“The first thing to say is that he is not for sale," David Moyes said in April 2022,
when asked about the prospect of Declan Rice leaving West Ham United.
"If you are interested, well… One hundred (million pounds)
was cheap last summer. One hundred and fifty just now would be minimum but he is not for sale.”
£150m for Declan Rice? That sounds like a lot of money,
so Tifo dug-in to take a look at what his actual value might be.
As we all know, the answer to what a player is worth is
whatever another club is willing to pay. If Declan Rice were to leave West Ham,
he would have a different value depending on which team was interested in signing him,
determined by an aggregate of their relative positional needs and their resources.
When he departs is also important. As of 2022, Rice has two years left on a contract that’s
due to run until 2024, but with West Ham holding the option to extend it for a further 12 months.
At the moment, then, contract length isn’t a factor and yet it could become so. In
other words: time will tell. In addition to which, Moyes’ quoted figure of £150m
is – quite understandably – intended to deter interested parties. We know - but that’s no fun.
So, what is his market value as an estimate,
in the calm days before the transfer window opens again?
First of all, for context, if a club were to pay £150m for Declan Rice, it would make him
the second most expensive player of all time. It would still be some way short of the £199m
Paris-Saint Germain paid to activate Neymar’s Barcelona release clause, but it would be a
bigger fee than those commanded by Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Joao Felix or Philippe Coutinho.
It's not very realistic. In addition to which, the current list of the most expensive transfers
completed is hopelessly skewed towards attacking players, most often goalscorers.
Among the top-25, for instance, only four – Harry Maguire, Virgil van Dijk, Lucas Hernandez
and Matthijs de Ligt – are central-defenders, and only two, Frenkie De Jong and Paul Pogba,
are midfielders who don’t produce category-leading numbers of goals or assists.
Nevertheless, that provides a rough range of value. Manchester United paid £94.5m for Paul
Pogba in 2016, while Frenkie De Jong left Ajax for Barcelona for £77.4m in the summer of 2019.
And there are some other factors to consider: while that Pogba valuation is now six years old,
it was inflated by the player’s commercial worth and by Manchester United’s intention to use him
at the forefront of their marketing activity. Declan Rice would not be an equivalent asset.
Frenkie de Jong was not a commercial asset, either, but he was very young when
he moved – just 22 – and he had just enjoyed a highly successful season in the Champions League,
reaching the semi-finals with Ajax. The fee Barcelona paid was a recognition
of both the player he was, the one he was likely to develop into and,
to a lesser extent but in a way that made such a big fee politically easier,
what he represented. The relationship between Ajax and Barcelona and the Cruyffian ideals
which guide the club meant that in De Jong, Barca were really purchasing a strand of original DNA.
Declan Rice’s value isn’t as abstract. He is still just 23,
though, and – like de Jong – the theory of what he might become helps inflate his value.
It’s important to note the difference between the player he is for his country
and the role he plays for his club. England’s Rice is more static and more conservative.
West Ham’s Rice has a more talismanic quality – and a more dynamic, orchestrating one.
According to FBref.com, he’s one of the foremost progressive carriers from midfield in the game.
His 6.9 progressive carries per 90 is good enough for the 96th percentile – Manchester
City’s Bernardo Silva tops that list – and his 2.57 carries into the final third per 90
also place him in the 96th percentile of a list led by Chelsea’s Matteo Kovacic.
In addition to which, Rice is also in the 90th percentile or above
for crosses into the penalty area, medium and short-range pass accuracy,
interceptions and % of passes successfully received,
with the latter an interesting way of roughly measuring availability in a deep-midfielder.
From the perspective of influence and breadth of abilities – if not personality
and profile - it’s not unreasonable, then, to value Declan Rice close to that De
Jong/Pogba range. The CIES Football Observatory currently prices him between £58m and £74m, while
Transfermarkt.co.uk estimates his market value at £67.5m. To create a margin for error, let’s
call that £60m to £80m, with the actual price determined by a combination of the following.
Which club wants to sign him – with the expectation that
an English club would pay a British player premium
How many clubs want to sign him would also be important. While
the fabled auction between big sides tends really to favour what the player can earn,
it wouldn’t hurt West Ham were several sides of similar means to chase him.
An understated influence might also be West Ham’s ability to negotiate a large transfer.
The current ownership’s record sale was the £26m that took Dimitri Payet to Marseille
and this is the first time in a generation that the club has produced a player of such reputation;
adapting to big club economics will be a factor.
And that works the other way, too. Elite clubs don’t have equal abilities in the market,
despite their comparable resources and negotiating abilities vary from club to club.
Naturally, West Ham’s own negotiating position will also be a determining factor.
2021-22 could yet finish with a Europa League win and a qualification for the Champions League.
Failing that, league finish and resulting continental revenue will determine
just how much they’re able to dig their heels in, or how effective they are
at convincing the player that he can realise his ambition without moving.