LARRY KUDLOW IS NOW.
♪.
LARRY: HELLO, FOLKS, WELCOME TO
"KUDLOW," I’M LARRY KUDLOW.
SO ALL EYES ON THE FED TODAY AND
THEY RAISED THEIR TARGET RATE BY
75 BASIS POINTS AS EVERYONE
EXPECTED BECAUSE THEY LEAKED IT
TO "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" ON
MONDAY BUT HERE’S THE WORST
ECONOMIC NEWS TODAY BY FAR,
RETAIL SALES UNEXPECTEDLY FELL,
OKAY?
THEY JUST DROPPED.
THE GDP TRACKER FROM THE ATLANTA
FED FOR THE SECOND QUARTER IS
NOW 0.0%.
REMEMBER, Q1 ACTUAL, WAS DOWN
1.5%.
ARE WE IN A RECESSION RIGHT NOW?
WELL WE COULD BE.
I DON’T KNOW EXACTLY BUT THIS IS
MIND-BLOWING QUOTE FROM THE
FED’S PRESS RELEASE TODAY.
I READ IT TO YOU.
OVERALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO HAVE PICKED UP AFTER
EDGING DOWN IN THE FIRST
QUARTER.
WELL, HUH, REALLY?
SOMEBODY’S WRONG HERE.
EITHER FALLING RETAIL SALES FROM
THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT ARE
WRONG OR JAY POWELL IS WRONG.
THEY CAN’T BOTH BE WRONG.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MY CAREER
I’M BETTING ON THE COMMERCE
DEPARTMENT.
HIGH INFLATION ALWAYS ENDS IN
DIFFICULT RECESSIONS.
THIS TIME AND WILL BE NO
DIFFERENT.
SORRY TO SAY.
I DON’T KNOW WHAT THE FED IS
GOING TO DO IN THE MONTHS AHEAD
PARTLY BECAUSE THE FED DOESN’T
KNOW WHAT IT IS GOING TO DO IN
THE MONTHS AHEAD, HAVING
COMPLETELY MISSED HIGH INFLATION
STORY IN THE FIRST PLACE THE FED
NOW SAYS INFLATION REMAINS
ELEVATED, REFLECTING, YOU GOT TO
LOVE THIS, SUPPLY AND DEMAND
IMBALANCES RELATED TO THE
PANDEMIC, HIGHER ENERGY PRICES
AND BROADER PRICE PRESSURES.
I KEEP LOOKING IN THEIR NOTES
FOR THE STATEMENT, WE WERE
WRONG.
WE BALLOONED THE MONEY SUPPLY,
M2 BY 40%.
WE BOUGHT NEARLY 2/3 OF THE
BONDS SOLD BY JOE BIDEN’S
2 TRILLION-DOLLAR RESCUE PACKAGE
AND THAT WAS A HUGE MISTAKE, AND
ALL THAT IS WHAT CAUSED
INFLATION.
I KEEP LOOKING FOR THAT BUT I
DON’T SEE IT.
SO I’M GOING TO ASSUME THAT THEY
ASSUME THIS IS SOME KIND OF A
IMMACULATE MIRACLE THIS
INFLATION.
WE’LL CALL IT IMMACULATE
INFLATION.
IT HAS NO REAL CAUSE BUT SOME
KIND OF A GIFT FROM HEAVEN BUT
NOT EVER OUR FAULT.
WHICH LEADS ME TO NOMINATE
JAY POWELL AS THE JOE BIDEN OF
THE FEDERAL RESERVE.
THAT’S RIGHT.
ONLY THING MISSING POWELL SO FAR
HASN’T BLAMED MAGA TRUMP FOR
INFLATION.
THAT IS WHAT HE DOES WHEN HE
BLAMES TRUMP AND VLADMIR PUTIN
FOR EVERYTHING THAT AILS OUR
COUNTRY.
I KIND OF LIKE THE
"NEW YORK POST" EDITORIAL THIS
MORNING, AND I QUOTE, BIDEN
PUMPS OUT MORE ECONOMIC BALONEY,
END QUOTE.
WELL-DONE, POST.
I THINK JAY POWELL’S PUMPING OUT
SOME BALONEY ITSELF WE ARE IT UP
TO ME, NICE AND SIMPLE.
RAISE THE FED TARGET RATE A FULL
PERCENTAGE POINT EVERY MEETING
UNTIL THE INFLATION COMES DOWN
SUFFICIENTLY.
SEE IF THE TRUE VALUE OF THE
DOLLAR IS RISING, NOT JUST
AGAINST OTHER EASY MONEY
CURRENCIES BUT AGAINST REAL
ASSETS HISTORICALLY THE BEST
MEASURE OF MONETARY VALUE.
SO FAR WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SUSTAINED DROP IN.
COULDS.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
HOW IMPORTANT IT SHOULD BE NOT
SIMPLY REDUCE ECONOMIC DEMAND
BUT TO INCREASE ECONOMIC SUPPLY,
LIKE, FOR EXAMPLE, FOSSIL
ENERGY.
BUT ALSO WITH BIDEN ATTACKING
BUSINESSES OF ALL KINDS AND
THREATENING TO RAISE THEIR TAX
BURDENS WHY SHOULD FIRMS PRODUCE
NEGATIVE?
HIGHER TAXES MEAN LOWER
PRODUCTION OF EVERYTHING.
LOOK OUR MENTOR, ART LAFFER
ALWAYS SAID TAX SOMETHING MORE
YOU WILL GET LESS OF IT.
THAT IS HOW DUMB CORPORATE TAX
HIKES WOULD BE RIGHT NOW BUT
BIDEN IS TOUTING THAT.
THIS IS A MOMENT WHERE IF
ANYBODY IN WASHINGTON WANTED TO
REALLY AVOID OR MITIGATE A FED
OF INDUESED RECESSION, WE WOULD
BE SLASHING TAXES AND
REGULATIONS.
I AM GOING TO CALL THAT TRUMP
101.
BUT NO, THIS IS A MOMENT WHEN
JOE BIDEN HAS NOW FORMALLY
DECLARED WAR ON OUR OIL AND GAS
COMPANIES.
BEFORE IT WAS JUST A RUMOR.
NOW IT’S A FACT.
THIS MORNING BIDEN SAID HE IS
PREPARED TO USE ALL REASONABLE
AND APPROPRIATE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT TOOLS AND EMERGENCY
AUTHORITIES TO INCREASE REFINERY
CAPACITY AND OUTPUT IN THE NEAR
TERM.
AND HE WANTS AN EXCESS PROFITS
TAX AS DOES SENATOR RON WYDEN.
NOW THESE ARE NOT TERRIFIC,
BRILLIANT IDEAS.
NEXT THING YOU KNOW, HE IS GOING
TO CALL ON 20,000 NATIONAL GUARD
TROOPS TO ATTACK EXXONMOBIL IN
TEXAS, MAYBE GO AFTER CHEVRON
WHILE THEY’RE AT IT.
BIDEN WOULDN’T USE ANY TROOPS TO
PROTECT SUPREME COURT JUSTICES
AT THEIR HOMES BUT HE MAY BE
READY TO GO AFTER THE PERMIAN
BASIN.
BY THE WAY, THERE IS NO REFINING
CAPACITY BECAUSE BIDEN’S OWN
CLIMATE REGULATIONS ARE
PREVENTING NEW REFINERIES.
HE STOPPED THE XL PIPELINE, HE
WITH DREW PERMITS IN THE ALASKA
AND THE GULF.
>> WON’T PERMIT LNG TERMINALS OR
REFINERS BUT HE IS KEEN TO TAX
THEIR PROFITS.
GO FIGURE, HOW DUMB IS THIS,
WITH NO HELP ON THE SUPPLY SIDE,
THE INFLATION BATTLE WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER FED RECESSION.
I HATE TO SAY THAT.
I DON’T WANT THE OUTCOME BUT
THAT IS HOW IT SEEMS TO BE
STACKING UP.
I KNOW THE CALVARY IS COMING BUT
IT CAN’T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH,
BELIEVE ME.
GO BACK A LITTLE BIT IN TIME,
REMEMBER THE OLD RONALD REAGAN
LINE?
TAKE A LISTEN TO THIS.
>> A RECESSION IS WHEN YOUR
NEIGHBOR LOSES HIS JOB.
BUT DEPRESSION IS WHEN YOU LOSE
YOURS.
[CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]
AND RECOVERY IS WHEN JIMMY
CARTER LOSES HIS!
[CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]
LARRY: [LAUGHTER].
SO FOLKS, PERMIT ME ONE MINOR
POETIC ADJUSTMENT.
JUST UPDATE CARTER AND INSERT
BIDEN.