This is Rummy’s Corner.
Coming up on May 14th, in a bout that will be broadcast on Showtime, the unified IBf/WBC/WBA
super duper junior middleweight champion Jermell Charlo will square off in a rematch against
WBO junior middleweight champion Brian Castano.
Their first bout ended in a draw, so this will be the second time these two will have
battled for the undisputed crown at 154.
Naturally I believe their first encounter gives us a lot of clues about what each champion
wants to try and do.
As a general rule, I tend to favor the better overall boxer in rematches, and in my opinion
Charlo has a much more rounded skill set.
So in theory, I believe Charlo has a lot more room for improvement, perhaps to the point
where he can win more easily than most expect.
We have evidence of Charlo performing better in a rematch with the Tony Harrison situation
where he avenged his lone career loss.
Normally these signs suggest to me that Charlo should be favored in the rematch.
However, with the competitive nature of their first bout, and the fact that Castano’s
strengths seem to match up well against Charlo, I’m expecting another close and competitive
battle where another draw might be a strong possibility.
The first time they fought, the most important determining factor was ring location.
When they were fighting at or near center ring, Charlo was almost always doing better
work.
But whenever Charlo started slowly gravitating nearer to the ropes, Castano was doing better
work.
Castano was generally cutting off the ring well, slowly pressing forward and making Charlo
back up incrementally . Castano would frequently pounce whenever Charlo was near but not quite
touching the ropes, and this sometimes backed Charlo into the ropes where the two traded.
Charlo was still generally boxing well as he neared the edges, up until Castano would
attack at that specific location where he could effectively lunge.
Sometimes Charlo would quickly pivot and maneuver out of harm’s way, but Castano was usually
inflicting some kind of damage up and down.
At times Charlo was still boxing effectively off the ropes, indeed he had some of his best
moments when he was fighting off the ropes, first and round 2, and especially in round
10.
And in round 10 Charlo hurt Castano and forced him into fighting defensively, where he was
trying to box and move and stay out of harm’s way.
But as a general rule, Castano was otherwise usually able to minimize Charlo’s effectiveness
whenever he had him up near the ropes.
I think one of the big keys for Charlo is to take a page out of the Emanuel-Wladimir
playbook, where he needs to effectively command center ring.
Beyond that, feinting, feinting, feinting.
Charlo doesn’t feint a whole lot, and I believe if he did he’d be far more effective,
because he is actually very good at reading his opponent and creating openings for his
power.
He’s always studiously searching.
So the addition of feinting into his repertoire against Castano will be especially beneficial
if he can start reading Castano’s reactions to his feints.
But he really needs to sell and disguise them well.
If he can get Castano to start biting on them, then he will have an easier time commanding
center ring.
I think the key for Castano is that he needs to do everything in his power to try and lull
Charlo into the same type of fight they had last time.
Charlo also has good footwork,so Castano will want to persuade him towards the edges.
Castano closes the gap explosively whenever he has Charlo near the ropes, but he closes
it more slowly and incrementally when Charlo is center ring.
Castano’s best weapon in the center was to try and sneak in a body shot, and he got
a few good ones in from this location.
Bottom line, there were less fireworks at mid ring.
Charlo wants to stay in the center, and not fall into getting near the ropes where Castano
launched his attacks with the greatest success.
I think this is a toss up that will once again be close and competitive, but I think Castano
absolutely needs the fight ebb and flow to unfold like the last time.
Short of that, I think Castano is going to have some problems iif Charlo can make the
necessary adjustments.
If Charlo can command center ring and keep the bulk of the action there, he can maybe
even win easily on points, and if he can hurt Castano earlier, and do it from mid-range
rather than from off or near the ropes, he can score a knockout as well.
For my official prediction, I simply believe Charlo has more room for improvement, but
if Castano brings his A-game, I think the clash of styles will once again prove challenging
for Charlo.
At the end of the day, I think Charlo will effectively make enough adjustments that he
will earn a decision victory over the distance, but what the hell do I know.
Whatever happens, I am definitely looking forward to it, and may the best man win on
that night!
Assuming we have a winner this time rather than a draw, it will be the first undisputed
junior middleweight champion since Winky Wright, and it will likewise be the first undisputed
champion at 154 during the modern 4-belt era.
Good luck to both!
So who do you think will win?
Please share your thoughts in the comment section.
Thanks for watching everyone, I hope you enjoyed, and have a wonderful night.
This is Rummy’s Corner.