>>>
>>> THE
>>> THE HOUSING MARKET IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS TAKEN A
BIT OF A TURN THIS YEAR.
NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION IS ON THE
RISE AND THAT INCREASE GIVES
CONSUMERS MORE OPTIONS AND CAN
ALSO AFFECT PRICES IN THE
REGION.
REGION.
REGION. FOR THE LATEST ON THE
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
HAPPENING HERE IN THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA AND SURROUNDING
REGION, WE TURN TO CORTLAND AT
GILMAN.
GILMAN.
GILMAN. THANK YOU FOR BEING BACK WITH
US.
US.
US. WE
US. WE REPORTED EARLIER IN THE SHOW
ABOUT NOR FOLK AND HOW THEY
JUST BROKE GROUND ON NEW
HEADQUARTERS AND THEY ALREADY
HAVE HUNDREDS OF EMPLOYEES
MOVING TO THE METRO AREA, MORE
EXPECTED THIS SUMMER.
WHAT WOULD YOU TELL FOLKS IN
THE WAY OF FINDING SUPPLIES FOR
SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES OR IF THEY
WANT TO MOVE INTO A MULTIFAMILY
CONDO, WHAT WOULD YOU TELL THEM
ABOUT WHERE THE SUPPLY IS IN
THE METRO AREA?
>> WE HAVE ABOUT 17,000
APARTMENT UNITS UNDER
CONSTRUCTION RIGHT NOW ACROSS
THE METRO AREA AND THESE TEND
TO BE LOCATED DOWNTOWN, MIDTOWN
AND BUCKHEAD TENDING TO BE A
LITTLE BIT HIGHER RENT LEVEL.
WE ALSO HAVE SINGLE-FAMILY
SUPPLY UNDERWAY THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A PIVOT BASED ON
WHAT THE HOMEBUILDERS HAVE BEEN
SAYING, THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF
A PIVOT TO TOWARDS INFILL
DEVELOPMENT.
DEVELOPMENT. IT SEEMS LIKE WE WILL SEE MORE
TOWNHOMES.
TOWNHOMES. >> TOWNHOMES HAVE BEEN ON THE
DRIVE. ARE THEY MAKING A
COMEBACK?
COMEBACK?
COMEBACK? >> OH, YEAH.
WE ARE SEEING WITH SOME OF
THESE HOMES IN THE SIZE OF A
TAX-DEDUCTIBLE MORTGAGE THAT
SOME OF THESE LARGER HOMES, THE
HIGHEST AND BEST USE IS NOT A
SINGLE FAMILY WITH A BIG YARD
OR A SMALL FOREST OR WHAT HAVE
YOU BUT INSTEAD, A SERIES OF
TOWNHOMES OR DENTS OR FAMILY
HOMES.
HOMES.
HOMES. >>
HOMES. >> MAKING BETTER USE OF THE
SPACE AVAILABLE.
SPACE AVAILABLE. >> THAT'S RIGHT.
>> WHAT ABOUT SOME OF THE OLDER
COMMUNITIES IN TOWN THAT MAY
HAVE FALLEN ON HARD TIMES
DURING THE RECESSION?
THOSE ARE MORE SINGLE-FAMILY
HOMES, NOT REALLY ENOUGH ROOM
TO PUT A TOWNHOUSE, ARE THOSE
AREAS IN DEMAND, AS WELL?
>> THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF THAT.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE LAND HOME
PRICE APPRECIATION ACROSS THE
COUNTRY, IT HAS CONTINUED AT A
RELATIVELY ROBUST PACE AT ABOUT
5% AND IN THE COUNTRY, YOU ARE
SEEING A BIT OF A SLOWDOWN LAST
YEAR.
YEAR.
YEAR. IN
YEAR. IN ATLANTA, IN TOWN, 11% SO
IT'S A LOT HIGHER AND THIS IS
SOMETHING THE AFFORDABILITY
CONSTRAINTS WE HAVE HEARD ABOUT
AND IF YOU THINK ABOUT PEOPLE
TRYING TO BUY THOSE HOMES WITH
HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES LIKE WE
HAD LAST YEAR, THAT IS A LITTLE
BIT MORE DIFFICULT BUT AFTER
THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND AFTER
SOME OF THE ANNOUNCEMENTS BY
THE FEDERAL RESERVE, WE HAVE
SEEN MORTGAGE RATES COME DOWN
QUITE A LOT TO ABOUT 5%.
>> AND THAT IS PRETTY MUCH IT
FOR RAISING INTEREST RATES THIS
YEAR.
YEAR.
YEAR. WE
YEAR. WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT OUR
HOMEBUILDER AND THOSE WHO ARE
PUTTING UP THESE NEW TOWNHOMES
AND ETC., ARE THEY OPTIMISTIC
GIVEN WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE
ECONOMY?
ECONOMY?
ECONOMY? >> WELL, IF YOU'RE A
HOMEBUILDER, YOU HAVE TO BE
OPTIMISTIC.
OPTIMISTIC. I THINK THEY GOT A LITTLE BIT
OF A SCARE WHEN THEY SAW
COMMODITY PRICES LAST YEAR AND
LUMBER PRICES AFFECTING
FAMILIES MOURN.
FAMILIES MOURN. NOW THAT THAT HAS COME DOWN A
LITTLE BIT, I THINK THEY ARE
LESS CONCERNED THAT THEY GOT TO
BE OPTIMISTIC.
BE OPTIMISTIC. I THINK THERE IS INCREASING
ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT WE ARE
UNDER HOUSED IN ATLANTA AND
THAT CAN ALWAYS BE TOUGH TO
GAUGE BECAUSE WE HAVE PEOPLE
MOVING HERE.
MOVING HERE. FROM TIME TO TIME, WE GET THESE
REAL BURSTS OF DEMAND.
IN 2017, WE HAD ABOUT 55,000
PEOPLE MOVING INTO THE METRO
AREA.
AREA.
AREA. WHEN THE NEW NUMBERS COME OUT
IN JUNE OR SO, WE WILL BE ABLE
TO GAUGE WHAT HAPPENED IN 2018
BUT I WOULD EXPECT THAT WE
WOULD GET SOME KIND OF
INCREMENTAL LIFT FROM PEOPLE
MOVING TO THIS AREA BOTH FOR
THE AFFORDABILITY AND THE
ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY.
ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY. >> YELL, IT SEEMS TO BE A
PRETTY STEADY FLOW OF ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS, NEW
JOBS COMING TO THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA AND I AM WONDERING
FROM THE ECONOMIC SIDE, YOU
KNOW, THERE HAS BEEN MAYBE A
LOT OF CHATTER ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RECESSION.
HOW IS THE INDUSTRY SORT OF
RACING FOR THAT OR PREPARING
FOR THAT?
FOR THAT?
FOR THAT? >> FOR HOMEBUILDERS, IT IS
GOING TO BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT IT WOULD BE FOR THE
MULTIFAMILY SIDE.
MULTIFAMILY SIDE. BUILDERS HAVE THE NEED TO SELL
THE HOME THAT THEY ARE
BUILDING.
BUILDING.
BUILDING. ON THE MULTIFAMILY SIDE, YOU
ARE CONSTANTLY MAKING SURE THEY
WILL WANT TO RENEW THEIR LEASE
AND STAY WITH YOU AND THAT KIND
OF THING AND IT CREATES A VERY
DIFFERENT RISK PROFILE.
THERE IS A COMMON VIEW WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE SMALL RECESSION OR
EVEN THE FLAT JOBS LATE 2021.
THIS IS A