[CC may contain inaccuracies] Your first reaction to the numbers. Well clearly I think that show helped to lift market sentiments
and as the we together with the streets that have been seen had another round sell such China gross downgrade in the past
several weeks. So this is certainly good news. We saw most of the numbers beating expectation.
Can China still maintain that V shaped recovery. We have the likes of Goldman recently saying that you know what. In 2022
we're looking at sub 5 percent. We actually also lowered our money money to forecast to four
point seven percent. Really based on a number of considerations. First you said the housing market the NIKKEI continue to slow.
We saw a floating house price and the further weakening home demand especially amid a looming property tax. Second just the
call of a zero tolerance policy the policy likely to stay until probably for the party's 20s party Congress. And also I think
the government's so green commitment likely to become more binding and facing more pressures to achieve this energy control
targets which I think would imply rose to be average to less than 6 percent to two year two year average.
Dan I'm looking at the fixed asset investment year today six point one percent. That was the slight miss here and in this
batch of data. Also property investment for year to date seven point two percent are also a miss in a moderation from from the
month before. Is this mostly weighed down by the property woes that we're seeing among developers right now.
Certainly. I think the government's earlier tightening policy to reign. The markets have already started to bite. In recent
months as we see falling home price contracting home sales and also that developers because of this contingent effects from the
aggregate rents crisis and have been seeing with some more funding pressures and also a reluctance to a bit lenders and
also cutting in the investments. So I think this situation is still unfolding.
Given that we're seeing these home prices as well as second month where where new home prices were on the decline. Jan I'm
just wondering the consensus growth for this year is still eight point two percent. Is that still achievable for China this year.
We think he's quite challenging for China to achieve 8 percent. Our forecast is seven point eight. That he said in the latest
upside surprise. In particularly consumption and also industrial production which I think partially boosted by the upside in
export growth shall help to lend some support to China's gross recovery. That being said as I mentioned earlier the downward
pressures to rose is mounting and the government as have we observing in recent weeks have also started to announce more
fine tuning policies on the property sector. When you take a look at the property sector 25 percent of GDP
like you said there's still so much uncertainty. Could that trickle down to the wider economy.
Actually in our view the impact of this floating home price and really would impact real estate investment and also spill over
to the upstream downstream sectors. But that being said we have long take a view that the wealth effect in China is quite
ambiguous. And you've not seen the Chinese cost was significantly boosted to consumption on the back of surging home
prices. In fact most of the economists including us agree that the surging house price has been crowding out Chinese
consumption. So I think we have to look at the impact of the housing slowdown of the Americas.
Looking at it from a broader angle and DEA and not similar at say the Chase USA or Hong Kong where well as new effects have
been quite significant. Again we just got that BBC here rolling over that one trillion
renminbi. Emma MF what do you make of that. Is that a positive signal to you that that they're staying the course or is this
means as is this triple our cut. The chance of that is slowly slowly diminishing now.
Yeah I think they're staying course and also they've hinted the less likely hood and low probability for Chip. Cause I think
a few weeks ago in their press briefing and in the way we can see that they are you issuing accommodative policy stands and
sufficient liquidity and mostly from rolling over and now as are open market operations rather than resorting to a trip wire cuts
and also the latest in the green financing tools and also in the way I I do a scene goes to reduce the probability for a
near-term rate cuts especially I think in the face of global speculation concern and also the possibly faster effect tapering
earlier than expected by Tipper. Jan private led investment has gone ahead of public sector
spending. Do you see that helping to boost the economy helping to support the economy going forward.
Sorry chaos is a question again. Private led investment that seems to be leading ahead of public
sector investment. Do you see that as supporting the economy going forward.
Clearly I think partly the government's hawkish policy on the property sector reflects their willingness to transform the
economic structure and to encourage more manufacture high end manufacturing investments and also the property investments on
the back of a continued distress in Chinese exports and strong external demand and the shower help to support investment growth
down the road especially when we have a very sluggish infrastructure investment and also a slowing housing investment.