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>> ALL RIGHT.
WELCOME BACK.
WE HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF MARCH
WITH A GREAT DEAL OF PROMISE ON
THE PANDEMIC FRONT.
CAUSES AND HOSPITALIZATIONS KEEP
DROPPING AS HAS GUIDANCE ON
MASKS AND OTHER MEASURES.
BUT THE DEPARTMENT OF HUMAN
HEALTH AND SERVICES IS ASKING US
TO PROCEED MINDFULLY.
AND LET’S GO TO DR. NATASHA
BAGDASARIAN.
GLAD TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM
AGAIN.
I KNOW YOU’RE GETTING THE
QUESTION A LOT, IS THE PANDEMIC
OVER?
DO WE--
WILL WE EVER GET TO A POINT
WHERE WE CAN TALK LIKE THAT OR
ALWAYS TALKING ABOUT PHASES OF
IT AND WHERE WE ARE ON THOSE
PHASES?
>> WELL, THE PANDEMIC WILL END,
BUT WHAT I WANT TO COMMUNICATE
TO THE PUBLIC IS THAT IT’S NOT A
STRAIGHT LINE TO THE FINISH.
IT’S NOT THAT THINGS ARE GOING
TO JUST KEEP GETTING BETTER AND
BETTER AND ONE DAY WE WON’T HAVE
TO THINK ABOUT COVID ANYMORE.
WHAT WE’RE ACTUALLY THINKING
ABOUT IS THAT AS WE LOOK AT
COVID, THINGS WILL BECOME MORE
PREDICTABLE.
THAT MEANS THAT WE WILL SEE
SURGES IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, BUT
THE SURGES WILL BECOME LINKED TO
EITHER MUCH CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER, SO IT’S POSSIBLE TO SEE
A SURGE AROUND WINTER TIME, WHEN
THE WEATHER GETS COLD.
IT’S POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
SURGE WHEN SCHOOLS REOPEN, AND I
ALSO ANTICIPATE SEEING SURGES
RELATED TO NEW VARIANTS OF
CONCERN.
>> Devin: YEAH.
>> SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
INCREASES IN CASES, BUT WE’RE
GOING TO LOOK AT PREDICTING THEM
IN A BETTER WAY SO THAT THE
PUBLIC CAN KNOW WHAT’S COMING UP
AND WHAT WE’RE ANTICIPATING.
BUT WE WILL SEE THINGS IMPROVING
AND THEN POTENTIALLY GETTING A
LITTLE BIT WORSE AND THEN
GETTING BETTER AND THEN A LITTLE
BIT WORSE AGAIN.
SO WHAT WE’RE TRYING TO COMPLUN
COMMUNICATE OUT.
WE EXPECT TO SEE TIMES OF RISK
AND LOWER RISK.
AND EVERYBODY HAS BEEN ON HIGH
ALERT THE LAST TWO YEARS.
WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS BE ABLE TO
COMMUNICATE THIS IS A RELATIVELY
LOWER RISK AFTER OMICRON SURGE,
THINGS MAY CHANGE.
>> Devin: IT’S INTERESTING
BECAUSE WE FOUND OURSELVES LAST
WEEK, A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE WE
WERE AROUND A THOUSAND CASES A
DAY, WHICH IS SO MUCH LOWER THAN
WE WERE AND YET, THAT MEANS A
THOUSAND PEOPLE ARE STILL COMING
DOWN WITH COVID EACH OF THOSE
DAYS, THAT’S STILL A LOT, ISN’T
IT?
>> IT’S STILL A LOT, BUT WE HAVE
TO KEEP IN MIND THE METRICS
DON’T MEAN THE SAME THING THEY
MEANT A YEARS AGO OR TWO YEARS
AGO AND IT’S SIMPLY BECAUSE WE
HAVE NEW TOOLS, TOOLS THAT
WEREN’T AVAILABLE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PANDEMIC AND
THERE MAY STILL BE THE SAME
NUMBERS OF CASES, BUT IF THEY’RE
NOT CAUSING SEVERE OUTCOMES AND
DEATHS, IF THEY’RE NOT
OVERWHELMING THE HEALTH CARE
SYSTEMS AND IF OUR SCHOOLS AND
OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE IS ABLE TO
REMAIN OPEN, THEN WE’RE OKAY.
>> Devin: SO YOU’VE KIND OF--
THE DEPARTMENT’S KIND OF CREATED
THIS CYCLICAL GRAPHIC WHERE
WE’RE A PRE-SURGE, THE SURGE
ITSELF OR POST-SURGE AND YOU
KIND OF ALLUDED TO THIS EARLIER.
IT’S EASIER TO TELL WHEN WE’RE
IN A SURGE, I GUESS AND WE CAN
UNDERSTAND A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
WHAT A POST-SURGE FEELS LIKE.
IT’S SO IMPORTANT AND HOW MUCH
BETTER HAVE WE GOTTEN AT
RECOGNIZING WHAT PRE-SURGE LOOKS
LIKE?
THAT SEEM TO ME TO BE THE MOST
IMPORTANT OF THE CYCLE.
>> IT CERTAINLY IS, IT’S THE
READINESS COMPONENT AND TELLING
THE COMPANY WHAT’S COMING NEXT.
WE HAD A PRACTICE RUN WITH
OMICRON AND WHAT WE SAW WAS, WE
SAW WHAT OMICRON WAS DOING
ACROSS THE WORLD AND ACROSS THE
COUNTRY, AND SO, WE LOOKED AT
MODELING, AND THAT MODELING WAS
ABLE TO TELL US WHEN WE EXPECTED
TO SEE A PEAK OF CASES, HOW LONG
WE EXPECTED THAT TO LAST AND
WHEN THINGS WOULD RETURN TO
BASELINE LEVELS AND OUR MODELING
WAS RIGHT ON.
SO I CAN’T SAY THAT WE WOULD BE
ABLE TO PREDICT SURGES WITH 100%
ACCURACY, BUT THINK OF THIS AS A
WEATHER REPORT.
WHAT WE CAN AT LEAST LET THE
PUBLIC KNOW WHAT WE’RE
ANTICIPATING IN THE NEXT FEW
WEEKS TO MONTHS.
>> Devin: ONE OF THE TOOLS THAT
YOU MENTIONED THAT WE NOW HAVE,
YES, THIS WIDELY AVAILABLE
VACCINE AND BOOSTERS.
DO YOU THINK WE’VE GOT A DECENT
UNDERSTANDING THEN OF WHO WILL
NEED BOOSTERS AND HOW OFTEN
WE’LL NEED THEM GOING FORWARD?
AND HOW OFTEN WILL THOSE
BOOSTERS NEED TO BE MODIFIED FOR
THESE NEW VARIANTS?
>> SO WE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND
THAT THE VIRUS HAS ONLY BEEN
WITH US FOR TWO YEARS AND THE
VACCINE HAS ONLY BEEN WITH US
JUST OVER A YEAR.
>> Devin: RIGHT.
>> SO WE DON’T HAVE THAT
LONG-TERM DATA.
WE WILL GET A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING AS TIME GOES ON
AND THAT’S ONE OF THE THINGS
THAT WE’RE FOLLOWING VERY
CLOSELY.
>> Devin: THAT’S A LITTLE
DAUNTING.
THE PART OF -- YOU’RE RIGHT,
THERE’S STILL SO MUCH OF THIS
WE’RE HAVING TO LEARN.
IF YOU HAVE TO LOOK NOW THE WAY
THAT WE RESPONDED.
WHAT WOULD YOU SAY ARE THE
TAKEAWAYS WHAT WE DID NOT DO
WELL AND NEED TO IMPROVE THE
NEXT TIME?
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, THIS IS
REALLY ABOUT ENGAGING WITH THE
PUBLIC AND MAKING SURE THAT WE
HAVE THE PUBLIC TRUST.
SO, I THINK HAVING CONVERSATIONS
LIKE THIS, THAT’S ONE WAY TO
REALLY ENGAGE AND MAKE SURE THAT
WE’RE TELLING PEOPLE WHAT WE
WOULD LIKE THEM TO KNOW.
BUT THEN, WE ALSO NEED TO HAVE
PEOPLE TAKING OUR PUBLIC HEALTH
RECOMMENDATIONS.
SO, I THINK THAT IF WE CAN
IMPROVE OUR COMMUNICATIONS, AND
REALLY ENGAGE WITH THE PUBLIC,
AND GET THAT LEVEL OF PUBLIC
TRUST BACK.
MY HOPE IS THAT FOR THE NEXT
SURGE THAT WE SEE, WE CAN SIGNAL
EARLY WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE IT
COMING AND THAT PEOPLE WILL
REALLY HEED OUR RECOMMENDATIONS,
WHETHER THERE ARE
RECOMMENDATIONS AROUND BOOSTERS
OR MASKING OR OUR OTHER TOOLS.
SO I THINK HAVING CONVERSATIONS
LIKE THIS TODAY IS VERY
IMPORTANT.
>> Devin: I THINK IT WAS CRAIN’S
DETROIT BUSINESS THAT HAD A
PIECE THIS PAST WEEK THAT I
THOUGHT WAS REALLY INTERESTING,
AND THAT WAS A LOT OF,
ESPECIALLY SMALLER HOSPITAL
SYSTEMS AND SMALLER HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES AROUND THE STATE MAY
HAVE A REALLY DIFFICULT TIME
RECOVERING FROM WHAT IT TOOK TO
GET US THROUGH AT LEAST TO THIS
POINT OF THE PANDEMIC.
DO YOU HAVE ANY LONG-TERM
CONCERNS ABOUT HEALTH CARE
ACROSS THE STATE, GIVEN WHAT SO
MANY HOSPITALS HAVE BEEN
THROUGH?
>> YOU KNOW, IT WILL CERTAINLY
TAKE TIME.
I THINK THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE
HOSPITALS INUNDATED WITH
COVID-19 CASES WHEN WE SAW THAT
DELTA SURGE, WITH THE OMICRON
SURGE, JUST BACK-TO-BACK, BUT
THERE WERE SO MANY OTHER CASES
THAT WE HAD TO CANCEL OR
POSTPONE.
SO IT’S GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME
TO RECOVER.
AND SO, WHAT WE REALLY NEED TO
DO IS KEEP THE NUMBER OF CASES
DOWN AS LONG AS WE CAN AND
REALLY HOLD OFF THE NEXT WAVE OF
CASES FOR AS LONG AS WE CAN, SO
THAT HOSPITALS DO HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER.
>> Devin: THE OTHER LONG-TERM
IMPACT THAT WE’RE SEEING BEYOND
NEEDING TO KEEP THIS THING AT
BAY, AS THESE VARIANTS COME
ALONG, ARE WHAT THEY CALL THE
LONG HAUL COVID PATIENTS.
WE STILL DON’T KNOW VERY MUCH AT
ALL, I DON’T THINK WE CAN
GENERALLY
GENERALIZE WHO IS LIKELY TO HAVE
LONG-TERM PROBLEMS.
GIVE ME YOUR THOUGHTS ON LONG
HAUL.
>> I THINK IT’S VERY TRUE THAT
WE DON’T HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PREDICT WHO WILL HAVE LONG-TERM
SYSTEMS AND WHO WON’T.
WE SAW PEOPLE WHO HAD RELATIVELY
MILD DISEASE CAN END UP WITH
LONG HAUL COVID AND AGAIN, OUR
UNDERSTANDING ABOUT THE
LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF
INFECTIONS, WE’RE STILL
LEARNING.
WE DON’T KNOW HOW THIS WILL
AFFECT PEOPLE FIVE YEARS
POST-INFECTION OR 10 YEARS
POST-INFECTION SO WE’RE STILL
REALLY FIGURING OUT WHAT SOME OF
THE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES COULD
BE.
AND THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS
WHY GETTING VACCINATED IS SO
IMPORTANT.
WE KNOW THAT VACCINES DON’T
STICK AROUND IN YOUR BODY FOR
VERY LONG.
IT’S JUST A LITTLE MESSENGER
THAT TELLS YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM
HOW TO RESPOND SO THE LONG-TERM
CONSEQUENCES OF VACCINES HAVE
BEEN WELL STUDIED AND
WELL-ELUCIDATED, BUT WHAT WE’RE
REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT WOULD BE
LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF COVID
INFECTIONS FOR WHICH WE REALLY
DON’T KNOW.
>> Devin: AND WE’RE FIGHTING
LONG-TERM IMPACTS OF
MISINFORMATION, JUST WHAT YOU’RE
SAYING ABOUT THE VACCINE, WE’RE
STILL--
I STILL SEE E-MAILS ABOUT THAT
ON A WEEKLY BASIS.
DOCTOR, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
YOUR THOUGHTS AND YOUR TIME AND
WE’LL TALK TO YOU AGAIN SOON ON