everything will be fine.
Amna: As the United States and
nato ramp up billions in
military aid, there are risks,
namely Russia's military
reaction.
We turn to John Manzano.
He had a career in the U.S.
Marine Corps and served as
senior positions in the nato
headquarters.
He is currently a professor at
the national defense university.
Welcome to the newshour.
Thank you for making the time.
The Russian invasion began on
February 24.
They failed to capture Kyiv
quickly, moved to strikes across
the country.
We are moving into two months
and a new phase of war.
What should we expect to see?
>> It shows the Russians, who
often perform poorly at the
beginning of military campaigns,
are able to learn lessons.
Instead of having five axes,
they have consolidated their
forces under the command of
general Devorah Nick of, a
ruthless commander and veteran
of the Syrian intervention by
Russia.
They have stabilized their
lines.
They have brought their forces
online in territory that is fit
for a and mechanized warfare.
They are not going to take the
risk they did early with small
units moving independently
across the country who are
subject to attack by Ukrainian
light forces.
Amna: Some folks say this will
look more like a World War II,
higher casualties.
Do you agree?
>> I think the Russians may be
will suffer fewer casualties
during this phase.
I'm sure there is direction from
high in the Russian command to
use firepower to their
advantage, so I think what the
Russians will do, like World War
II, is move methodically and
when they meet resistance, they
will use artillery and mortars
and close air support to
overwhelm the Ukrainians.
Amna: Let me ask about the U.S.
Military support.
Recent shipments include heavier
rapidly -- heavier weaponry.
Is the U.S. And our nato
countries providing everything
Ukraine needs to match Russia in
this new phase?
>> That's tough because what
they need and want are different
than what the United States and
other allies are willing to
provide.
The white house is playing this
very well.
They are carefully walking a
line where they are providing
aps to the Ukrainians so
they can defend themselves and
inflict maximum pain on the
Russian forces.
They don't want to cross that
line with Putin.
You mentioned his statements
today telling the United States
to think twice about providing
the Ukrainians with weapons.
The intercontinental ballistic
missile that Putin launched
signals a danger.
The white house I believe is
walking allies up to that line
carefully, but Putin is not a
rational actor so it is
difficult to determine where
that line ends.
Amna: If you look at the map,
you know weapons are going in
from the western part of the
country, but they have to make
their way across Ukraine to the
east.
What worries you about that
movement?
>> It's a long logistics line
and the Russians will seek to
interdict that line.
I am concerned they will strike
the logistics line and some
strikes will move close to the
border, especially with Poland.
It wouldn't take much to imagine
a missile or bomb from an
aircraft that goes errant and
lands in Polish territory.
This is a dangerous part of the
war with that equipment.
It's also going to be difficult
as the Russians suffered with
long lines of logistics, the
Ukrainians will suffer with long
lines of logistics.
Moving tens of thousands of
artillery rounds, or the fuel
required, that in itself is a
massive challenge.
Amna: Is there any concern about
those weapons as they move,
potentially falling into the
wrong hands?
>> This is a concern of mine,
that these shoulder fired
antiaircraft missiles and
antitank weapons systems, they
are extremely effective, very
lethal, and I'm sure the united
States has strong protocols to
track those weapons and prevent
them falling into the wrong
hands.
On the battlefield, it's
unpredictable.
I worry about Ukrainian unit
being overrun and weapons being
captured by Russians and ending
up somewhere else in the hands
of some warlord or terrorist.
It is a concern and I'm sure the
United States is doing
everything possible.
You have to remember who gave
the Buja hadid similar weapons
during the 1980's and that was
carefully controlled.
Amna: Thank you so much for your
time.