really will not know what
the court is actually going to
say until the final decision
comes out.
Judy: And Mary, let's step back
a moment.
Remind us how many people get
abortions in this country every
year, who are they, and how
could that be affected if this
is the decision the court hands
down?
Mary: The abortion rate has been
declining, but it is still
roughly, estimates about one in
four people of reproductive age
have abortions in their
lifetime, is -- which is a lot
of people.
We estimate between 26 states
will outlaw most or all
abortions of the supreme court
reverses roe.
There are a combination of what
we called trigger laws which has
some kind of provision that will
make the law automatically go
into effect if roe is gone.
And there are zombie laws, laws
that were criminal on the books
before roe that have been kept
on the books and could spring
back to life if roe is gone.
That will affect people across
the midwest.
We know that people of color
have abortions at
disproportionately high rates
and we would imagine criminal
abortion laws, if they are
enforced against patients and
doctors, would
disproportionately be enforced
against people of color because
those are people in the most
heavily policed communities.
Judy: Continuing with that line
of thought, you have done work
looking at what would happen on
the first day after the supreme
court were to hand down a
decision like this.
According to the pro-abortion
rights group, the good mocker
institute, they say there are 26
states poised to restrict
abortion right away.
What would that look like?
Mary: There is the messy process
of who is going to certify that
roe V. Wade has been certified.
If it resembles what we see in
the draft, it will take a genius
to figure out that roe has been
overturned.
Some states require the attorney
general to certify there has
been an overturning before a
trigger lock and go into effect.
In other places, the process
will be messier.
There is a state constitutional
litigation in Michigan, for
example.
There may be back before
criminal laws go into effect.
We imagine if the court is this
direct as it seems to be in this
draft, that there will be little
drama in most places that
abortions will be criminal in
short order.
Judy: As we know, a lot of
politics here.
This is a deeply divisive and
political issue.
I just want to cite the latest
pbs newshour NPR marist poll.
This was last -- from last week.
It shows Americans by an 11
point margin that Democrats do a
better job handling the issue of
abortion.
We would remind everyone that
back in February, 3% of people
said this should be the top
issue.
Can we project ahead to what
difference this could make in
elections this year?
Mary: I think it is reconciling
those two poles.
We have reason to believe that
large numbers of independents
and Republicans don't want to
roe V. Wade overturned.
They may not be comfortable with
the morality of abortion, they
are not excited about the
prospect of roe being
overturned.
The question for Democrats is
whether they can translate that
into votes and whether voters
make abortion a priority.
That 3% number is probably lower
than it would be in a world with
no roe V. Wade, whether it is
high enough to translate into
anything concrete for Democrats
in 2022 or 2024 remains to be
seen.
Judy: I want to come back with
you to the justices who sided
with justice Alito in this early
draft of the opinion.
They were all trump appointees.
They voted with him, again, an
early draft, which would in
effect overturn roe.
Let's go back and listen to what
these three justices, that is
just as Amy coney Barrett,
justice Kavanaugh, and justice
Gorsuch, said when they were
going through their confirmation
hearings.
>> Judges cannot just wake up
one day and say I have an
agenda, I like guns, I hate
guns.
>> One of the important things
to keep in mind about roe V.
Wade is that it has been
reaffirmed many times over the
past 45 years.
>> That's the law of the land.
I accept the law of the land,
senator.
Judy: Listening to that, how
does that square with what you
see here?
Marcia: I think every supreme
court nominee who goes before
the senate judiciary committee
claims that roe and kc are
settled law.
I think it is time that we all
realize that that is
meaningless.
Yes, they are settled law, and
so are many other supreme court
decisions.
But it does not mean that they
can't be overruled.
They are a constitutional based
decision would -- which gives
the court more liberty in terms
of overturning advantage does a
statutory decision.
Settled law, Timmy, means
nothing -- to me, means nothing.
Judy: In the last question for
you, Marcia, the very fact, the
astonishing fact of this leak.
This is rare.
It does not happen very often.
What do you think it means and
what do you think it means for
the court going forward?
Marcia: That is a good question.
I think there are two things
that we can look at here.
One is what does it mean for the
court going forward?
I think the leak itself probably
means the court is going to be
doing some internal rethinking
about its processes, to ensure
greater secrecy.
And how that affects other
ability to deliberate and
communicate with each other, I
don't know.
We will have to wait and see.
But it also is a question of how
the ultimate decision of --
affects the public's perception
of the court's legitimacy, which
you know a number of the
justices recently have been very
concerned about the court's
legitimacy in the eyes of the
public.
In the court's approval rating
has been declining.
If it stands, this is a decision
that overrules precedence that
the majority of Americans say
don't overrule.
That has to have some kind of
impact, and we will just have to
wait and see what that means for
the court itself.
Judy: On this today when we are
digesting a big piece of
information, we want to thank