On November 21st, 2013, Ukraine erupted in civil unrest. The massive demonstrations were sparked
by the decision of Ukraine's then-President, Viktor Yanukovych, to discard an agreement
with the European Union which would have seen Ukraine move towards eventually joining the EU.
Instead, President Yanukovych announced that he would seek closer ties with Russia, to the
surprise of no one as he was already considered a Russian puppet. What nobody expected was how the
Ukrainian people would react to Yanukovych trying to tie their future to Russia instead of Europe.
The protests soon turned violent, with the demand that the president and his entire cabinet step
down. Named one of the most corrupt governments in the world by Transparency International,
President Yanukovych had a long history of violence against his citizens and taking
bribes- specially from Russian backed sources. Eventually, President Yanukovych was forced to
flee the country, and the rebellion quickly installed a pro-European president in power.
However, that's when Ukraine's troubles would really start.
Finally believing themselves to be free of Russian influence, Ukraine
instead found itself fighting off a secession movement in the regions of Donbas and Crimea,
fueled by Russian separatists. When Ukranian troops moved to quell the rebellion, they
were surprised to find themselves in combat with Russian tanks, infantry, and even special forces.
For its part, Russia denied any involvement- despite the documenting of unmarked Russian
military vehicles carrying dead Russian soldiers back to Russia from Ukraine. President Putin
instead claimed that any Russians fighting in Ukraine were doing so of their own free will,
and that the government had no official role in the fighting there. Even more evidence,
including social media posts from Russian soldiers themselves,
dispelled any notion that Putin hadn't sent troops into Ukraine.
Outmatched by Russian firepower, Ukraine's troops suffered a catastrophic defeat and were
forced back, eventually all but ceding control of the disputed regions to pro-Russian forces. In
response, the world slammed Russia with crippling economic sanctions, and US President Barack Obama
ordered additional US forces to Europe in order to warn Putin from further aggression.
Since Putin's original invasion of Crimea however, things have changed dramatically in the world.
Russia is still under punishing economic sanctions, yet it's Russia's common people who are
suffering the effects, not Putin or his oligarch friends. Willing to have his people shoulder the
economic pain he himself is unaffected by, Putin has thus far not been deterred by sanctions.
Now the question on everyone's mind is, will Putin decide to fully invade Ukraine or not?
Perhaps nobody is more afraid of this than Ukrainians themselves,
especially after Putin announced that he would grant expedited Russian citizenship
to the inhabitants of Crimea. This is but one in several carefully planned moves by Putin to
legitimize Russia's claim to the region, as once it is full of legal Russian residents,
he'll have a better argument for supporting his currently illegal annexation of the
Crimean peninsula- which is unrecognized by both Ukraine and the rest of the world.
Even more worrying however is a recent documentary released in Russia this summer
where Putin himself makes the claim that several eastern European nations illegally took territory
with them that belonged to native Russia after the breakup of the Soviet Union. To anyone living east
of Germany, Putin's statement is tantamount to threatening the invasion of not just the Ukraine,
but any Russian neighbor. To a student of history, the current Russia-Ukraine
situation sounds suspiciously a lot like the pre-World War II Germany- Sudetenland debacle
that all but officially signaled the start of the second World War.
Would Russia really go for it and invade however?
Much like during Hitler's time, the west is showing some level of appeasement towards Putin's
claims on eastern Europe- only this time it's the United States who's doing the appeasement.
Despite claims of being tough on Russia, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly ignored
Russian actions in Ukraine, and shown little to no interest in how the Ukrainian crisis plays out.
With his gifting of Syria to Russia by ordering the pull out of US personnel,
now the world is wondering if President Trump would dare oppose Putin on the world stage.
If Russia wanted to use military force in Ukraine and annex the entire nation,
there is little that Europe could do to stop it on their own. Without American military power,
the EU simply couldn't field a large enough armed response to stop the Russian incursion,
let alone reverse it. While Europe has for decades known that the trans-Atlantic
alliance with the US was strong and that America could be relied upon,
that relationship has dramatically weakened over the last four years under President Trump,
leaving many to wonder if the US would respond at all to a Russian invasion.
To complicate matters even more, a recent revelation led to the discovery that President
Trump was aware of Russian bounties paid out by its government to insurgents who killed US
troops, yet the information did not stop him from campaigning for Russia to rejoin the G-8
after it was kicked out due to its invasion of Crimea. Despite the discovery by the CIA
of bounties as high as $100,000 for each dead American soldier
paid out by Russia's GRU, President Trump's pro-Russia campaigning signals
that the US will almost certainly not interfere with a Ukrainian invasion.
But would Russia really do it?
With the EU unable to stop Russia militarily, the most they could do is impose even more sanctions-
and yet Russia is already weathering pretty severe sanctions, so the economic impact at this point
would probably not be enough to stop Putin if he really wanted to invade. Further adding to
the risk of invasion is the fact that Putin himself is facing a variety of domestic troubles,
ranging from a poor economy to civil unrest as Putin sets himself up to
remain in power indefinitely. A 'rally around the flag' event such as a Ukrainian invasion
might be seen to Putin as a solution- even if temporary- to his domestic troubles.
Opposition in Ukraine would be stiff however, thanks to the thousands of anti-tank weapons
sold to Ukraine by the US. With little to no utility in fighting against the rebels in Crimea,
who don't operate tanks, these weapons are very clearly meant to take on Russian tanks
and armored vehicles. This would make a Ukrainian invasion a costly one for Russia,
no doubt factoring into Putin's plans for the region.
Ultimately Russia could invade Ukraine successfully and reestablish some of
the former Soviet Union glory that Putin so desperately wants to recreate, but its events
in America that will likely dictate if that happens or not more than events in Europe. With
President Trump showing no interest in countering any Russian moves around the world, if reelected
it's likely that Putin will see this as a green light to do as he wishes in Ukraine and elsewhere.
As Ukraine is not a NATO member, the best it could hope for would be an armed response from European
forces- but without US forces Europe is simply not strong enough on its own to stand up to Russia.
Now check out Can Russia Invade Europe, or watch this other video instead!