Historians studying the Dominion War will sometimes make reference to a little known
event that occurred in 2374, the second year of the conflict.
Merken Vreenak, a Romulan Senator, returning to Romulus from a diplomatic meeting on Soukara,
was killed in a tragic shuttle accident.
Now the death of Vreenak might not have even been a historical footnote it is today , were
it not for what happened immediately after, the Romulan Star Empire, which up until this
point had been steadfastly neutral in the ongoing conflict, declared war on the Dominion
and its allies.
This would prove to be the turning point in the war, which would ultimately conclude with
the victory of the United Federation of Planets, the Klingon Empire, and the Romulans.
Now there’s nothing to suggest any kind of correlation between the death of this Senator
and the Romulan declaration of war, but the timing has been enough to lead to several
conspiracy theories.
The most common is that Vreenak had uncovered evidence of a preemptive strike to be launched
by the Dominion against the Romulan Empire, and he was assassinated to prevent this evidence
from being revealed.
Some go even further, and claim that this evidence was given to Vreenak, or perhaps
even fabricated by members of Starfleet Intelligence.
While neither the Romulan nor Federation government has ever commented on this directly, if we
accept the premise and operate on the assumption it’s entirely true, it does open up an interesting
question.
What if whatever evidence supposedly convinced the Romulans to enter the war was never found,
and the Federation and Klingons were forced to continue the fight alone.
On this episode of Incoming, that’s the hypothetical we’ll be discussing.
First though, let’s quickly review the situation at this point in the war.
In 2374 it was generally assumed that the defeat of the Federation-Klingon alliance
was a matter of when, and not if.
In nearly every major fleet engagement, the Dominion consistently emerged triumphant,
inflicting significant casualties on their adversaries.
Only in the operation to retake Deep Space Nine did the Federation achieve a notable
victory, and while it was enormously significant: restoring Starfleet’s ontrol over the Bajoran
wormhole and preventing the entry of more Dominion reinforcements to the quadrant, it
was not enough to effect the greater strategic situation.
Instead, the redeployment of so many starships to take part in this campaign left many other
sectors undermanned.
Dominion counter-attacks, most notably the rapid conquest of Betazed, threatened the
very heart of the Federation.
Vulcan, Andor, Tellar, and Alpha Centauri were all threatened, and repeated Federation
counter-attacks failed to regain the initiative.
So if we imagine then that Romulan reinforcements are not coming, what happens next?
Well, without the intervention of some unexpected third party; a Borg incursion into Dominion
space, or some act by the Q for example.
It’s very hard to see a path to victory for the Federation.
I think the war, or at least its major campaigns would have, at most, gone on another year
and it would see some of the most historically important Federation worlds become battlegrounds.
Who knows in what order these battles would have occurred, but I don’t think it’s
a huge stretch to say that if Vulcan itself was attacked, its government might not have
seen the logic of an unconditional surrender.
Andoria by contrast would have likely fought on to the end, perhaps even forcing the Dominion
to destroy it utterly lest it become the site of a protracted guerrilla war.
Tellar might go either way, its people are known for their stubbornness and pride, but
it’s difficult to know to what extent that might influence the decision of whether or
not to surrender.
That only leaves Earth, and I am happy to agree with Quark on this one, I believe humanity
would have become as nasty and violent as the most bloodthirsty Klingon.
I can’t imagine Earth surrendering but how the Dominion would respond to this is another
question.
The Dominion’s plans for the post-war Alpha Quadrant have never fully been revealed, but
we do know there were at least high-level discussions, advocating for the eradication
of Earth’s population.
Perhaps ironically, it was Gul Dukat, one of the most hated men in the galaxy, who argued
against this:
true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place.
To force them to acknowledge your greatness.
WEYOUN: Then you kill them?
DUKAT: Only if it's necessary.
WEYOUN: I had no idea.
Had they been given the chance to put this theory into practice against a hostile population
on Earth who knows how it might have gone.
But I think we can say with a bit of certainty that the Solar System would have been an active
warzone for quite a while.
The Dominion would certainly destroy the system’s infrastructure: the Jupiter Research Station,
the colonies in the Asteroid Belt, the Utopia Planitia Fleet Yards and countless others.
There would certainly be prolonged resistance on Mars itself, and eventually Luna when it
was threatened, but lacking the same importance as Earth, the Dominion would be less reticent
in annihilating these worlds from orbit.
That would leave only a last stand over Earth, composed of whatever remnants of Starfleet
couldn’t flee the system in time, and Spacedock One.
Once the Dominion had achieved orbital supremacy, the San Francisco Fleet Yards, Starfleet Academy,
Starfleet Headquarters, and the Office of the Federation President in Paris, would likely
all be destroyed in the opening bombardment.
Jem’Hadar would then be landed in enormous numbers.
I think the fighting would continue for quite awhile maybe even far, far longer than the
dominion expected, and in this case, the initially limited orbital bombardment, in an effort
to force a surrender, would quickly be expanded to include major urban centers, or even sites
of historical importance such as the Warp 5 Complex near Bozeman, Montana.
Ultimately though, whether through some sort of formal surrender, or total eradication,
Earth would be conquered.
And this would probably be enough to end the war.
I don’t want to discount the hundreds of member worlds across the remainder of the
Federation, many of which I’m sure would be adamant in keeping up the struggle, but
without Earth, any hopes of victory vanish.
The Federation would begin to splinter, with many worlds and colonies hoping to sign a
separate peace with the Dominion, in the interest of ensuring better treatment in the post-war
era.
That leaves the Romulan Star Empire as the only major power in the Alpha or Beta Quadrants
not wholly subsumed within the Dominion sphere of influence.
I love the Romulans more than anyone, but they are at their strongest when they can
use their talents for espionage and political maneuvering.
When confronted by a single unified rival that now extends across almost the entire
Romulan border, they have no chance.
The conquest of the Romulan Star Empire would be brutal on both sides, but it would be brief.
But while the Federation and its allies would certainly have lost without the intervention
of the Romulans, I’m not sure the Dominion would have won.
During the conflict, the changeling Founders of the Dominion were infected by a morphogenic
virus that would have ultimately destroyed them had it not been cured.
If we assume that the Dominion would have been unable to develop a cure before the Founders
were annihilated, then the situation would have become even worse.
Without their spiritual foundation, their literal gods, the Vorta would have struggled
to keep the Dominion together.
I think it's very possible that this enormous superpower would begin to splinter, slowly
at first and then faster and faster.
Eventually, the supplies of ketracel white needed to maintain discipline within the Jem’Hadar
would be insufficient.
Once this happened, a civil war within the Dominion would occur, further aggravating
the problem.
The entirety of the Jem’Hadar would become a howling, screaming mass of fury, rampaging
across every quadrant of the Galaxy.
Only the Borg Collective would be safe, while the decimated worlds of the Alpha and Beta
quadrants would be especially vulnerable.
The galaxy would then find itself in a Dark Age, with every major interstellar civilization,
if not entirely destroyed, at least so severely damaged that their recovery, if achievable
at all, would take at least several centuries.
The Borg would be free to expand with little resistance, ultimately assimilating the entire
galaxy.
However, I’m not sure if things would ever get this far, because I severely doubt that
the Romulans would have just sat by and let the Federation be destroyed.
The Romulans would have not been oblivious to the interstellar political situation that
a Dominion victory would create.
Regardless of whether Vreenak was carrying secret evidence or not, I think a Romulan
intervention was inevitable.
The fact that when they did enter the war, they were able to strike 15 bases almost immediately,
says to me that they had been planning their entry for quite some time, and had secretly
been mobilizing.
The Romulan government was likely just waiting until the moment when the Federation’s position
was at its most dire.
If Starfleet was truly desperate, then the Romulans could make extravagant demands in
exchange for an alliance.
However, we also need to remember that Romulan aspirations sometimes far outstrip their ability
or judgment.
They have a real tendency to overreach or pursue unrealistic objectives.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Romulans to completely misjudge the
situation, enter the war too late, and be unable to affect the outcome.
So if indeed Vreenak was assassinated, perhaps we should all be grateful.
But that of course is just my opinion!
And even though I was just talking to the Guardian of Forever, it said I absolutely
nailed this, I’d like to hear your thoughts.
Do you agree with my assessment?
And what do you think actually happened to Senator Vreenak?
And actually, one other question for you.
As we’ll soon mention in the outro, this is a pilot episode for a new series in which
we consider the big “what ifs” from across alternate worlds.
And there are two ways I think we could present this series.
The first, is what we just did.
A more analytical analysis, in which we review the evidence, present it to you, and include
maybe a few different conclusions.
The second would be something not entirely dissimilar to our regular episodes, in which
we present the same material, as if it had actually happened.
Each format has its own benefits and drawbacks, so if you have a preference for one over the
other, please let me know in the comments.
And until next time, this has been Incoming.
What you just watched is the pilot for a new series we’re calling “Alternate History”,
where the Templin Institute investigates the many “what ifs” across alternate worlds.
This is one of four new shoes we’re releasing this week, and on Friday our Patrons will
have the chance to vote on which ones will become regular additions to Incoming.
If you’d like to take part, a pledge of just $2 gets you a vote.