Welcome back... to the second half... of the program.
ON VIEW POINT... today Russia celebrates Victory Day... on this Monday...
May 9th... the anniversary... of the SOVIET UNION'S defeat... of NAZI GERMANY... in World
War Two.
Now... this year's celebration... comes... against the backdrop... of KREMLIN'S atrocities...
in Ukraine.
Accordingly...
we delve into... their broader implications...
on global order... and... economy.
For more...
I have Professor Song Soo-young ... from Chung-Ang University...
here in the studio.
Professor Song... welcome back.
I also have Professor Kim Jae-chun ... at Sogang University...
LIVE on the LINE.
It's a pleasure... to have you... on...
Professor Kim.
1) Professor Song...
Victory Day celebrations...
are poised... to begin...
soon... over in Russia... and... there has been much speculation...
about the details... of Vladimir Putin's address... to his people.
Some say... he may declare... an all-out war... against Ukraine... while...
others believe... he may claim...
some form of false victory.
GRANTED... nobody... but Putin himself... knows...
what he will say...
BUT... based on what you've read or seen... thus far... from the media...
what do you predict?
2) Professor Kim... what are the chances... of...
Mr. Putin formally declaring war... against Ukraine...
AND... what would be the implications... of such a declaration...
on the homefront... on Ukraine... and... on Western countries... supporting...
Ukraine?
((The declaration would allow Putin... to mobilize Russia's reserve forces.))
3) Professor Song... the sanctions...
imposed... on Russia... in response... to its invasion of Ukraine... are unprecedented...
in their scale... and scope.
What has been... the impact... of these sanctions... on Russia's economy?
((Russia's largest banks have been removed... from the SWIFT payment system.
OVER 500 multinational companies... from McDonalds... to B-P... have decided... to halt operations
in Russia.
The European Union is set... to impose... a Russian oil and gas embargo.
Russia earns about 1-BILLION U.S. dollars... a day... from oil and gas exports to Europe.))
4) Staying with sanctions...
Professor Kim... back in 2014...
South Korea did not impose... sanctions... on Russia... in response... to its aggression...
in Crimea.
BUT... this time around... the country has joined...
its Western allies... in taking...
punitive measures.
How do you explain...
this shift... in foreign policy?
((Some pundits claim...
it's a reflection... of South Korea's growing international standing and expectation.))
5) Professor Song... going back... to the economic implications... of Russia's aggression.
The war... in Ukraine... has aggravated...
inflationary pressures... in the U.S.... the U.K.... within the EU... and of course...
here in South Korea.
But...
I hear... that you believe...
this phenomenon will be short-lived.
Do you care...
to elaborate?
6) Professor Kim... with regard to global order... and... speaking...
strictly...
within your capacity...
as a scholar... how...
do you suppose... is...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine... perhaps...
SHAPING...
China's plans... of expanding...
its regional presence?
7) Professor Song... aside from
oil and gas...
Russia... as well as Ukraine... for that matter...
are major exporters... of fertilizer... wheat... and barley.
And... already...
reports are rampant... about the related ripple effects... on food security.
What are your thoughts... on this reality?
And... with regard to South Korea...
what options...
does...
it have... to ensure... steady supplies?
((In Sri Lanka... soaring bread prices have prompted violent confrontations between the
people and government.
U.N. FOOD AGENCY says... global food prices eased...
slightly...
in April.))
8) Professor Kim...
some pundits have shared... concerns... that...
Russia's hostile campaign in Ukraine...
may set... a precedent... for North Korea... which... essentially... is another nuclear-armed
state...
with REVISIONIST aspirations...
for the Korean peninsula.
How do you respond?
9) Professor Song... what is your forecast...
with regard... to global economic growth...
this year... should...
Russia's brutality... against Ukraine... continue?
((Some observers speak about... a limited impact... claiming...
the world economy appears... to have absorbed...
the initial shockwaves... of Russia's invasion.))
10) Professor Kim... it has been said... that... sanctions will not end the war... and may
instead...
fuel nationalism...
within Russia... in the long run... making...
it... easier... for Putin... to justify...
his atrocities... in Ukraine.
Do you agree?
If so... what do you propose?
11) Professor Song... with a new South Korean administration...
poised... to take office...
tomorrow... that would be MAY 10th... what words... of advice... would you like... to
extend...
to limit... the potential economic fallout... for South Korea... amid... a prolonged warfare...
in Ukraine?
12) Professor Kim... what endgame... do you envision...
with
regard to Russia's invasion... of Ukraine?
All right