The war in Ukraine continues to rage on, Russia seems to have no intention of backing down.
As Putin is predicted to order another round of mobilization, it seems like nothing can stop him.
Nothing, that is, besides maybe mother nature. And if Putin is on his last legs,
it might be very bad news for the whole world.
Putin is not a young man - in his 70s, most men his age are likely looking forward to
retirement instead of conquest. While he liked to brag about his perfect health
and fitness in the past - often posting dramatic pictures of himself engaged in
physical activities or riding horses - he seems to have dialed back in recent years. In fact,
he’s rarely seen in public at all anymore, and rumors are circling that he might be sick.
Very sick.
There’s not much information coming out of Russia at the moment, with the government
even more tight-lipped than usual. What the media usually gets is loosely sourced
reports saying that Putin is seeing a doctor, that he’s undergoing experimental treatments,
and that he’s hiding away from the public eye because his appearance has changed for
the worse. After all, Putin’s reputation as an unstoppable warrior is one of his best assets.
But according to intelligence sources, the situation might be more dire.
The head of Denmark’s Russian military intelligence division
spoke to an interviewer and said that while he didn’t believe Putin was terminally ill,
he did believe the Russian leader had cancer - and was likely undergoing hormone treatments.
Putin likely has access to the best care money can buy, but those treatments can
result in weight gain, which might explain why Putin is keeping himself hidden.
But according to another source, the situation might be even worse.
The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence division, Kyrylo Budanov, spoke bluntly to
media in recent months and said that Putin wasn’t just sick - he was dying, of terminal cancer, and
likely wouldn’t live to see the end of the war one way or another. Is this accurate? No one knows,
and disinformation is a key part of war. So if Ukrainians can make people think Putin is dying,
it might help demoralize the Russian army. The few recent glimpses of Putin we got recently didn’t
help his image, with him stumbling across the Red Square and looking rather frail and lethargic.
So if Putin is on his last legs, is the war as well?
Unfortunately, real life isn’t usually like the movies, and the defeat or death of a villain
doesn’t often mean the end of the crisis. In fact, Putin’s ill health just might make him
more dangerous than ever - because he has nothing left to lose. Putin comes from a
different era of Russia, growing up in the heyday of the USSR and rising to a powerful position in
its spy services. Then, as a young man, he watched it decline and ultimately collapse,
losing large swaths of its territory in Europe and Asia. And that may be a big
part of his motivation for invading Ukraine - restoring Russia to its former glory.
And he couldn’t think of a better final act.
Russia is already the largest country in the world, but during its heyday it was much,
much bigger. During the collapse, Russia lost almost a quarter of its territory and
with it almost half its population and 40% of its gross national product. According to
many Russian hardliners, all that territory is still rightfully Russian - and should be
taken back by any means necessary. While Putin has so far contained his rage to one country,
a ticking clock on his final mission may mean all bets are off.
And that could mean a much larger war.
Right now, Putin has been careful not to start an open war with NATO. While NATO
provides many of the weapons Ukraine uses in the war, they have refused to give Ukraine
any weapons that could directly hit Moscow. Likewise, Moscow has not attacked any NATO
shipments until they arrive in Ukraine - and the one missile strike that hit Poland turned
out to be a tragic friendly-fire incident. However, if Putin decides it’s now or never,
he could start retaliating directly against NATO - or even try to conquer countries like Poland,
which were once behind the Iron Curtain. According to NATO doctrine if one nation is attacked,
all NATO nations are bound to aid in its defense - which could mean World War III.
And things could escalate quickly if Putin makes the wrong decision.
If he feels like he has nothing else to lose, could Putin be tempted to resort to nuclear
weapons? That’s the fear everyone has - and no doubt, something he wants to leverage to
achieve his goals. But it’s less likely than it appears - Putin might not feel like he has
any other options, but millions of Russians do. As it’s unlikely any nuclear exchange between
Russia and NATO would stay limited, this could endanger the whole Russian homeland. Putin hasn’t
been moved at all by past protests against his rule - but if he loses the faith of his Generals,
all bets are off. If Putin’s illness makes him more eager to start World War 3,
even if it means nothing outlives him anywhere, the end could come for him faster than expected.
But even if Putin is removed from power, things might still not turn out well.
There’s no question that Vladimir Putin is at the bulls-eye center of all the trouble going
on in Europe right now, but he’s far from alone. While many people who hold
power within Russia had doubts about the plan to invade Ukraine, they’re also not
likely to become peaceniks or reformers in the aftermath. That means that Putin’s departure,
if pulled off smoothly, would mean that the overall policies might not change that much.
And in some cases, things might get worse.
In the United States, if President Biden becomes incapacitated or leaves office,
everyone knows Vice President Harris is next in line. In a Parliamentary democracy
like the United Kingdom, it’s a little more complicated, but there’s still a plan - the
party picks the new leader, and they immediately take office. That’s what
we saw when Boris Johnson was forced to resign and was replaced by Liz Truss…for a few weeks,
before her incompetent tenure saw her step down by public demand and be replaced by
Rishi Sunak. Hey, we said there was a plan, we didn’t say it would be orderly.
But it’s a very different story in Russia.
Putin took over from Russia’s first democratically elected leader, Boris Yeltsin, and has won almost
every election since then. So far it’s become very clear that he has no intention of leaving office
by democratic means. Most elections in Russia are formalities, with pro-democracy parties outlawed
and only the Communist Party allowed to provide token opposition. When he was term-limited out,
he did step down - long enough for his second-in-command Dmitri Medvedev to take over,
repeal the term limits, and step aside for Putin to run in the next election!
That means that the plan for Putin’s successor…might be no plan at all.
And if Putin leaves in a hurry, either by a sudden death or incapacitation due to illness,
or due to a coup by his own insiders, the results could be pure chaos. There are no
shortage of powerful Russian figures who want the power that Putin has been keeping to himself like
Smaug on the Lonely Mountain for over twenty years. It’s been a long time since control
of Russia was up for grabs - and there is no way of knowing just how bad things could get.
And it all depends on which faction takes control.
If Putin is around to choose his successor, the likely candidates are going to be hardliners
as well. On paper, Medvedev seems likely to take over his boss’ position for a second time - this
time permanently - and the longtime Russian functionary has been playing it up for the
camera. His threatening statements towards the west have often been more extreme than Putin’s,
but many outsiders believe this is a show. After all, Medvedev is playing up his image
for an audience, but it’s believed he’s more pragmatic and political than the ruthless Putin.
Which means he might not be Putin’s choice after all.
In recent years, another figure has grown closer to Putin. Nikolai Patrushev, the former
head of the FSB spy agency and the current secretary of the Security Council of Russia,
he comes from a similar background as ex-spy Putin - and is believed to be whispering hardline
sentiments in Putin’s ear. The conspiratorial Patrushev believes that the west is working to
bring about the end of Russia, and may have been collecting evidence on foreign leaders
and countries for years. As Putin’s confidant, he may be chosen as Putin’s successor so the
war in Ukraine could continue to rage on- but at only a few years younger than Putin,
he will no doubt have many younger and hungrier figures looking to displace him.
But if Putin doesn’t get to pick his successor, all bets are off.
If Putin was deemed to be incapacitated, unstable, or otherwise a danger to Russia,
he could potentially be couped by his own inner circle - although this could be incredibly
dangerous, due to how protected Putin is and how likely he is to view any attempt
to remove him from power as an attack from the west. But if he is successfully removed,
he’s likely to be replaced by an experienced military leader- someone like Defense Minister
Sergei Shoigu, seen as a more pragmatic but fiercely patriotic Russian figure.
So is he likely to bring an end to the war in Ukraine?
Unfortunately, that’s not likely. While Shoigu is seen as a more stable figure than Putin,
he’s also a ruthless military leader. He has taken a lot of criticism for his handling of
the war in Russia, but many believe he’s not fully pulling the strings but rather carrying
out Putin’s orders. If the strong military man, a member of the Tuvan minority group from Siberia,
manages to take control, it could lead to a similar situation to when Joseph Stalin
was replaced by Nikita Kruschev - the United States would get a new Russian
leader who was less overtly cruel, but more effective at the larger geopolitical game.
It’s likely that the war in Ukraine and the larger conflict wouldn’t end,
but would rather enter a new stage - one where Russia might be more willing to take its time.
But a coup is a dangerous prospect - and it could trigger a chaotic power struggle.
There are a lot of people who would love to take over once things boil over into total chaos - and
the removal of Putin could cause a mass public revolt that would lead to a full change of regime,
similar to the way Mikhail Gorbachev’s liberalization led to a coup attempt and
ultimately the rise of Yeltsin and the fall of the Soviet Union. If a coup leads to a
vulnerable Shoigu in charge, he could soon find himself displaced by a more democracy-friendly
leader like moderate Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, or even imprisoned opposition leader
Alexei Navalny. But both these scenarios, while ideal outcomes, are highly unlikely.
Coups are times of chaos - and chaos favors wolves.
One figure who might be looking to take advantage of the chaos is the most ruthless and brutal of
Putin’s warlords - the Chechen commander Ramzan Kadyrov. A leader of the Muslim minority group
that Putin brutally repressed earlier in his reign, Kadyrov has taken command of the region
and is fiercely loyal to Putin - while going far further than him in his rhetoric towards the
West. In recent weeks, he’s called for invading Poland once Ukraine is conquered - the definition
of wishful thinking. While Kadyrov is one of the most dangerous of Putin’s inner circle,
he would likely have trouble building the support needed to become Russia’s first Muslim leader.
It’s more likely he would seek to be a kingmaker - in exchange for more concessions to Chechnya.
And there might be one figure who has even him beat in brutality.
Unlike the other contenders to replace Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin isn’t a Russian
official - in fact, he’s a private businessman. And despite that, he’s one of the most powerful
men in Russia as the head of the Wagner Group - a massive mercenary company that has been doing
much of the heavy lifting in the war in Ukraine. Prigozhin doesn’t have many of the advantages
of the other leaders, as he’s unlikely to be trusted enough by any coup leaders. But what
he does have is a massive private army that may only be loyal to him - and if he’s able
to take advantage of a chaotic situation to stage a military coup, the largest nuclear
arsenal in the world would fall into the hands of a mercenary known as secretive and ruthless.
So a healthy Putin might be a terrifying prospect to anyone
hoping to see a quick end to the war in Ukraine - but a sick Putin might lead
to much worse scenarios ranging from optimistic, to downright apocalyptic.
For more on the state of the war, check out “Honest Look at the State of Russia’s Military”,
or watch “Why Are Russian Senior Officials Mysteriously Dying” for
more on the cloak-and-dagger struggle for power.