By now, we have all seen videos of the Wagner private military taking over one of the largest
cities in Russia and marching towards Moscow to restore justice for the Russian people.
Global networks around the world keep telling us that there a coup attempt in Russia.
And that's a concern for everyone since Russia is the largest nuclear power, and if these
nuclear warheads end up in the wrong hands, we're all in trouble.
A nuclear war would definitely put an end to the stock market, so you can already sense
a stock market collapse.
The only problem with this coup is that it's most likely staged.
It might sound like a conspiracy, but hear me out because by the end of the video, you
will change your mind.
This staged coup is good news for the market and the world.
A year ago Putin was at the gates of Kiev and almost took over the capital of Ukraine,
fast forward to 2023, his regime is crumbling and it seems like he is loosing control.
But that is not entire accurate since the coup is Staged.
The media claims that the head of the private military Wagner, Evgeni Prigozhin, left Ukraine
and took over a major city, which was a major hub for the Russian military's operations
in Ukraine.
As he began marching towards Moscow with his troops, Putin recorded a video claiming that
it's a betrayal and it could destabilize the country, leading to a civil war like in 1917,
and resulting in the collapse of the Russian state.
Let's start with Prigozhin.
While he is portrayed in the media as someone who tried to overthrow Putin, he is actually
one of Putin's oldest friends.
But sometimes, even friends can stab you in the back.
However, not in this case.
Why, you may ask?
Listen carefully.
Prigozhin is a former convict who was in jail for 9 years , and he has no chance to replace
Putin.
Secondly, he became a friend with Putin in 2001 when Putin randomly gave a visit to his
restaurant.
Ever since, he began organizing all Putin’s events including his birthday.
First he was supplying food to the major presidential events and then he was granted a government
control to supply schools with food.
And eventually he became the sole supplier of food to the military and other government
branches, hence the nickname, Putin’s Cheff.
Putin begun trusting him so much that he asked him to start a private military company to
carry out tasks that the official Russian military wouldn't do to avoid uncomfortable
questions, such as the takeover of Crimea.
When Putin was asked if the soldiers not wearing Russian military uniforms during the Crimea
takeover were Russian soldiers, he said no.
Technically, he wasn't lying because it was a private military and not the official Russian
army.
Wagner is funded by the government and executes Kremlin's orders.
Even during the invasion of Ukraine, Putin personally signed a decree giving Prigozhin
the authority to recruit convicts from prisons across the country to fight in Ukraine.
Where do you think Wagner gets all the weapons they need?
Do they buy them from Lockheed Martin?
Of course not, they are fully supplied by the Russian military.
So, a failed coup against Putin would essentially mean the end of the private military company
since the Russian government would stop supplying them with weapons.
The end of Putin means the end of Prigozhin, the stakes are just too high for him to attempt
a coup against Putin regardless of the failures in Ukraine.
A regime change in Russia means the end Prigozhin.
Secondly, when you stage a coup or start a military resistance against the president,
you will either succeed or end up in jail because you are a threat to the current president,
and you will most likely get killed or imprisoned if you don't succeed.
Go and ask every political figure in Russia who opposed Putin—they are either killed,
jailed, or poisoned.
There are probably hundreds of secret agents within the private military group, and putting
a bullet in the head of Prigzohin is not a difficult job.
You don't need to explain to people why you got rid of the person who attempted to overthrow
the government.
The constitution already says that's treason.
[FACE]
[But in the case of Prigozhin, the Russian government dropped all charges against him
by the end of the day](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/24/russia-ukraine-war-news-wagner-prigozhin/) and let him move to the neighboring country
Belarus, which is fully controlled by Russia.
Thirdly, if you have followed the sequences of events, then you know what happened.
But if you haven't, here is a quick recap:
Prigozhin recorded a 30-minute video blaming the Minister of Defense for the failure in
Ukraine.
He accused him of stealing all the money that Putin threw into the military since he became
the Minister of Defense.
He claimed that whatever the military has been telling you is just a lie.
The Russian military is collapsing, it has no chance to win this war, and this is because
Shoygy, the Minister of Defense, and his friends have corrupted the entire military.
Most importantly, he made it clear that it's not Putin's fault that Russia invaded Ukraine,
but rather the Minister of Defense, along with the top generals, who lied to Putin to
start the war so that they could get wealthier and keep robbing Russia.
In other words, Putin is not the bad guy, it's the people around him who started this
war.
[After that video, Prigozhin claimed that the military hit the Wagner's military camp
with a missle.](https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/06/23/prigozhin-wagner-russia-military-killing-troops-chance-dnt-tsr-vpx.cnn) That's why Prigozhin took over Rostov, which
is a large city in Russia, and began marching to Moscow.
If you want to create an uprising, why would you make people believe it's not Putin's fault?
Fourthly, it's not the first conflict between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense.
For over six months, Prigozhin constantly blamed the Minister of Defense, Shougy, and
the head of the special military operation, Gerasimov, for not supplying him with enough
weapons, and they are the reason the Russian military is crumbling in Ukraine and it’s
their fault that so many people have been killed in the war.
It didn't happen once or twice, but rather multiple times.
In a country like russia where the information is tightly controlled, where people are jailed
for up to 10 years for discrediting the militatary, especially when it comes to the war in Ukraine,
its unlikely that prigozhin could have kept saying all of that if he didnt have the backing
of Putin himself.
If Prigozhin was becoming a threat to Putin, he could have eliminated him in Bakhmut, where
he was fighting for almost a year.
But regardless of his actions and statements, he had full immunity from the government.
In fact, the Russian media, fully controlled by the Kremlin, kept praising him since he
joined the war in Ukraine.
Number 5: Where is the Minister of Defense?
Imagine there is an armed rebellion in your country.
The first person who should be in the headlines is the Minister of Defense.
He has been absent from public view before the rebellion started, and no one knew where
he was during the rebellion.
And after the rebellion, he still didn't appear in public.
2 days after the coup, , the Kremlin published this video claiming that Shoygu is overseeing
operations in Ukraine.
I don't know about you, but this video could have been shot a year ago, and nobody would
know.
There is a military rebellion in your country, and you can't even give a press conference
to answer basic questions?
and then the following day kremlin published this 35 second video that Putin is having
a meeting with heads of law enforcement agencies.
and apparently shoygu supposed to be there as well.
Number 6: The conflict started Friday evening Moscow time when the markets closed, and the
rebellion began the next day.
The ruble dropped in value significantly, and Russian markets were collapsing.
But that was in theory, as nothing was happening in practice since the markets were closed.
By the end of Saturday, the rebellion was over, the Kremlin dropped all charges against
Prigozhin and all Wagner members, and by Sunday, the ruble climbed back to where it had been,
and everything calmed down.
Some members of the Russian parliament, fully controlled by Putin, claimed that Prigozhin
had done nothing wrong and didn't offend anyone, so everything is alright.
Number 7: Whenever there is instability in Russia, the Kremlin instantly blames the West
for meddling in Russia's affairs.
Russian jails are filled with political prisoners who simply made YouTube videos criticizing
the government.
They have been sent to prison and accused of being agents of the West.
But in the case of Prigozhin, the Foreign Minister of Russia instantly made it clear
that he has spoken with the US ambassador, and he has confirmed to him that the US was
not involved.
If you are Putin, you want to make sure that people believe that Prigozhin is supported
by the West and hence wants to overthrow the legitimate government.
If you look at any of these reasons individually, I will sound like a conspiracy theorist.
But if you put them together, suddenly the coup seems staged.
And now let's go to the final question of this video: Why did Putin stage this coup
against himself?
Putin has been in power for over 20 years.
He knows the rules of the game better than anyone else.
No one rises to power and stays in power for so long unless they have mastered the rules
of the game better than anyone.
The first rule of staying in power is, you stay in power as long as you control the treasury
because no man rules alone.
Regardless of who you are, you need the key people around you who will build roads, enforce
the law, and protect the country.
These keys to power could be anything from a handful to hundreds.
The only way to stay in power is to keep these key supporters on your side.
As a ruler, there is always a risk of a coup.
But the key supporters wouldn't switch sides if the risks are too high.
But the moment your control over the treasury loosens, let's say, for example, the economy
is doing so bad that the treasury begins shrinking, you have less money to spend on the key supporters.
Hence, your rival can promise more to the key supporters in the case of your replacement.
Each new sanction means less treasury, each mobilized man means fewer taxes, and each
dollar that is supposed to go to the treasury and be spent on the key supporters but instead
is spent on a war is a dollar your rival can promise to the key supporters if he replaces
you.
Hence, with each passing day that the treasury shrinks, an the probability of a coup rises.
**If the Kremlin took over Ukraine in a few days, it would have increased the treasury—more
land, more people paying taxes, more resources, which means more money going to the treasury.
But after Ukraine's counteroffensive, it was clear that Russia wouldn't be able to take
over Ukraine in the foreseeable future.
Russia does have the resources to keep fighting for many years to come, but with each passing
day, the probability of a coup rises for Putin, hence his motivation to fighting drops.**
So Putin is left with two options: keep fighting a war that you can't win in the foreseeable
future and risk getting replaced in a coup de’ta, or stage the coup yourself so that
you can choose the victim to blame for the war in Ukraine and end this conflict.
But why would Putin do something like that?
Why can't he just end the war?
Putin has gambled the entire Russia on this war.
Dozens of thousands of Russian soldiers have already died, and hundreds of thousands have
been mobilized.
People lost their businesses, and the Russian economy is crumbling.
For over 10 years, the Russian people have been told that they have to take over Ukraine,
or NATO will take over Russia.
You cannot just undo that overnight.
There must be someone who should be blamed for that.
That's why we have the noun: scapegoat.
And Putin's scapegoats are going to be the Minister of Defense and most likely the head
of the special military operation, Gerasimov.
In short, they will be blamed for stealing government funds that were supposed to have
modernized the Russian military and prepared for any challenges.
They will also be blamed for misleading Putin and feeding wrong intel about what's happening
in Ukraine so that the war starts and they can steal even more money.
It's difficult to predict exactly what they will come up with, but it might have been
approved with the US, the European Union, and even Ukraine as a way to end the war while
Putin saves face and won't be humiliated by this defeat.
And how do you do that?
Stage a coup.
Convince everyone that it was a real coup.
Take credit for stopping the coup.
Launch an investigation into both parties—the private military company and the defense ministry—and
blame the factions for destabilizing Russia, and dragging Russia into a war that’s tearing
Russi apart and take credit for saving Russia from a civil war.
This is not going to happen overnight, but it will be dragged out for some time until
there will be a million theories as to why Prigozhin started this and why he ended the
coup.
This is how he left the city after announcing the end of his coup.
That's not the sad face of someone who attempted a coup and failed and will now be charged
with treason and sentenced to death.
He then jumped into his private jet and safely flew to the neighboring country Belarus.
The war in Ukraine has reached a deadly rut where neither of parties can win in the forceable
future and neither of the countries have the political will to keep fighting and this stage
coup in Russia is the clear evidence that both partieis have agreed to the end of the
war while Putin saves face.
And now its your turn, do you think this coup was real if yes, then why?
thanks for watching and see you in the next video.