Translator: Ilze Garda Reviewer: Maricene Crus
For the last three years,
I have been researching Russia's influence in Latvia:
what Russian speakers think,
what are relations between Latvian and Russian communities here in Latvia.
I've been listening to what Russians have to say.
This has always been at the background of my life.
You see, my grandmother, Dzintra Hirša,
she was in charge of the State Language Agency,
in charge of the de-Russification
after the end of the Soviet occupation in the 1990s.
Her perspective was clear enough,
and politics were always discussed at home.
She thought that Latvia has suffered injustice from the hands of Russians:
Russians, they have no right to celebrate Victory Day
over the Nazis in the Second World War.
It was not a victory; it was an occupation of Latvia.
And there are many Latvians who agree with my grandmother.
But then I started my studies.
I studied politics at the University of Latvia.
Nils Muižnieks and others there,
they exposed me to a wide range of different ideas.
Russians too were victims of the Soviet regime.
They celebrate their victory in WWII
because their parents fought in it, they died in it.
They feel some pride, and it's only natural.
It's not that they celebrate the occupation of Latvia.
Even more, during my studies, I met my first Russian friend.
Imagine this: I had lived in Latvia for 18 years,
and I had never had a Russian friend,
in a country where a third of the population speaks Russian.
And this is normal in Latvia.
There are Latvians who don't know any Russians, and vice versa.
And with Arturs, we talked about politics quite a lot.
We often didn't agree, but we were friends,
and I valued his opinions.
But up till that point, I had never heard what Russians had to say,
I had only heard Latvian stereotypes about the Russian community here.
But now I was listening and hearing what he had to say,
why he believes what he believes.
And it is hard to do that.
Judging others comes so easily
because the more important an idea is for you,
the more deeply rooted it is.
When someone challenges your deeply rooted beliefs,
things can get emotional
because we perceive that the core of our identity is under attack.
This is simply how the human mind works.
And in Latvia,
we do have these two different worldviews that exist here,
different perspectives on history, politics, language, and other issues,
where Russian and Latvian communities don't really agree;
even have totally opposed worldviews about.
For example, in one of the focus groups we conducted,
there were Russians discussing events of the Second World War,
and the idea that the Red Army liberated Latvia came up very quickly.
And this lady behind a screen observing the focus group,
she got emotional.
"They have no right to say this!
The Soviet Army didn't liberate Latvia; they occupied Latvia."
And there definitely are people like this in our society
who get emotional when exposed to a different set of beliefs.
And, of course, this applies not only to Latvians,
but also Russians here.
On the other hand, the majority of our society can get along.
For example, in interviews, what showed up
is there's a lot of mixed marriages
between Latvians and Russians here in Latvia.
And when a married couple visits their Russian side of the family,
well, they tend to agree with everything their Russian parents say.
What do you think happens when they visit their Latvian parents?
Well, nothing really happens,
they agree with everything their Latvian parents have to say
about politics, history and other issues.
To some extent, this shows that our society is mature:
we try to avoid conflict, we want to get along.
But since Russia's aggression in Ukraine and Crimea,
the attention of the world has shifted towards the Baltic States and Latvia.
The Kremlin used the Russian-speaking community in Ukraine
to incite mass uprising.
Then the media abroad, like here at the BBC,
well, they look at the map,
and they say that in Kazakhstan there are a lot of Russians;
in Estonia, a lot of Russians; but in Latvia ... the most.
26 percent of our population are ethnic Russians.
Even more, 37 percent speak Russian,
their mother tongue is the Russian language.
And the BBC concludes that Latvia is the potential next target for Russia,
the weakest link in the NATO alliance.
Another example.
Here is Stratfor, an American think tank.
They look a bit deeper.
They see that Ukraine wasn't homogeneous,
neither is Latvia.
But still, in the capital, Riga,
half of the population are Russian speakers.
In the eastern part of Latvia, Latgale, again, half speak the Russian language.
Which makes these two regions vulnerable.
Another example, this top American military journal, per Concordiam.
Their argument is quite simple:
the Latgale region of Latvia has a lot of Russians,
it's a separate ethnic group with their own language,
and it's the logical location for any Russian invasion.
And for the last three years,
there have been many stereotypes and exaggerations like this
in the New York Times and other major media
that suggest that Russian speakers are homogeneous, and they are pro-Russia.
But are things really that bad, how can they know this?
They cannot.
Because up till last year,
there was no data on this, no polls, nothing.
These articles simply assume
that most or the majority of Russians
are pro-Russia.
At best, they've sent a journalist here,
he's interviewed one or two Russian radicals
that we do have here in Latvia,
and he assumes all Russians think like this.
And I would say such an approach is even harmful
because if you assume
that all Russians in the countries of this region are pro-Russia,
you give a big power that Russia has over the hearts and minds of these people.
It allows Putin to punch above his weight.
Even more, it is offensive to many Russians who live here.
And these biases and stereotypes, they are harmful.
Evidence based on science and data should guide our thinking on this,
should guide our policies
on complex issues that we do have here in Latvia.
So, over the last years, I have been conducting research on this.
There have been two nationally representative surveys across all Latvia,
one in Latgale.
There have been focus groups, interviews:
I've been trying to listen to what Russian speakers have to say.
So, in Latvia, 37 percent of the population are Russian speakers.
Are they a homogeneous, unified group?
Not at all.
Let me illustrate.
One of the stories the Russian propaganda tells about Ukraine, Latvia,
and, well, everyone they don't like,
is that they are fascists.
We tested in our polls
if people agree with these stories Russia tells about Latvia and the world.
To this question: Is restoration of fascism taking place in Latvia?,
it's not that all Russian speakers agree to this;
it's only roughly half.
But even if people agree to this story that fascism is on the rise,
what showed in interviews -
there was this lady from Latgale,
and she agrees, "Yeah, fascism is on the rise."
We asked her, "Well, where do you see this in your life?"
And she says, "I don't see it; I see it only in TV.
This is something that happens in Riga.
Thank God, we don't have anything like this in Latgale."
(Laughter)
In another interview,
there is another lady, also a Russian speaker,
and she has relatives in Ukraine.
But she doesn't believe her relatives
because the relatives have been brainwashed
by the fascist junta in Kiev.
She does believe Russian state television.
So think about this for a moment.
Television, mass media, have a major hold on our minds,
on the hearts and minds of people.
If you consume one biased source of information for years,
it's not that surprising that you will agree to this.
So, by now, some of you might think
that all our Russians consume Russian media,
they all agree with what Russia says.
But this is not the case.
In Latvia, roughly half of Russian speakers
consume media only in the Russian language,
both from Russia, Russian-state owned, but also local media in Russian
because the local media, or the most popular ones,
they very often copy the stories that Russian media publish.
We also used other questions
which tested support for these Russian narratives about Latvia:
Do you think that Russia should protect Russian speakers in Latvia?,
Do you support use of pro-Russia symbols:
Russian flags, Georgian ribbons, and Victory Day celebrations?,
and many others.
Overall, half of Russian speakers in Latvia,
well, they live in this Russian media sphere of influence,
they agree with Russia's stories about the world.
And the idea is that it would be easier for Putin to tap into the minds of people
who already agree with all the stories he tells about the world.
But it gets more complicated than this.
How many Russian speakers feel belonging to Russia here in Latvia?
Even less, it's a minority.
In the polls, 28 percent of Russian speakers,
they say they feel close ties to Russia.
In interviews, there was this small story that came up.
For example, when Russians travel to Moscow or Saint Petersburg,
the Russians there say,
"You are not real Russians, you have these Baltic accents, you're different."
So it's not that surprising
that the Russian community in Latvia doesn't feel that close ties to Russia.
Even more, most of the people who feel belonging to Russia,
also feel belonging to Latvia - here in green.
Only a small minority, roughly 10 percent,
they're alienated from the Latvian state and feel belonging only to [Russia].
For example, when Russians from Latvia travel to Europe,
after the events in the eastern Ukraine, they tend to say they are Latvians.
They don't want to be perceived as Russians when in Europe.
But it gets even more complicated than this.
Georgian ribbon ... wow!
I know that for some of you this causes some strong emotions.
For some it might be patriotism towards Russia;
for others it might be fear, some negative emotions.
And you remember what I told you about these deeply held beliefs
that invoke fear, that challenge our core beliefs?
This is exactly that.
But you must agree that, for the last years,
the number of Russian flags and Georgian ribbons,
it has gone down on our streets.
And I've gone to the Victory Day celebration
and asked people,
"So why haven't you put on your Georgian ribbon this year?"
And what people say is
that, after separatists put on this symbol on their clothing in the eastern Ukraine,
it has become a symbol of separatism, and they will not put it on anymore.
So there can be people in Latvia
who agree with what Russia does in its foreign policy,
who might like Vladimir Putin,
but they don't want to be perceived as separatists in Latvia.
Even more, this is also possible.
As you remember from two slides ago,
there are Russians who feel belonging to Russia
and who feel belonging to Latvia as well.
These things are complex, this is not a unified, homogeneous group.
But it gets even more complicated than this.
These attitudes, people tell in surveys,
do not mean in any way that a behavior will follow.
Well, let me illustrate.
For example,
when you tick a box in a survey which asks, "Are you religious?",
and you say, "Yeah, I'm religious,"
it doesn't mean that you're going to go to church on Sundays.
Attitude does not predict future behavior, and it applies also to Russians here.
So we used essentially psychological tests
which allowed to probe
if people are going to be socially and politically active in the future.
And the results of these tests,
well, they say that our society is not ready to go out and protest;
they don't believe their actions will change much;
they don't think that standing out from the crowd is something good.
We are not like Greeks, for example.
During the financial crisis in Greece,
there were many uprisings, violent protests;
while in Latvia,
we got only one small violent protest - on January 13, with a few windows smashed.
This might be bad for democracy in Latvia,
but, in terms of security, it is a good thing.
Favorable conditions for mass protests do not exist.
Russian speakers are not a homogeneous - they're not a unified group,
the extent of Russia's influence should not be overestimated.
But, by now, some of you must be thinking,
"He's trying to whitewash the whole situation,
he's trying to downplay Russia's influence in Latvia."
No, there are definitely problems and vulnerabilities that we have,
there is potential for polarization in Latvia,
there are these two realities groups of our society live in.
Half of Russian speakers
do not consume any media in other language than Russian.
They don't consume media in Latvian or English,
so they don't get exposed to the Latvian or Western worldview.
And this can be a source of tension.
There are also real problems that exist here in Latvia.
For example, in the eastern region, the Latgale region,
unemployment currently is 18 percent.
This is a Great Depression level of unemployment.
And even more, if there were no problems in Latvia,
Russian propaganda doesn't need real things to work with.
It can take a camera,
put it at the right angle,
and show a small protest as a large, pro-Russia uprising.
At the same time, I want to emphasize
that to address these complex problems that we do have here in Latvia,
we should look at the evidence, at what are the facts.
It's easy to build a worldview on fear and anecdotal evidence,
but it's hard to think, hard to look for data,
hard to listen to what people have to say.
But it allows us and policy makers
to see the real picture, to address the real issues;
not the perceived ones.
We should base our views on data, facts, and evidence;
not stereotypes and biases.
And going back to the interviews, when Latvians and Russians meet,
they try to avoid these sensitive topics in their conversations.
To some extent, this shows that our society is mature,
they want to avoid conflict and get along.
However, the next step in overcoming divisions in our society
is talking and listening.
These are sensitive issues, these are emotional issues,
but I would recommend that you do talk about them:
with your Russian friends if you are a Latvian;
and your Latvian friends if you are a Russian.
Not to argue, not to convince, not to enlighten,
but to understand why they believe what they believe,
to acknowledge that the other party has a valid set of beliefs for good reasons.
And that would be your next step
in bringing these divided communities back together.
(Applause)