- Yes, my fourth-grade basketball team is now two and oh.
Thank you for asking.
Something very weird happened recently.
Deval Patrick, the former Governor of Massachusetts,
announced that he would not run
for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.
It was, in a word, shocking.
Why?
Because virtually every Democrat you can think of,
and lots and lots you can't think of,
are thinking about running for the chance
to take on President Donald Trump in two years time.
Do you think I'm kidding?
Number one, I never kid.
Number two, here's a full list of Democrats
who expressed some to a lot of interest in the race.
Let's go.
Michael Bennett, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker,
Sherrod Brown, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg,
Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard,
Eric Garcetti, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris,
John Hickenlooper, Eric Holder, Jay Inslee,
John Kerry, Amy Klobuchar, Mitch Landrieu,
Terry McAuliffe, Jeff Merkley, Chris Murphy,
Martin O'Malley, Beto O'Rourke, Tim Ryan,
Bernie Sanders, Adam Schiff, Howard Schultz,
Tom Steyer, Eric Swalwell, and Elizabeth Warren.
That's 31 names, 31.
And I'm sure a few names not on that list
will also wind up running.
And that's not including
the Star Wars cantina full of total randoms
who have already filed with the Federal Election Commission
to run for president.
My two favorites,
John Kingtamer D'Aura
and, of course, Sexy Vegan.
(clears throat) Real thing.
If you add up all the people
who are already running for president,
the list totals 422 hopefuls,
according to the indispensable Ballotpedia website.
It's a 125 Democrats, 57 Republicans,
18 Libertarians, and 10 Green Party candidates.
And there's a wealth of lesser-known parties in there too,
like the Commandements Party, the YES party,
and of course, the Federalist party.
Let's get back to the 30 plus people
who actually could wind up as
the Democratic presidential nominee against Donald Trump.
If, say, 2/3 of them, so 20ish because math,
actually do run, they would comprise
the largest presidential field
for either party in recent political memory.
In 2016, 17 Republicans ran for president.
In 2008, 10 Democrats ran.
Never forget Mike Gravel.
(drum boing)
Now that large number of candidates
is in stark contrast to
the relatively limited fields in past decades.
In '92 for example, just six Democrats ran for president.
In 1988, it was eight on the Democratic side,
and six on the Republican side,
for a total of, eight plus six, 14,
which could be half of the number of Democrats alone
who seek the presidency in 2020.
Now there are a few reasons for the 2020
field's likely size, some having to do with Donald Trump,
some having to do with the nature
of our current political culture.
So the Trump reason is simple.
He looks very, very vulnerable right now.
His job approval rating is at just 40%
in the latest weekly Gallup poll.
His party, the Republican party,
just suffered through a wave election against them,
with white suburban women fleeing the party in droves.
And then there's the fact that Trump
actually lost the popular vote in 2016
by almost three million votes to Hillary Clinton.
Probably didn't know that.
So there's all that.
And there is the fact that Trump,
for all the problems he's experienced
in his first two years in office,
shows roughly zero inclination or ability to change course.
He is who he is,
which, judging from his poll numbers,
is a very good thing for Democrats in 2020.
Now the major non-Trump reason
that more people run for president these days
than even 20 years ago
is that it's good for business.
Given the massive interest in politics these days,
and that is directly attributable to Trump,
the 2020 campaign will be the most covered ever.
Starting, well, right now, cable TV
and all of your favorite print outlets
will be covering this race full time all the time.
Given the level of time, attention, and money
that will flow into the Democratic contest,
why not run for president and see if you happen
to catch lightning in a bottle.
It can, and has, happened.
Here's an example.
Take Eric Garcetti.
He's a known quantity in Southern California.
He's the mayor of Los Angeles.
But let's say he runs for president,
he's going to,
and manages to get some buzz going in the race.
Even if he loses the nomination,
Garcetti could wind up on the ticket as vice-president
in his absolute best case scenario,
or as a member of the next Democratic president's cabinet
if he or she wins.
Now, Garcetti ain't getting anywhere near
that rarefied political air if he just stays in Los Angeles,
or even if he, down the line,
runs for governor of California.
There is simply no springboard
like a presidential springboard,
and all of these potential Democratic candidates know it.
Regardless of the why behind the many Democratic candidates
who will run for president,
there's no question that such a large field
presents a unique challenge for anyone
who is going to be in this race.
Think of it like this.
Okay, in the Kentucky Derby,
the first of three Triple Crown races in horse racing,
the field of horses is always really large,
because everyone and their brother registers their horse
for that race, on the off chance
that the horse happens to win.
Now, with such a big field, weird things happen.
The front-runner gets bumped out of the starting gate
and never recovers, we've seen that.
Another horse can't weave its way
through traffic to the front.
A third shoots a gap caused by a handful of horses
at the front of the pack, all angling each other out.
A fourth can't keep up with the pace set by the rabbit.
You get the idea.
On and on it goes.
The more people in a race for president,
the more uncertainty in that race,
the more unpredictable moments and outcomes.
Chaos as the rule.
All of which adds up to this:
the 2020 Democratic race looks to be
the most wide open contest for a presidential nomination
in modern history.
And that is The Point.
Make sure to check out new episodes of The Point
every Tuesday and Thursday.