This is Rummy’s Corner.
Coming up on August 20th in a championship bout that will be broadcast on the relatively
new streaming app service still known as DAZN, Oleksandr Usyk will put his unified IBF/WBO/WBA
super duper heavyweight championship on the line in an immediate rematch against former
two-time unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua.
They first met in September of last year when Usyk won a 12 round unanimous decision to
earn the unified crown.
Most observers agree that the biggest mistake for AJ was trying to outbox a master boxer,
and he had no plan B.
Given the way the styles clashed when they first fought, a lot of people believe that
AJ needs to come out much more aggressively, with the belief that he will probably need
a knockout to win.
I don’t think that is necessarily true.
In the first fight, the official cards favored Usyk by scores of 117-112, 116-112, and 115-113.
In that sense, if AJ could have reversed the outcome and nicked just 2 of the rounds he
lost in the judging, the fight would have been ruled a draw.
Perhaps a couple of the scores were a little generous to AJ, but the point stands.
If he can swing 2 or 3 close rounds his way, he’s at least in it.
Now obviously, AJ can’t just go out there expecting to get better results if he simply
tries to do what didn’t work last time.
In other words, he needs to do more than simply try and outbox a masterboxer like Usyk.
The basic game plan may have worked for him in the Ruiz rematch, but it was never going
to work as effectively against someone like Usyk.
AJ was never able to build any real momentum in their first bout.
He started gaining a little steam in rounds 5 and 6 where he was having more success,
but then Usyk reasserted himself to begin the second half of the fight.
In the later portions, AJ still fought effectively at times, landing a nice shot here and there
and working downstairs a little, but he was unable to solve the riddle that is Oleksandr
Usyk.
In order for AJ to win the rematch he needs to build off the small successes he did have,
and he is going to need to make a few adjustments.
But AJ doesn’t need to reinvent the wheel here, and completely transform his style.
He does however need to be willing to mix things up and take more risks if he wants
to give himself his best chance.
But he can’t just go out there recklessly looking to overpower Usyk, because he will
want to properly pace himself and not become carelessly vulnerable.
But he needs to take more risks, and I think it really boils down to 4 things.
He needs to throw a little more, he needs to commit a little more often when he does
throw, and he needs to invest more effort working the body of Usyk.
All 3 of those things require more output from Joshua, and the more AJ throws, the more
he will create potential countering opportunities for Usyk, and Usyk is an outstanding counter-puncher.
But the 4th and most important thing he needs to do, while throwing more, committing more,
and working downstairs more, is he needs to make the fight more physical.
When AJ was at his worst last time, it was when he was trying to stay at range and outbox
Usyk.
That was the case for much of the first 4 rounds, and much of the later rounds.
When AJ was having the most success, he was throwing his jab with a bit more authority,
using his feet more, and finding ways to touch him up with probing shots which helped create
some windows for a heavier follow-up.
That was basically rounds 5 and 6.
But AJ never capitalized on those moments.
He needs to build on what was working last time around, and try to make things more physical
with more output and more variety.
It wouldn’t hurt AJ to try and emulate some of the things Tyson Fury did in his rematch
with Wilder in terms of making the fight physical, where he finds ways to lean his massive torso
all over Usyk to try and tire his legs.
And he should likewise try and rough him up whenever he’s in tight quarters, and throw
with a free hand unless and until the ref breaks them.
And the thing of it is, I absolutely believe that AJ will come in with a smarter approach
this time around.
I believe the change in team will serve him well, and I think Robert Garcia will help
formulate a fight plan that will give AJ his best chance at victory.
AJ has a proven ability of making strategic adjustments during his pre-fight preparations.
We saw evidence of this in the Ruiz rematch.
On the other hand, AJ has never been particularly good at making adjustments on the fly when
plan A isn’t working.
He’s great at sticking to a game plan, but when that isn’t working he has never been
particularly good at adapting in the heat of battle.
This is another area where I believe Robert Garcia will be able to help AJ, and keep him
motivated throughout, ESPECIALLY if things aren’t working out the way they hope and
anticipate.
But the biggest problem for Joshua is that Usyk himself excels when it comes to making
mid-fight adjustments on the fly.
I do believe AJ will enter the rematch with a solid game plan, a well prepared good new
corner, and he will bring more heart and determination to the table this time around, even if it’s
ultimately to his own detriment.
I think AJ has a real chance at avenging his loss in this one, and I think this is a lot
closer to a 50-50 fight than many of his detractors believe.
Indeed, I am almost tempted to pick AJ in this one, but I am not going to do that.
Because at the end of the day, Usyk still holds two key advantages that I believe will
ultimately prove too difficult for AJ to consistently overcome more often than not.
One key advantage is his aforementioned ability to adapt during a fight and change his approach
when something isn’t working.
But the other key advantage Usyk holds in my estimation is that, plain and simple, his
footwork is far superior.
I think AJ will try to be more physical this time, and I believe he will have some success
on this front, but I don’t think it will be enough to slow Usyk down enough for AJ
to pull it off.
So for my official prediction, I am taking Oleksandr Usyk by 12 round decision, and I
believe this time things will be notably more competitive, even if Usyk does wind up managing
a late round stoppage, I think it will be notably more competitive for as long as it
lasts.
I’m inclined to believe it will go 12, so I like Usyk on points over 12.
But what the hell do I know?
I ain’t exactly Quasimodo over here.
But whatever happens, I am extremely fired-up for this one, and may the best man win on
that night.
Best of luck to both Usyk and AJ!
So who do you think will win?
Please share your thoughts in the comment section.
Thank you very much for watching everyone, I hope you enjoyed, and have a wonderful night.
This is Rummy’s Corner.
Oh right.
Notre Damus.
Nostradamus and Notre Dame.
It’s two different things completely.