Japan, land of the rising sun.
But also land of the falling population.
It is the world’s tenth most populous nation, 3rd largest economy, and 1st in tiny monster
exports.
Even though it is one of the world’s richest and most powerful nations Japan faces the
same problem as the humble Panda.
It’s population has fallen every year since 2010.
But why?
And is the nation in trouble?
Let’s find out.
-Roll Intro-
Japan’s fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world.
At 1.46 babies per woman in 2015, this is quite a lot lower than the replacement rate
of 2.1.
A couple has babies that will grow up, join the workforce, and eventually replace their
parents.
Japan however is not meeting the 2.1 mark and likely won’t for a long time.
Projections put Japan at 1.69 births per woman in 2050.
If things continue the way they are according to the UN Population Prospects Japan is going
to have 20 million people fewer by 2050.
And the resulting worker shortages will hit the economy hard.
So why aren’t Japanese people having babies.
There are a lot of articles on the issue and some have tried to cause a stir by saying
that young Japanese people no longer have an interest in sex.
This however isn’t true.
In the country of love hotels young people are having more sex than ever.
In 1990, 65 percent of unmarried women and 45 percent of unmarried men had never had
sex.
Today it’s 50 percent and 40 percent.
The problem is getting them to reproduce.
And the reasons that they aren’t are mostly economic and social.
Women are leaving marriage until later in life.
Japan has historically been a very patriarchal society.
Where women were pushed into the background and their skills ignored.
Fortunately in the last few decades women have begun making careers for themselves.
Flourishing in arts, business, and government.
These careers require a lot of hardwork and dedication and takes priority over looking
for a husband.
The average age of marriage for the Japanese woman has risen from 24 in 1975 to nearly
30.
Which has a huge impact on reproduction.
A typical woman has 12% of her egg reserve left at age 30 and has only 3% at age 40.
So delayed marriage means a lower chance of having children.
But now that women have their own careers and can live independent lives they are obviously
not willing to give that up.
Historically a Japanese woman’s place was in the home.
And there is still pressure on women to continue with this role.
In Japan married couples are supposed to start having children quickly.
And once a woman has a child her career is pretty much over.
Working mothers are rare in Japan and their is huge societal pressure on women to just
quit their jobs once they become mothers.
Even if they want to continue working they may find it hard to advance in their chosen
career when their boss knows that they have children.
Even finding a job post pregnancy can be difficult.
So if you are a hardworking professional woman looking to advance in your field delaying
having children is the only option you really have.
Obviously it isn’t just women who are avoiding marriage.
Men too no longer see a reason to get married.
For the last two decades the marriage rate in Japan has been falling.
Young professional men see marriage as a risk.
They are supposed to assume the role of the sole wage earner once they are married.
Which is increasingly impossible in an economy with a growing number of part-time workers.
They also see marriage as an added stress in a work culture that already expects 50+
hours a week.
You might be wondering why I keep going on about marriage rates.
Marriage isn’t the only way to bring children into this world.
Sure in countries like the United States and The Netherlands 40% of children are born outside
of marriage.
However, only 2% of Japanese children are born outside of marriage and there is a massive
social stigma attached to it.
Marriage is the only socially acceptable way to reproduce in Japan and until the culture
around it changes the Japanese birthrate will be chained to the marriage rate.
A declining population by itself isn’t a major issue.
Many European states are facing a similar situation.
Countries like Lithuania, Poland, and Greece are all declining faster than Japan.
Japan however also happens to have the world’s longest lived people.
Which compounds the issue.
So while Japan will have 20 million fewer people by 2050, 42% of that lower population
will be 65 or older..
So fewer workers, fewer consumers, and even fewer people to take care of the aging.
And Japan’s life expectancy is only going to grow.
It currently sits at an average of 83.7 for both sexes and will most likely grow to 93.7
by 2095.
This will hit both the young and old hard.
As an aging population has already started impacting Japanese society.
Many small towns and villages are mostly filled with older people.
As young people flock to the cities to work and find partners these small towns are left
without any future.
43% of towns in Japan canceled their mayoral elections in 2015.
Mostly because people were running unopposed.
In 2015 there were over 15,000 unregistered nursing homes in Japan.
These unlicensed facilities are filled with low-earning retirees and have a reputation
for neglect and abuse.
The increase in deaths has crematoriums overbooked.
And families have turned to using “corpse hotels”.
Which are pretty much as spooky as they sound.
Places where relatives can mourn their lost loved ones with dignity.
Some even allow relatives to stay overnight, sleeping there and ordering food.
All while they wait for their turn to burn.
Now not all of this is doom and gloom.
Japan is an advanced nation filled with incredible minds.
So what can they do to resolve the issue.
Increasing the birthrate is the most obvious answer and Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo
Abe, has given the monumental job of convincing an unwilling generation to reproduce to Katsunobu
Kato.
Abe wants Kato to raise the birthrate to 1.8.
Which while still under the 2.1 need for replacement would help stabilize the population at 100
million by 2050.
Abe has also instituted something he calls Womenomics.
He wants to make it easier for women to continue their careers and to get even more women to
join the workforce.
By encouraging companies to treat women fairly, giving them more opportunities to rise to
senior positions, and closing the gender wage gap.
If successful this could offset the negative effects of population decline by another 20
years.
Another, seemingly simpler, thing that they could do is to loosen Japan’s infamously
tight immigration laws.Their shrinking population could be solved by allowing more immigrants
in to replace the retired and dying.
They could fill worker shortages, and in particular the shortage of care workers, by allowing
foreign carers into the country to help the elderly.
But Japan has historically been immigration averse and currently has a native population
of 98.5%.
Immigration has long been seen as a threat to Japanese culture.
So while Japan has been allowing more “guest-workers” into the country any kind of large scale immigration
is very unlikely in the near future.
The final and most Japanese of the solutions is, Robots.
Japan is famous for its research into Robotics and experts believe that they could care for
the old.
Shinzo Abe wants to create a “Robotics Revolution” and hopes to grow from 535 million Euros to
19 Billion Euros by 2020.
And it isn’t too far fetched.
Japan already has automatic cashiers in some convenience stores that scan and bag your
shopping without any human assistance as well as robot therapy seals.
Because why not.
So using Robots to care for the elderly isn’t a massive step.
While researching I found the Robear.
And it’s one of the greatest things I’ve ever seen.
Toshiharu Mukai created the Robear to perform tasks such as lifting patients from their
beds.
Which workers do an average of 40 times a day.
Causing them lots of fatigue and strain.
But why a Ro-Bear?
According to Mukai because "Bears are powerful and also cute".
And right now Japanese seniors are much more comfortable with being cared for by robot
bears rather than by immigrants Although it may be many years until this solution is viable
for everyone.
So whether through societal and cultural changes or submitting to Robear overlords how Japan
deals with its twofold problem of a declining population and an ageing one will not only
shape the future of the world's 3rd largest economy--it will most likely set the course
that many more nations will need to follow in the future.