Putin's troubles are mounting at breakneck speed, that's the message from former CIA
chief of Russian operations Steve Hall.
And what comes next might break the Russian dictator.
Today we will explore Steve Hall’s predictions for what will happen in Ukraine, and see if
Putin is truly doomed.
It's almost impossible to turn on the news nowadays and not hear more reports about Ukraine
asking for additional ammunition.
Recently a sensationalist story about Ukraine running out of air defense missiles had many
believing that the end was nigh, the Russian air force would- finally- show up and rain
destruction from the skies, ending all Ukrainian resistance.
However, the truth was that Ukraine was simply stating that at current rate of consumption,
they would be out of missiles in a matter of months, not imminently.
Likewise, Ukraine has famously been running into supply shortages of shells for its artillery,
as well as other more specialized kit like GMLRS rockets for its HIMARS.
But what might surprise you is that Russia is having the exact same problems- if not
worse.
Russia's ammunition problems are becoming just as acute as Ukraine’s, but unlike Ukraine
Russia does not have the advantage of a global coalition of allies and partners willing to
shoulder the burden of resupplying it.
Russia's global coalition instead consists of Iran, reportedly South Africa and China
on the downlow.
The advantage that Russia has had over Ukraine however was a massive stockpile from the Cold
War when everyone was hoarding ammo in anticipation of armageddon.
But that stockpile is running dangerously low.
A few months ago, Ukraine announced that for the first time since the start of the war,
it had achieved artillery parity with Russia on occasion.
Typically Russia fired 20 times the shells that Ukraine fired back, but ammo shortages
brought the two to a more even playing field.
HIMARS strikes and special forces sabotage behind enemy lines helped exasperate Russia's
ammo problems, bringing the average exchange rate to six to one.
This dramatic drop in artillery had a direct effect on Russia's ability to conduct offensive
operations, because Russia has a garbage army that relies on blasting everything in front
of it to oblivion from far away before moving their garbage army forward to take ground.
Unsurprisingly, when Russia is no longer able to deliver overwhelming amounts of artillery
at long range and its ground forces have to actually fight, the results aren't pretty.
But that's to be expected of an army that undergoes very little real training and is
mostly made up of conscripts, with the few professional soldiers it does have more interested
in corruption and lining their own pockets than actually soldiering.
Russia's largest gains in the time after Ukraine's fall offensive where at the hands of the Wagner
Group, Yevegeny Prigozhin's private army that Putin contracted out to fight in Ukraine.
Unlike the rest of the Russian military, Wagner is better equipped and better trained- but
their best war-winning strategy was the use of prisoners recruited from Russian detention
centers who were promised their freedom if they survived a term of fighting in Ukraine.
Neither Prigozhin nor Putin had any intention of allowing the majority of these prisoners
back into society after being incarcerate, and thus Prigozhin used them in human wave
attacks that were very successful in Bakhmut.
Under threat of being shot if they retreated, Wagner unleashed hundreds of armed prisoners
to assault blindly into Ukrainian positions.
Once the Ukrainians opened up and thus revealed their defenses, Wager's regular, non-prisoner
forces would mount direct assaults.
The tactic was brilliantly effective, if like most Russians you have little to no regard
for human life other than your own.
Ukraine was steadily pushed back under the sheer weight of manpower the Russians were
willing to sacrifice, only to then use well trained and equipped forces to assault where
weak points emerged or were discovered.
It's not entirely unlike Russia's strategy during the great sieges of its cities during
World War II.
Wagner's successes were not just fueled by the sacrifice of prisoners though, as it was
heavily reliant on the Russian ministry of defense for supplies and equipment.
While Wagner has over the years purchased a significant amount of its own equipment,
including attack helicopters and artillery, inside of Ukraine the group has been extremely
reliant on the Russian military for resupply.
And this has been Prigozhin's achille's heel, and might end up costing Russia the battle
for Bakhmut after ten months of fighting- and it all comes down to the way Russia does
politics.
Well, Putin specifically.
Like any good dictator, Putin ensures that none of his underlings are too successful,
as that might draw people under their banner.
If that were to happen, then that underling might gain enough political capital and popular
support to usurp Putin's throne.
Or this being Russia, just straight up murder him.
Thus Putin ensures that his government is constantly at odds with itself, with advisors
and those who hold senior positions in his government and military all actively working
against each other.
This is where Prigozhin enters the chat, because the man once known as Putin's chef has seen
a meteoric rise to become one of Putin's bestest and goodest of boys.
Despite private military companies being against the law in Russia, Putin allowed Prigozhin
to fund the establishment of Wagner- under one condition: it would in all but name serve
as an extension of Putin's, not Russia's, power.
Thus Wagner Group intervened all over Africa and the middle east, greatly expanding Russian
influence and enriching Russian businesses while committing a laundry list of atrocities
and human rights abuses that would rival the Russian military's own.
Wagner's successes quickly shot Prigozhin up the ranks of Putin's personal goodest and
bestest boys, until eventually Prigozhin was one of the very goodest and very bestest of
all boys.
And that didn't sit well with Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu, because a man with
Prigozhin's ambitions and military successes who also owned his own private army wouldn't
be content being minister of agriculture or silly walks.
Prigozhin was gunning for Shoigu's job, and Shoigu was doing a bad job of showing why
he should get to keep it.
Under his leadership, the Russian military had become the number one supplier of military
aid to Ukraine as it broke and ran time and again- and we're not kidding about this.
While the west has pledged around 100 tanks, Russia has abandoned an estimated five hundred
to be captured by Ukraine.
That's on top of sophisticated air defense systems, vast amounts of ammunition, and a
whole lot of very expired rations.
To say that this was a real bad look for Shoigu is an understatement, and many have wondered
why Putin has fired multiple Russian generals, but never his top goodest military boy.
The truth may be that Putin keeps Shoigu in charge of the military because without Putin,
Shoigu is nothing.
Like Prigozhin, Shoigu is a complete outsider to Russian power politics, having ascended
the ranks and coming from a nothing background.
This means Shoigu has very few allies in the halls of Russian power, and thus cannot be
a threat to Putin.
But Shoigu was most certainly feeling the heat as Prigozhin put the Russian military
on blast over and over again over its failures, even while touting the victories of Wagner
group.
It would be easy for Putin to replace one man that Kremlin elitists don't particularly
care for with a completely different one, and still remain secure knowing whoever was
running his military would never have the political capital to challenge him.
Eventually, Shoigu struck back.
First he took credit for Soledar, a salt mining town in east Ukraine that by all accounts,
Wagner did most of the fighting for.
An angered Prigozhin took to social media to refute the ministry of defense claims that
it had been the Russian army who took the town.
But Shoigu wasn't done, and just as Wagner was on the eve of its greatest success in
Bakhmut- with only 2 kilometers left to take the entirety of the town- Shoigu pulled the
plug of supplies.
Now Russia has been having legitimate supply issues, which Ukraine has tried to alleviate
by donating multiple volleys of HIMARS rockets directly to Russian supply depots.
But by all accounts, Shoigu has purposefully manipulated supply chains to keep Wagner on
a very tight leash in Bakhmut, and then at the start of May, yanked the leash hard enough
to keep Wagner from succeeding.
Prigozhin responded by taking to social media to rant like a 14 year old who just lost a
ranked Call of Duty match.
He threatened to pull Wagner forces out of Bakhmut altogether and hand them over to the
Russian military, which would have been a massive disaster and thrown the door wide
open for Ukraine to launch a devastating counterattack.
Shoigu and the ministry of defense claimed that they were not manipulating supplies on
purpose, and that Wagner was receiving everything it was allotted.
Then Prigozhin upped the stakes by declaring his forces would pull out of Bakhmut on May
10th.
Suddenly the supplies started flowing again, and Prigozhin recanted.
However, just two days later Prigozhin was once more complaining that his forces were
being denied supplies.
So was Shoigu really preventing Wagner from winning in Bakhmut?
Or are Russia's supply problems that severe?
First, Russia's supply problems are definitely that severe.
Russian guns which used to fire nearly around the clock are now silent for long stretches
of time.
Ukrainian front line forces have had significantly more breathing room, as evidenced by recent
assaults across the Dnipro river in the Kherson region and elsewhere- operations that would
have been met with immediate disaster due to overwhelming Russian firepower.
But Shoigu is without a doubt, making a play in Bakhmut to cut Prigozhin's knees out from
under him.
Or at least he tried to.
Wagner has been responsible for the main assault on Bakhmut itself, while its flanks were secured
by the Russian army.
The Russian army on city’s flanks has been attempting to cut off Bakhmut for months now,
with the goal of reaching the two major supply routes going in and out to Ukrainian positions.
As Wagner drew closer to its complete capture of the city and Ukrainian forces were pushed
further into the outskirts, the flank attacks increased in tempo- with up to 53 attacks
in one day reported across one stretch of highway.
The fighting raged even as Wagner ran out of ammo, making it clear that Shoigu was hoping
the Russian army could close the encirclement and claim victory, while Wagner was forced
to sit on its hands for a lack of ammunition.
But Ukraine got a say in all of this, and it chose violence.
While the initial flank attacks were successful, Ukraine's emergency deployment of special
forces held in reserve for the spring offensive stopped the Russian army's offensive- and
then started to push back.
With Wagner unable to launch attacks against Ukraine's center, it freed up manpower to
reinforce the flanks and begin to assault in a counterattack that continues to today.
In fact, Prigozhin has recently taken to social media once more to berate the Russian forces
which have been slowly but steadily ceding ground to Ukrainian attacks- and potentially
leaving Wagner's flanks completely exposed.
Prigozhin's latest attacks against the Russian military have bordered on outright sedition.
He has claimed that Russian army forces have broken and ran at first contact with the Ukrainians,
and states that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is in full swing.
However, Ukrainian soldiers on the ground confirmed to CNN in an interview that the
forces which were cutting and running were actually Wagner troops, while Russian regular
army units were holding their ground until they were defeated.
And as far as the coming counter-attack, there is no sign yet that Ukraine has launched its
full offensive, with actions around Bakhmut being part of the regular ebb and flow of
the ongoing 10 month battle.
Prigozhin didn't stop there though, as in an incredibly rare event, he seemed to lash
out directly at Putin.
In one of his broadcasts, Prigozhin appeared to vent frustrations aimed squarely at Putin.
As his troops once more ran out of ammunition and the Bakhmut flanks came under attack,
Prigozhin stated, “And the happy grandfather thinks that he is good.
If he turns out to be right then may God grant everyone health.
But what will the country do, our children, grandchildren who are the future of Russia,
and how can we win this war if- by chance and I'm just speculating here- it turns out
that this grandfather is a complete shithead?.”
Putin is frequently referred to as the grandfather by Russian military and political leadership,
and Prigozhin's statement seems to be taking aim directly at Putin in what would be the
most public and radical critique of Putin by any senior official.
Prigozhin was quick to walk the comment back when interviewed by press, giving multiple
figures in the Russian ministry of defense whom he states “could be” the grandfather
he was referring to, while never mentioning Putin.
However, in all likelihood this is a sign of even Prigozhin's growing frustrations,
which he is in turn now venting directly onto the Russian military leadership.
And this is one of Putin's biggest headaches, though it's doubtful if he even sees it as
such.
With Shoigu and Prigozhin actively sabotaging each other, the Russian offensive in Bakhmut
is coming apart at the seams- right when it's at the cusp of complete victory.
A victory which we have to remind you is completely worthless, as Bakhmut is utterly strategically
unimportant- save as an ideological win for Russia.
The Bakhmut drama is playing out all over the war effort though, as different factions
within the Russian army all vie to undermine each other and secure their own glory and
political wins.
This chaos is by Putin's own design though, as he works to ensure that no one faction-
from Chechnya to Wagner to the Russian military- becomes powerful enough to challenge him directly.
Even as Russians die by the droves because of it, Putin's own future is assured.
Now Putin's troubles have increased once more- and for once it's not because of his own forces.
Ukraine has been begging for long range precision weapons since the war began, but the west
has steadfastly refused.
It took months to get HIMARS to Ukraine, giving it the ability to target several dozen miles
behind the front lines.
But Russia responded by simply moving its command posts and supply depots further back
and out of range.
This had an immediate impact on its ability to operate, but did not completely disrupt
its efforts the way long range precision weapons would.
Since then the US has categorically declined to supply Ukraine with ATACMS, which would
triple the range of HIMARS' GMLRS rockets and could threaten Russian targets all the
way in Crimea.
The US may be right in its denial, as ATACMS may be in very high demand in case of war
in the Pacific against China.
But after over a year of waiting, the UK has once more taken the lead and provided Ukraine
with the Storm Shadow cruise missile.
Originally developed in the 90s, the Storm Shadow missile has a degree of stealth much
like the US' Long Range Anti-Ship Missile.
This makes it a significant problem for Russian air defenses, and with a range over double
of HIMARS, Ukraine will finally have the tool it needs to strike at sensitive Russian targets
deep behind the front.
The Storm Shadow missile can be fired from either the ground, or from the air where it
will achieve its maximum range.
It's not known if the missile is compatible with Ukraine's Soviet planes, but the UK expressed
confidence that Ukraine would be able to make quote- full use- of the missile.
It's also unknown just how many of the missiles the UK has donated, though UK defense minister
Ben Wallace assured that at least some Storm Shadows are already inside Ukraine, with more
on their way.
With over 900 of the missiles in its inventory, the UK has plenty to spare- especially as
it is now seeking to modernize the Storm Shadow and field a new, more capable variant.
This means that there's a pressing need to get rid of the existing stockpile, so Ukraine
may find itself with hundreds of Storm Shadow missiles if UK rearmament efforts produce
a more capable evolution and begins to mass produce it.
Ukraine has promised not to strike inside the Russian Federation itself, because while
Russia is allowed to strike Ukrainian targets with impunity, nobody in the west wants to
risk giving Putin a frowny face.
Once more, Putin's crazy rants about nuclear weapons are paying dividends, as the west
collectively browns its pants in anticipation of the imaginary nuclear Armageddon Putin
may unleash if military bases in Russia start blowing up.
In response, Ukraine has been establishing its own long range cruise missile program
literally from backyard workshops across the country.
The fact of the matter is that Ukraine can't hope to win this war without striking at the
Russian bases supplying the war effort, and until it does even if it beats Russian forces
all the way back to its borders, Russia will simply launch long range attacks into Ukraine
while massing for a fresh assault.
But Putin's final headache is coming from within.
On May 3rd, two drones were apparently used to launch an attack on the Kremlin.
One was intercepted, with Russia claiming it also intercepted the second which instead
simply appeared to detonate an explosive charge next to the Kremlin's flag pole.
Russia immediately blamed Ukraine, which categorically denied the attack.
According to Russian sources, the drone attack was an attempt to assassinate Vladimir Putin
directly- which if true would mean that Ukraine came a lot closer to decapitating Russia's
leadership than the dozens of Spetsnatz Russia deployed at the start of the war to kill Zelensky
did.
However, the drone's tiny explosive charge would've been unlikely to kill Putin, unless
he coincidentally chose that night to climb to the roof of the Kremlin to recreate his
favorite scene from King Kong.
The blame then shifted to the US, which Russia claimed had given the order for Ukraine to
attack the Kremlin with drones.
However, as one commentator noted- if the US had been behind the attack, the Kremlin
would be a crater.
Also it simply doesn't make sense- the US has been reluctant to provide any long range
weapons to Ukraine exactly because of its fear that Ukraine would use them to launch
attacks into Russia.
Putin's nuclear sabre rattling worked- everyone in the west has the Hershey squirts at the
thought of quote- escalation.
It's utterly unthinkable then that the US would simply give the green light for Ukraine
to assassinate a flag pole.
Instead, many now believe that the drone attack represents an internal threat- and a for real
one this time.
Putin is most likely the master of false flag attacks, though in truth he's simply borrowing
a favorite tactic from the Russian playbook, because Russians have no problem killing Russians
to advance political goals.
A false flag attack on their own border guards preempted the invasion of Finland in World
War II, and Putin coordinated a series of false flag terrorist attacks to legitimize
himself as president and launch a hilariously disastrous invasion of Chechnya where Russian
tank forces got their teeth kicked in by a bunch of rebels with exactly zero tanks.
But the attack on the Kremlin just might be the real deal, and the call may be coming
from inside the house.
Since the war began Russian military recruiting offices have had a bad habit of spontaneously
catching fire.
As the war dragged on, it was now warehouses, shopping malls, railroad tracks and even fuel
facilities that were now either going up in flames or exploding.
Without a doubt, a number of these have been the work of Ukrainian sabotage operatives,
as they have followed almost to the letter old Soviet sabotage doctrine that would have
been put into effect in case of war against NATO.
Russia has apparently forgotten that Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union, and while
it forgot its Cold War training, Ukraine apparently did not.
However, a growing Russian resistance movement has been gaining steam even as hundreds of
thousands of men are drafted and sent to war.
On January 3rd and 4th, partisan attacks on railroads halted the movement of men and supplies
along the trans-siberial rail network- all going to Ukraine.
This would be the sixth case in just the first few days of the new year of partisan activity.
In the year prior, multiple locomotives were destroyed, and there were 40 confirmed cases
of sabotage of Russian rail infrastructure.
The fact that this activity increased significantly after the announcement of Putin's partial
mobilization implies heavily that this is a true Russian partisan movement, and not
more Ukrainian sabotage.
Currently, the resistance movement is tiny, but the number of attacks seem to be increasing
over time.
This could turn into a massive headache for Putin, especially as many now state that Russia
cannot win in Ukraine without a full mobilization.
But Putin has likely taken the temperature inside Russia itself, and knows that a general
mobilization could be the final straw that breaks the camel's back.
Russians love themselves a good dictator, but Putin broke the social contract upheld
in Russia for decades: you can be all the dictator you want to be, as long as you don't
actively make life worse for Russian citizens.
Now go check out What Would Happen If Russia And NATO Went To War Day By Day, or click
this other video instead.