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the future as we know is very
unpredictable the best minds in the best
institutions generally get it wrong this
is in technology this is in the area of
politics where pundits the CIA mi6
always get it wrong and it's clearly in
the area of finance where the
institutions established to think about
the future the IMF the BIS the financial
stability forum couldn't see what was
coming over 20,000 economists whose job
it is competitive entry to get there
couldn't see what was happening
globalization is getting more complex
and this change is getting more rapid
the future will be more unpredictable
urbanization integration coming together
leads to new Renaissance it did this a
thousand years ago the last 40 years
have been extraordinary times life
expectancy has gone up by about 25 years
it took from the Stone Age to achieve
that income has gone up for majority of
the world's population despite the
population going up by about two billion
people over this period and illiteracy
has gone down from 1/2 to about a
quarter the people on earth a huge
opportunity unleashing of new potential
for innovation for development but
there's an underbelly there too Achilles
heels of globalization
there's the killer's heel of growing
inequality those that are left out those
that feel angry those that are not
participating globalization has not been
inclusive the second Achilles heel is
complexity a growing fragility a growing
brittleness what happens in one place
very quickly affects everything else
this is systemic risk systemic shock
we've seen it in the financial crisis
we've seen it in the pandemic flu it
will become violent and it's something
we have to build resilience again a lot
of this is driven by what's happening on
technology there's been huge leaps there
will be a million fold improvement in
what you can get for the same price in
computing by 2030 that's what the
experience of the last 20 years has been
it will continue our computers our
systems will be as primitive as the
Apollo's are for today our mobile phones
are more powerful than the total Apollo
space engine our mobile phones are more
powerful that's one the strongest
peters of 20 years ago so what will this
do it will create huge opportunities in
technology miniaturization as well there
will be invisible capacity invisible
capacity in our bodies in our brains and
in the air this is a dust mite on a nano
replica this sort of ability to do
everything in new ways unleashes
potential not least in the area of
medicine this is a stem cell that we've
developed here in Oxford from a
embryonic stem cell we can develop any
part of the body increasingly over time
this will be possible from our own skin
able to replicate parts of the body
fantastic potential for regenerative
medicine I don't think there'll be a
Special Olympics long after 2030 because
of this capacity to regenerate parts of
the body but the question is who will
have it the other major development is
going to be in the area of what can
happen on genetics the capacity to
create as this mouse has been
genetically modified something which
goes three times faster lasts for 3
times long and we could produce as this
mouse can to the age of our equivalent
of 80 years with using about the same
amount of food but will this only be
available for the super rich for those
that can afford it are we heading for
new eugenics we'll only those that are
able to afford it able to be the super
race of the future so the big question
for us is how do we manage this
technological change how do we ensure
that it creates a more inclusive
technology a technology which means that
not only as we grow older but we can
also grow wiser and if we able support
the populations of the future one of the
most dramatic manifestations of these
improvements will be moving from
population pyramids to what we might
term population coffins there's unlikely
to be a pension or retirement age in
2030 these will be redundant concepts
and this isn't only something of the
West the most dramatic changes will be
the skyscraper type of new pyramids that
will take place in China and in many
other countries
so forget about retirements if you're
young forget about pensions think about
life and where it's going to be going of
course migration will become even more
important the war on talent the need to
attract people at all skill ranges to
push us around in our wheelchairs but
also to
drive our economies our innovation will
be vital the employment in the rich
countries will go down for about 800 to
700 million of these people this would
imply a massive leap in migration so the
concerns the xenophobic concerns of
today or migration will be turned on
their head as we search for people to
help us sort out our pensions and our
economies in the future and then the
systemic risks we understand that these
will become much more virulent
that what we see today is this
interweaving of societies of systems
fastened by technologies in hastened by
just-in-time management systems small
levels of stock push resilience into
other people's responsibilities the
collapse in biodiversity climate change
pandemics financial crises these will be
the currency that we will think about
and so a new awareness will have to
arise of how we deal with these how we
mobilize ourselves in a new way and come
together as a community to manage
systemic risk it's going to require
innovation it's going to require an
understanding that the glory of
globalization could also be its downfall
this could be our best century ever
because of the achievements or it could
be our worst and of course we need to
worry about the individuals particularly
the individuals that feel that they've
been left out in one way or another an
individual for the first time in the
history of humanity will have the
capacity by 2030 to destroy the planet
to wreck everything through the creation
for example of a bio pathogen how do we
begin to weave these tapestries together
how do we think about complex systems in
new ways that will be the challenge of
the scholars and of all of us are
engaged in thinking about the future
the rest of our lives will be in the
future we need to prepare for it now we
need to understand that the governance
structure in the world is fossilized it
cannot begin to cope with the challenges
that this will bring we have to develop
a new way of managing the planet
collectively through collective wisdom
we know and I know from my own
experience that amazing things can
happen when individuals and societies
come together to change their future I
left South Africa and 15 years later
after thinking I would never go back we
had the privilege and the honor to work
in the government of Nelson Mandela this
was a miracle we can create miracles
collectively in our lifetime it is vital
that we
deucey his white let the ideas that are
nurtured in Ted that the ideas that we
think about look forward and make sure
that this will be the most glorious
century and not one of eco disaster
Anika collapse thank you
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