An asteroid is headed straight toward Earth.
Initially, scientists thought it would miss us,
but they've made
some serious miscalculations.
And now, it's headed right toward
our giant blue marble.
What happens next?
This is WHAT IF,
and here's what would happen
Now, this sounds like a fun hypothetical,
but an asteroid coming for Earth,
it’s no laughing matter.
It could happen.
Scientists had thought
that asteroid 99942,
also known as Apophis,
might hit Earth
by the year 2029.
Apophis was discovered in 2004,
and scientists
have been closely monitoring it ever since.
At one point, research suggested that
the asteroid had a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth.
Yes, scary, I know
but since then,
new calculations predict that
the asteroid will whiz by Earth
at a distance of 30,000 km (18,641 mi).
Now, considering that
the Moon is 380,000 km (23,6121 mi) away,
this asteroid will be incredibly close.
But at least it won't be hitting us.
Now, of course,
calculations can be wrong.
Let's say that
in this case, they are.
and Apophis is coming right toward Earth,
way ahead of schedule.
The asteroid is going to hit us
this year.
Ok, let's see what we're dealing with.
Apophis is 340 m (1,115 ft) in diameter.
For reference,
that's taller than the Eiffel Tower.
But is it the worst asteroid Earth has ever seen?
Luckily for us,
it's not even close.
The Chicxulub asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs
was estimated to be
10 to 15 km (6.2 to 9.3 mi) wide.
So now, we're dealing with Chicxulub's little brother.
So what does that mean for us?
Will humans go extinct from this impact?
Well, more on that in a bit.
But first, let's look at
whether we have any chance
of stopping this asteroid.
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Ok, the first step would be identifying the asteroid,
which we've already done.
We know how big Apophis is
and that it's moving at about 30 km/s (18 mi/s).
Now, it's about the defense measures,
we could use.
There's a couple
that are being looked into right now.
One of them being the kinetic impactor.
This involves sending a spacecraft
to collide with the asteroid.
All in hopes of changing its velocity and trajectory.
NASA has run some successful tests using this method,
so that's an option.
Next would be
what's known as a gravity tractor.
A large spacecraft would fly
next to the asteroid.
Over time,
its gravitational pull would eventually
change the asteroid's path.
Laser ablation is next on the list of options.
Yes, special lasers could be used to
vaporize parts of the asteroid's surface.
This wouldn't destroy the asteroid,
but it could alter its direction
as well as the size
and impact of it.
And last but definitely not least is
is the final nuclear option.
Yeah, that's right.
As a final resort,
we could nuke Apophis.
And with the asteroid's massive size,
as well as the lack of time
we have before it hits us.
This might be the only option.
But don't be too quick to hit that red button.
Nuking an asteroid can have
some serious downsides.
It could split the asteroid up,
causing it to fragment.
Then, you'd have dozens more minor asteroids
and meteors coming toward Earth,
making the impact
even more devastating.
And these wouldn't be
just regular asteroids, either.
Because of the nuke,
they'd be radioactive.
This would mean that
significant parts of the world
would not only be impacted
with asteroids and meteors,
but they'd also experience radiation levels
only seen during nuclear warfare.
So, what's the best option here?
Well, it's tough to decide;
let me think about this for a second.
Oh, well, it’s too late now.
We took too long deciding what to do,
and now the Apophis will be here any second.
Brace yourselves.
You wouldn't get a good look
at the asteroid impact,
and that's because it landed somewhere
in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
This is the most probable spot
an asteroid would land,
considering the Earth's surface is mostly water.
So you might not see the impact,
but you'd definitely notice it.
Once the asteroid hits our planet,
it'd be as devastating
as several thousand nuclear bombs going off,
just with a lot less radiation.
It would make a crater
at the bottom of the ocean as big
as a kilometer wide.
And what happens next would be even more devastating.
The massive impact would create
giant tsunamis
that would rage worldwide.
Several hours after the asteroid touches down,
cities along the Pacific coast
would feel Apophis' impact.
The tsunamis would travel across
the Pacific Ocean at jetliner speeds.
Places in North and South America,
like California, Peru, and Chile,
would face towering waves.
Due to the energy caused by the asteroid,
it would likely cause waves
taller than 30 m (100 ft).
Waves as big as this
are responsible for one of the most devastating tsunamis ever.
In 2004, Southeast Asia
experienced a tsunami
that generated
waves over 30 m (100 ft) tall,
killing over 230,000 people.
But instead of waves
like these reaching just a few countries,
this would be a complete global catastrophe.
Not only would the Americas experience these tsunamis,
but so would Japan, Australia,
and the Philippines.
These places would all be devastated
by the impact.
Tsunamis like these
would likely destroy millions of lives.
So that's what would happen
if an asteroid hit the ocean,
but what if it made impact on land?
Well, to start,
the impact crater would be much more significant.
We know that an asteroid's impact crater
can be anywhere from 10 to 20 times
the size of the asteroid itself.
And now there isn't any water to soften the blow.
So, the diameter of the crater
could be as large as 7 km (4.3 mi)
with a depth of over 1 km (0.6 mi).
Depending on where it lands,
this crater could be big enough
to devastate entire cities.
The initial impact
would send a massive shockwave
that spreads for hundreds of kilometers.
This could destroy entire buildings
and seriously damage infrastructure.
It would throw tons of dust
and debris
into the atmosphere.
It could get so bad that it could
cause an impact winter.
This would be caused
by a dust cloud temporarily blocking the Sun,
causing crops
and vegetation to die out,
which creates
even more casualties.
Something like this
could last weeks or months
and be an overall environmental catastrophe.
This entire event, during and after,
could cause millions of people to be killed,
depending on where the asteroid lands.
And we can only hope that
an asteroid collision like this
would land as far away from people as possible.
But for the good news,
if Apophis did somehow make an impact,
it wouldn't cause a mass extinction
like the Chicxulub asteroid
did for the dinosaurs.
The event would be incredibly traumatic
and have lots of casualties,
but humanity as a whole
would live to see another day.
Ok, now that we've survived that,
what happens afterward?
What does the future of humanity look like?
Well, that sounds like a story
for another WHAT IF.