Aeroflot was two years into an eight-year-long plan to reshape itself as a world-leading carrier.
However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to severe economic sanctions,
cutting airlines off from any aviation products or services. Indeed, a portion of Aeroflot’s
own collection of aircraft is leased and was previously registered in countries like Bermuda.
So how does international action against Russia
affect this SkyTeam member’s fleet? Let’s take a look…
Aeroflot's fleet has become more and more westernized in the last two decades
as it became a mainstream global carrier.
Since 2000, and particularly in the first decade of the 21st century, the number of Russian
aircraft in Aeroflot's fleet has been in decline. As seen in this 2021 graph from ch-aviation.com,
the carrier's Russian-built fleet was just a third of what its size was in 2000.
It isn't just the number of individual Russian-built aircraft that has dropped, but
also the variety of Russian designs in Aeroflot's fleet. At the turn of the century, the Russian
flag carrier flew jetliners from both Ilyushin (Il-62, 86, 96) and Tupolev (Tu-134, 154, 204).
However, slowly but surely, these were phased out. The Tu-154 lasted the longest, until 2016.
Interestingly, since 2011, you can see that the number of Russian aircraft in Aeroflot's fleet
has slowly been on the rise. This is thanks to the increasing prevalence of the Sukhoi Superjet 100,
which began flying for the airline in 2011.
This transformation coincided with the end of Soviet-era passenger planes,
with only a few remaining in service today.
By the end of this year, there was to be no Russian planes in Aeroflot's fleet
under the 30/30 plan- with SSJ100 jets being transferred to subsidiaries such as Rossiya.
However, due to recent events, this could all change…
So, before we look at the airline's future,
let's take a look at the planes Aeroflot currently operates as of late March 2022.
The carrier has a fleet of about 180 aircraft, featuring a mix of Airbus and Boeing jets,
along with a few Sukhoi Superjets. For Boeing aircraft there are:
37 737-800s, averaging about 6 years, and 22 777-300ERs also averaging just over 6 years
For Airbus, we have… 52 Airbus A320-200s,
which have an average age of nearly 7 years. 32 A321-200s averaging just over 6 years,
Seven relatively new A350-900s which average just over one year,
12 A330-300s which are all around 10 years, Six A320neos which average 6 years,
And Three A321neos which are all about 1 year old. When it comes to Russian-built aircraft,
Aeroflot has 9 Sukhoi Superjet 100s which have an average age of 8 years.
These numbers appear to be changing by the day with some jets moving to Aeroflot subsidiaries.
Thus these figures may even be different by the time you watch this video.
Additionally, a large portion of this fleet is listed as parked and
inactive- something we’ll discuss further in this video.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, countries all over the world have imposed heavy economic sanctions.
Aeroflot has been in disaster management ever since, being forced to shut down routes
due to loss of overflight rights and eventually canceling all but one international destination.
That one destination is Minsk, in Belarus. However, the biggest risk of Aeroflot is the one
to its fleet. Data from ch-aviation shows that nearly all of the airline's planes are leased,
meaning they could be at risk of termination or seizure. In recent weeks, lessors have made
the decision to fly back planes being used by Russian carriers or seize them wherever
possible. This doesn't apply to homegrown lessors or those from allied companies, but western firms
and big names like AerCap and GECAS are all looking to exit Russia as soon as possible.
At the time of this video’s production, Aeroflot has already lost three jets due to
international seizures outside of Russia. All three seizures appear to have taken
place on the same day in late February. On February 27th, the Airbus A320-200
registered VP-BAC was flying from Moscow to Dusseldorf when it was diverted to Amsterdam.
The aircraft, nicknamed L. Tolstoy, has remained at the airport in storage since.
Also taking place on February 27th, the Airbus A321-200 registered VP-BOE,
was due to fly from Geneva back to Moscow. While the flight plan changed several times,
it appears that the aircraft never left Geneva and has been there since late February.
Finally, the A320-200 registered as VP-BET was seized in Munich. The jet had flown there from
St Petersburg on February 27th as flight SU2826. The aircraft has been in Germany since that time.
When it comes to Aeroflot’s flagship Airbus A350s, the entirety of this subfleet is listed as parked.
At one point, ch-aviation noted that one of the aircraft in the airline’s possession
was listed as active. Registered VP-BXP, had been flying regularly
between Moscow and Sochi up until March 9th. Data shows that the airline ordered a total of 22
A350s- but of course, as this conflict drags on and sanctions continue, the delivery of
the remaining jets is fairly uncertain. Indeed, a few A350s that were ready or
near-ready to be delivered to the airline, A350 MSNs 471, 457 and 463 are sitting in
storage at Châteauroux-Centre Airport (CHR). Quite interestingly, one Airbus A350, MSN 466,
narrowly made it to Russia before sanctions were imposed. The aircraft was delivered from
Toulouse to Moscow on February 24th, the day of the invasion into Ukraine.
In early March, FlightGlobal reported that Lufthansa was on the hunt for additional
widebodies. While there has been some speculation that the carrier is eyeing
Aeroflot’s undelivered A350s, nothing has yet to be confirmed. Still, this would appear to
be a good fit for the German airline as it already operates a fleet of 20 A350s.
You may have noticed that we just referred to Aeroflot’s A350s using Manufacturer Serial Numbers
(MSNs) rather than registration numbers. That’s because on March 12th, the Bermudan
Civil Aviation Authority (BCAA) provisionally suspended the Certificates of Airworthiness (CoA)
of all Russian jets registered within the country. In a statement posted to its website, the BCAA
said that sanctions have meant that the aviation authority is no longer able to sustain
quote-unquote “safety oversight” on Russian operated aircraft on its registry, adding:
“The airworthiness system has been restricted to the point that the Bermuda Civil Aviation
Authority is unable to confidently approve these aircraft as being airworthy.”
In addition to aircraft safety oversight issues, sanctions require that lessors terminate all
leasing contracts with Russian airlines by 28th March at the latest. To prevent a fleet exodus,
Putin recently signed a bill that will allow foreign aircraft to be re-registered in Russia,
ensuring its continued operations (at least domestically). However, re-registering an aircraft
without a certificate of deregistration is an illegal practice, running airlines into all kinds
of trouble. While the forced nastionalization of planes will buy Russia some time to protect
its aviation industry, the lack of new planes means the future looks very hazy for the market.
Russian-operated aircraft on the Bermudan registry
have had to be re-registered on to the Russian registry.
Aircraft previously registered in Bermuda with prefixes VP-B and VQ-B will now have prefixes of
RA- indicating their place on the Russian aircraft registry. This includes the entirety of Aeroflot’s
A350 fleet, as well as its other aircraft- including its Boeing 777s and Airbus A320s.
This mass re-registration of aircraft off the Bermudan registry and over to Russia is more
than likely the case for other Russian carriers- such as Aeroflot subsidiaries Rossiya and Pobeda.
Planespotters.net has been updating these changes as they become available, so it’s worth
checking out the site if you’re interested in this aspect of Russian airline fleets.
At the time of this video’s production, much of Aeroflot’s fleet is listed as
‘parked’ by Planespotters. Indeed, out of the roughly 180 aircraft, 56 are listed as parked.
With airspace bans surrounding Russia, the airline would certainly not be able to operate as many
services as it did before late February. The seizures witnessed in late February would also
offer a good explanation as to why Aeroflot and other Russian carriers
have suspended their international services, save for flights to friendly neighbor Belarus.
Thus, these factors have contributed to reduced demand
and the reason for so many Aeroflot aircraft remaining on the ground.
For Aeroflot jets that are active- the airline has been deploying Airbus and
Boeing widebodies on lengthy transcontinental services- often with durations of 7 or 8 hours.
When it comes to the 7 of 15 Boeing 777s listed as in-service by Planespotters,
data from FlightRadar24 tells us that the jet currently registered as VQ-BQM
has been flying out of Moscow to destinations like Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky airport.
It’s a similar situation for other Aeroflot 777s registered BHA, BQE and BUB.
Similarly, the airline’s active fleet of Airbus
A330-300s have been keeping to Russian airspace. From Moscow Sheremetyevo, the airline has deployed
its A330s to Russian destinations such as Khabarovsk, Yakutsk, and Vladivostok.
The serviceability of existing aircraft is also a big question mark for Aeroflot.
Not only have planemakers like Airbus stopped delivery of new aircraft,
but sanctions in addition to the decisions of international planemakers,
have resulted in a cutoff of parts supplies to Russia.
Considering the fact that 171 of Aeroflot’s 180 aircraft are from either Airbus or Boeing,
the carrier would seem to be in trouble when it comes to aircraft maintenance.
The uncertainty of this situation has led to much speculation. Some would say
that Aeroflot’s Airbus and Boeing aircraft will simply remain on the ground, unable to operate.
Before this happens, we would imagine that aircraft with functioning parts could be
cannibalized to ensure partial fleet operation.
However, beyond this, it’s quite conceivable that, with support from the Russian government,
spare parts could simply be produced by Russian companies. With enough resources
and raw materials, reverse engineering could take place, ensuring a steady supply of spares.
While this type of activity would be a clear violation of copyright and
intellectual property law, it’s clear that Russia is not likely to comply with
international agreements that would further damage its weakened economy.
Indeed, the nation may nationalize aircraft owned by external lessors,
essentially holding on to property that isn’t technically theirs.
The future is very much unclear for Aeroflot’s fleet- and of course the fleets of its
subsidiaries, as well as other Russian carriers. Naturally, this uncertainty will remain until
the conflict in Ukraine is resolved one way or another. Should Russia somehow succeed
militarily in its invasion, economic sanctions and airspace bans are likely to continue.
Should Russia find itself in a situation similar to that of Iran or North Korea,
the country’s homegrown aviation sector will likely rise to become
the solution for Russian commercial aviation.
When it comes to the Russian planemaking industry, we already know that MC-21
development will be adjusted. Already forced to develop Russian-built engines and composite
parts for the short and medium-range narrowbody aircraft due to previous sanctions, long-term
sanctions may prompt a speedier development of the new narrowbody flagship project MC-21.
In mid-March, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov stated:
“There is no pause in the work of enterprises and there will not be.
Everyone continues to work. Let me emphasize once again that we are
speeding up the implementation of our flagship projects MC-21 and SSJ-100.”
Additionally, Rostec’s Sergei Chemezov, says that resuming
serial production of the medium-haul Tu-204 and wideboy Il-96 are being considered.
So, with these statements being considered, it’s conceivable that,
if Russia continues its aggressive stance in Europe,
that Aeroflot and other Russian airlines may eventually be dominated by Russian-built aircraft.
Already, carriers- mainly Aeroflot subsidiary Rossiya-
are operating the small regional SSJ100 with increased frequency.
Soon, if sanctions continue, we could see the MC-21 becoming Aeroflot’s replacement
for the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 family.
And while the CR929 has had its rough patches,
it could soon be the only choice of new widebody for Russian carriers.
But what do you think is the future of Aeroflot’s fleet, both in the short term and
long term? Do you think there’s a chance that replica Airbus and Boeing parts will
be produced for aircraft in Russia? Let us know what you think by leaving a comment.