A new Pew Research report shows
that green card processing has rebounded to pre-COVID levels.
Looking more closely at the data, this appears to be true for adjustment
of status cases being processed inside the United States, but applications
abroad still lag behind, which we'll discuss in just a moment.
The report shows that USCIS and the Department of State
have managed to speed up processing levels after hitting a new record low in 2020.
There were approximately 282,000 green cards issued between June
and September of 2021, the highest number since 2017.
Compare this the third quarter of 2020 when green card numbers
fell to just 79,000 during the height of the pandemic.
The number of green cards issued to applicants already
in the United States made the biggest jump to 177,000
in the final quarter of 2021, the highest number since 2016.
While this is encouraging news, it still is not fast enough
to process the record number of green cards available this year.
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So what does green card processing at Consular Posts abroad look like?
These were the hardest hit during the pandemic, dropping
to a low of around 19,000 green cards in 2020.
In the final quarter of 2021 they recovered considerably
with roughly 105,000 green cards being issued,
which is approximately 78% of the pre-pandemic quarterly average.
But why haven't these numbers rebounded to pre-pandemic levels
and what can applicants expect in the coming months?
As many of you are painfully aware, green cards issued to applicants abroad
typically require an interview at the consular post in the applicant's
home country, which is completely halted during the pandemic.
This has caused a massive interview backlog, and most consulates
and embassies are still under COVID restrictions and not yet back
to full operational levels.
As of April 2022 there were 421,358 pending interviews
for eligible applicants, with only 32,439 scheduled for the month.
At that rate, it will take ten years to return to pre-COVID levels at this pace.
In response, the State Department is hiring 500 new consular officers
and has allocated $320 million to consular services this year.
The bad news is that these officers won't be fully operational until next
year, meaning we likely won't see the pace of interviews pick up until 2023.
What about USCIS?
If a return to pre-COVID
levels isn't enough to process all the available numbers this year,
what needs to happen to avoid wasting green cards?
Due to the number of unused family
based green cards last year, there are 280,000 employment green cards
available this year, double the normal annual amount of 140,000.
Any leftovers will be lost if they are not used by September 30th 2022.
USCIS has been hiring staff, waiting interviews, and spreading cases
across their various locations to speed up processing times.
In the first quarter of fiscal year 2022, they were able to issue
45,175 employment based green cards.
Projecting out at this pace,
that would total 180,700 by the end of the fiscal year.
Meaning approximately 100,000 green cards would still be lost.
Former USCIS counsel Steve Plastrik predicts that the pace will increase
throughout the year, but still does not expect them to issue the full 280,000.
This means more green cards will be lost this year unless Congress
passes some form of legislation to recapture unused green cards.
A bipartisan group of senators are currently discussing
green card recapture
and several other immigration reform bills that could pass by the end of this year.
I'll include a link to that video here.
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