I know, the title is a pretty questionable statement, but bear with me.
It may look like I am the successor of Kim Jong-un or that I want millions of North Koreans
to continue being treated worse than animals, but trust me, neither of these is true.
By the end of this video, your perspective on this extremely complicated subject will
also change.
If North Korea were to all of a sudden collapse, it would cause an insane humanitarian crisis,
a war would break out, millions within this area, or worse, within this area will die,
and we would possibly not even see a united Korea but instead a stronger China - let me
explain.
It is the -- of December 20--, Kim Jong-un has just died.
The cause and manner of death are not yet clear.
The Kim Family and military commanders tried to reestablish order, but they couldn't.
The North Korean people are in the street protesting.
They are tired of the totalitarian regime.
For everyone, it's clear that this is the end of North Korea as we know it, but what
happens next?
Regional factions form all over the country, led by former elite personnel from the military
or by rebellious individuals.
The former elite members of North Korea know that in a unified Korea, they have no future.
They know they would be charged with crimes against humanity and be thrown in prisons
for life.
Military leaders will probably mobilize reserve forces, leading to as many as 9 million North
Koreans having access to guns.
Resources, such as food and energy will be very scarce.
Keep in mind, that North Korea is a centrally planned economy.
These resources were given to the people through a public distribution plan.
Now, they have to fight and raid other factions and smaller groups in order to get food.
Oh, and there is also no security in the country anymore.
This will become a lawless piece of land.
Tens of thousands will die from conflict and millions from starvation.
Yes, millions.
This famine will be larger than the one from 1994 to 1998, which also killed at the very
least hundreds of thousands.
And this is not even the smallest of problems.
North Korea is estimated to hold between 80,000 and 120,000 political prisoners in their prison
camps, where guards practice extreme brutality.
Former prison guards who defected said that in case of a collapse or crisis, they have
orders to execute everyone, as they need to get rid of all the witnesses.
Tens of thousands die.
And this is not even the smallest of problems.
Alright, it is a pretty big problem, millions have died already but trust me, it gets worse.
Civil war is very likely to break.
Stronger factions will fight each other trying to get back control of the country.
And what is North Korea notorious for?
Weapons of mass destruction, chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
Without a regime in power, almost anyone can get his hands on one of these.
They could use it to eliminate any other rival faction and try to win the civil war, or worse,
strike one of these neighboring countries (yes even this one because they're not really
allies, but we'll talk about this later on) and also mainland United States.
Why would they want to strike other countries?
You'll see when in just a moment, but spoiler alert, some people have crazy ideologies.
And this is not ev - alright this is pretty much the worst thing that could happen - in
North Korea.
On the international spectrum, things could and probably will go worse.
The North Korean consequences we've discussed until now would happen over the span of weeks
or maybe even months.
In South Korea, the consequences can even happen before the North Korean collapse.
Prior to an inevitable total state failure, whoever is still in power could attack South
Korea.
Yes, this is totally possible.
It would be a diversionary war, trying to shift the attention of the North Korean masses
away from the country's internal problems.
Even though North Korea is almost certain to lose this battle, the part north of Seoul
could be greatly affected by North Korean artillery.
If they decide to use weapons of mass destruction, things will be way messier.
Hundreds of thousands or even millions could die.
Nukes have the range to hit Japan and even the mainland United States.
Reportedly, Kim Jong-il told his father, Kim Il-sung: “If we lose, I will be sure to
destroy the Earth.
What good is the Earth without North Korea?”.
So, personally, despite the U.S missile defense system's capability of intercepting nukes,
I wouldn't feel so safe even across the ocean.
Admittedly, a diversionary attack has slim chances of happening.
However, The Republic Of Korea is far from safe.
Brainwashed rebels or different factions led by regime loyalists along the DMZ could attack
South Korea.
As I said, North Koreans are indoctrinated and brainwashed to believe that the US is
the ultimate enemy of the North, and that the South is just a US puppet.
So why not live your final days trying to do as much harm as possible to the so-called
"devil".
Either way, South Korea will need to mobilize military troops to the border to prevent such
groups from harming civilians.
So, you've got dangerous factions at the border trying to kill their biggest enemy.
What else?
Millions of refugees.
It is estimated that between 1.6 and 3.6 million North Korean refugees would try and cross
the DMZ - and that's a very big problem.
Firstly, many would die trying to cross the border, because this area is full of landmines.
Also, some of them might get shot by the dangerous factions roaming the border or by the North
Korean army, because they will be seen as traitors, trying to join forces with the ultimate
devil.
Despite this, many North Koreans will successfully cross the DMZ.
Without money and unable to find food and shelter, the South Korean government will
have to take care of them.
But, after the wave of refugees reaches the big metropolitan areas of South Korea, it
would be difficult for the government to identify all of them.
Some, still scared of South Koreans because of the decades of indoctrination will try
to hide and blend it with the general population.
Others will try and find jobs in order to survive.
Unfortunately, many, will turn to criminal activities.
Remember, most North Koreans perform such illicit activities every day.
Using the black market, for example, is saving lives in North Korea.
This wave of refugees is certain to bring some sort of criminal activities to the south,
which would upset and scare many South Korean citizens.
This will lead to discrimination, maybe even protests and the social and economic impact
would shock the South.
One solution to all of this may be to house all of the refugees in the region south of
the border, but sheltering, feeding, and supervising all of them would be logistically very difficult
and it would take a lot of time for the U.S and South Korea to organize such a big refugee
camp.
Time, which in this case is extremely valuable, because while all of this happens south of
the DMZ, China is already in North Korea.
China needs North Korea.
China, ultimately, wants to protect its own national interest regarding the Korean Peninsula,
which are: stability, no nukes, and the thing that China fears the most: North Korean collapse.
Why?
Because millions of refugees will try to cross the border, therefore creating a lot of socio-economic
problems in China, especially in the south of the region known as Manchuria, which is
home to a lot of ethnic Koreans.
It's the same story as in South Korea.
But most importantly, China will lose the buffer zone and U.S troops will advance to
its border in case of unification.
This is China's greatest fear.
They want to stay as far as possible from American influence, and having thousands of
U.S troops across their border in case of a unified Korea, would certainly not help.
But in our scenario, North Korea collapsed.
Their greatest fear regarding the North Korean peninsula may become reality.
So, what are they going to do?
Intervene.
They will need to intervene in North Korea.
From here on, the possibilities are vast.
They may logistically support a certain faction winning the civil war, saying that they are
the true government of North Korea, and thus trying to create a Chinese puppet state in
the North.
Or, they could try to rush to Pyongyang, trying to stabilize North Korea in the process, but
ultimately the siege of the North Korean capital would give them an advantage in bargaining
in the post-collapse negotiations.
After this point, again, the options are limitless, they could just leave all of the North Korean
territories to the South, which is unlikely, or they could leave it to South Korea, if
they agree on certain conditions, such as demilitarizing the Korean peninsula of U.S
troops.
Or, they could annex a part of the North, or install a puppet government.
As I said, the options are vast.
That's why, there needs to be a collaboration between South Korea, the United States, and
China.
Keep in mind, that there is a high possibility that weapons of mass destruction get in the
hands of former military elites, rebels, or worse, foreign terrorist groups.
Both the U.S, South Korea, and China need to locate facilities where such weapons hide
and siege them in order to ensure international safety.
They need to follow a strict plan WHEN the collapse happens.
This way, if both the U.S and China agree on what each nation should do, they could
avoid collateral damage in the first place, which can escalate to something much worse,
and also ensure international safety.
Only through collaboration, can South and North Korea achieve unity.
But is unification even a good idea?
This question is hard to answer, especially in a couple of sentences.
On one hand, it would be very, very, very expensive and therefore the economy of the
former Republic of Korea would take a shocking hit.
In addition, the social, cultural, and political views of the 2 countries are different, and
these aspects would create a lot of national instability.
On the other hand, even though these consequences are almost inevitable in the case of unification,
many South Korean still want it to happen, because of, family, public opinion, historical
reasons, or simply moral code.
But as we've discussed in this video, after a potential North Korean collapse, unification
is not a clear outcome.
Instead, there is a lot of uncertainty.
Millions could die, or, just hundreds of thousands, or hundreds.
We don't know.
And that's what's scary.