In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the
form of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture, we don’t
have inside information, and we’re not considering the brand value of players. Purely, their
on-field performance, and their suitability for the team in question.
Today’s team is Arsenal. Welcome to sensible transfers.
This could really have been at least two videos – last season, Arsenal’s system never
seemed settled. Looking at the Premier League, Unai Emery’s side played a back three-based
in 13 games, winning 64% of their available points; they used a back four in the remaining
games, winning 60% of available points. Of course, within both those variants there are
different systems – the most successful was a form of 4-3-1-2 or midfield diamond,
winning 73% of points, but this was only used three times.
However, Unai Emery’s preferred system at the beginning of his Arsenal tenure was the
4-2-3-1 – it’s the system he used most overall and was also his preference at Sevilla
– so that is the system we will be basing this video on. We’ve looked for players
under 27 who have racked up more than 800 minutes, so that there’s a reasonable data
set and each player is either entering their peak or is still a prospect.
Arsenal’s major issue is clear. They conceded too many goals last season, 51, the ninth
worst record in the league despite their fifth placed finish. They were even worse for expected
goals against, giving up an xGA of 54.4, the eleventh worst in the league. While central
midfielders have their part to play in this, as do wide defenders, it’s clear that Arsenal
need an upgrade or two in central defence. Holding and Bielik will develop well, but
Arsenal should look for a strong defender who can also help with deep build-up play.
Our first choice, before, frustratingly, he was snapped up by Sevilla, was Bordeaux’s
Jules Koundé. He was fourth overall in Ligue 1 for total progressive passes, a great indicator
of his ability to generate attacking opportunities for his team from deep. He plays with authority
and elegance and would have been a brilliant signing – sadly for the Gunners, Monchi
worked his magic first, and Koundé will be one to watch at Sevilla.
A strong potential option is Hoffenheim’s 22 year old Austrian centre back Stefan Posch.
Posch is 6ft4 and wins 52% of his aerial duels, while competing in 10.2 defensive duels per
90, the second highest in Europe’s top five leagues for players under consideration; he
only wins around 25% of them, but he’s a very proactive defender, pushing out and looking
to pressure the opposition. His Hoffenheim experience means he’s capable in a back
three, but he can look a little rash, and his left footed passing needs work. He’s
physically imposing, with lots of potential, but not the finished article – with a valuation
of around six million Euros, though, he would be a good option.
And Arsenal have already been linked with William Saliba, a 6ft4 18 year old who played
almost 1400 minutes for St Etienne last season with a similar physical profile to Posch.
Saliba is a strong defender, winning 31.4% of his defensive duels, 61% of his aerial
duels and making 5.17 interceptions per 90. Fifteen forward passes per 90 at 77% is also
healthy, but however promising he is, Saliba has had very little top level experience from
which to draw sensible conclusions. He’s one for the future, but Arsenal might do well
to pick him up now, though it’s hard to be sure he’s ready for a full season in
a demanding role. Nonetheless, signing him would make sense and can be endorsed as a
sensible transfer. Like Posch, he’s raw, but Arsenal could potentially pick up both
and begin to construct a tough, physical back-line with a high ceiling.
Attacking midfield is crucial if Arsenal are to move to a regular, consistent 4-2-3-1.
Last season the attack could look ponderous in build-up as well, with Arsenal 14th worst
for dribbles per 90, albeit with the fifth best percentage success rate.
They were the sixth best for progressive runs per 90, but Arsenal’s 13.8 pales when compared
to Manchester City’s 22.5. They were also fourth best for deep completions 13.6 per
90, though only seventh for accuracy. This indicates a team that gets the ball into good
areas and creates good chances, albeit without maximising their ball-carrying ability. However,
Arsenal were only eleventh for shots per 90 (10.9) – their offensive ability was reduced
by a lack of dynamic runners off and on the ball, leading to attacks that were well constructed
but lacking the incision that really puts defences on the back foot.
Part of the reason that Emery moved towards two strikers towards the end of the season,
and brought back Ramsey, was that late runs from deep were not forthcoming. Mesut Ozil
is still a creative force, but lacks dynamism – Arsenal need to make sure that intricate
passes result in unexpected movement and shooting chances.
We’ve looked, therefore, for a dynamic number 10 who can operate ahead of the midfield double
pivot, making runs to support the striker or move into wide spaces to help the wide
attackers, combined with a high shot volume, an ability to generate key passes, and who
gets touches in the box.
Joaquin Correa, 24 and at Lazio, meets the criteria. He managed five goals and six assists
in Serie A last season, just over three shots per 90 with 43% accuracy, 0.74 key passes
per 90. Crucially he’s a dynamic runner, making 8.2 dribbles per 90 with 66% success
and 3.1 progressive runs per 90, and managed 4.4 touches in the opposition box. He’s
valued at around 20 m Euro, though, so unless Arsenal offload some players, he could be
out of their price range. If not, he’s exactly the sort of player Arsenal should look at.
However, a more sensible move could be looking within, because for this sort of dynamic,
attacking central midfield role, Arsenal already have Joe Willock and Emile Smith-Rowe. Willock
has shown an eye for goal in the U23s, he carries the ball well, gets forwards dynamically,
and looks a real prospect. Smith-Rowe may end up playing further back, but has a similar
propensity for dynamic running and has a greater physical presence than Willock. If Arsenal
are to improve the energy and athleticism of their team, without spending money across
each of the areas we’ve identified, these are two U23 players who are ready to step
up and assume more of a role in the first team. Sometimes it pays to trust what you
already have.
For the same reasons as with the attacking midfield berth, we’re looking for players
who can add dynamism, dribbling, and shooting volume.
An outside choice is Alexis Claude-Maurice, playing for Lorient in Ligue 2. Making 2.57
progressive runs per 90, taking 1.99 shots per 90 with 46% accuracy, and scoring 0.39
goals per 90 from an xG of 0.24 per 90, he’s a clear attacking threat, cutting inside from
the left. He also made 8 dribbles per 90 with 71% success and has real skill and balance
carrying the ball. He’s an outside choice for two reasons – Alex Iwobi should nail
down the starting left-wing slot, which is where Claude-Maurice is happiest, and he’s
only in Ligue 2. Having said that, and unusually for a sensible transfer suggestion, we would
probably buy him anyway as he looks to have an excellent ceiling, could be available fairly
cheaply, and could be loaned out for experience if the squad is crowded.
Viktor Tsygankov of Dinamo Kiev is another interesting young player, though he would
certainly command a higher fee. He’s a left-footed inside forward, a good runner with the ball
at his feet, who scored 11 league goals from an xG of 9.4 and made 4.2 dribbles per 90
with a 77% success rate. He’s managed nine assists with an xA of 7.5 and 2.3 deep completed
passes or crosses per 90, showing that he gets into dangerous areas and makes things
happen. Valued at 20m Euro, though, he could be a stretch for Arsenal and a gamble if the
fee is at that sort of level.
Our choice, therefore, is Robert Skov from FC Copenhagen. He’s scored 20 goals, including
seven penalties, from an xG 12.3, shooting 3.9 times per 90. His 6.1 dribbles per 90,
at 77% success, is strong, as are 2.5 progressive runs per 90. He also managed 3.3 deep completed
crosses or passes per 90, though he only managed three assists – that’s not Skov’s main
function, though. He’s a goal-scorer – left footed, right footed – he can dribble and
finish or pop up in the box to slot home crosses – and he’s exactly the sort of exciting,
dynamic player who would inject pace and trickery into Arsenal’s attacking options. If he
can be persuaded away from Denmark, he could cost in the region of 15m Euro.
These three areas are not the only ones in which Arsenal may wish to strengthen. Left-back
may still be an problematic, and if Hector Bellerin continues to have injury issues,
he will need an understudy. We feel, though, that Arsenal have a central midfield of Matteo
Guendouzi and Lucas Torriera pivot that should be allowed to develop together, while players
like Maitland-Niles provide an interesting back-up option. Arsenal need to add youth,
dynamism, and attacking unpredictability, while also developing a physically imposing
back-line. These transfers would achieve that, for a reasonable price.
And here is what our team would look like:
Cost effective options, who would improve the defence and attack, and change Arsenal’s
team profile for the better – these are sensible transfers.