-Donald Trump was indicted on June 8.
We got a sense for the 37 charges against him on June 9.
And on June 13, he was processed in court for the first time
on federal charges
relating to his retention of and failure to return
classified documents sought by the U.S. government.
We didn't really get a sense for what happened in the courtroom
because communications were prohibited inside the building,
but we did see Trump afterwards go to a café in Miami
and interact with supporters there.
-Food for everyone. Food for everyone.
[all cheering]
-We also saw him hold a rally
in which he echoed many of the themes,
the idea that he was being persecuted
by the Justice Department in this case.
-Don't forget, this persecution is being done
by the same weaponized agencies.
-And really what we got a sense for
was that Trump intends to fight this not only in a court of law,
but in the court of public opinion,
where that could be the most important verdict
given how long these court cases can last.
There's little question from Donald Trump's first indictment
that there can be something
of a rallying effect after this happens.
We saw the indictment in Manhattan.
Since then, Donald Trump has expanded his lead
in the Republican primary to more than 30 points.
The question from there is, one,
do Americans, including some Republicans,
feel that these charges
are more serious than the ones in Manhattan?
And relatedly, do we see a backlash
among the more general electorate?
Do we see independents turn away from Trump
in a way we haven't seen before?
I think if you look at polling,
you do see that people generally regard these charges
as being more serious.
About 6 in 10 or more Americans say
that these charges are serious, including 4 in 10 Republicans.
And we also see a situation in which many people --
about half of Americans --
say that they would not vote for Donald Trump
if he is charged and convicted of a crime like this.
And so much depends upon the court case that lies ahead.
We could see him very well win the Republican nomination,
even if he has indictments hanging over his head.
But it does seem to be something that the American public,
by and large, are concerned about.
And we should emphasize that Donald Trump and his party
have effectively lost the last three campaigns,
and so anything that damages him further
could prove to be very difficult for the party moving forward.
What we saw after Trump's indictment
was basically what we saw
after the search of Mar-a-Lago back in August,
which is that Republicans
rather reflexively decided to support him.
They decried the process.
-In that indictment, and looking at the selective omissions
of both fact and law.
-And if we don't believe that the DoJ
is gonna enforce the laws equally
between the two political parties,
that's even more serious than the charges themselves.
-What we've seen since then,
especially around Trump's court appearance,
is that certain Republicans are starting to raise concerns
about the gravity of the charges.
They've talked about how if they're proven,
it would be a really serious offense.
-If even half of it is true, then he's toast.
-Even some very conservative House members have indicated
that they would not support Trump
if he is ultimately convicted.
-Would you feel comfortable with Donald Trump
as president again?
-Well, I would not feel comfortable
with a convicted felon in the White House,
so we'll we'll see how the place plays out.
-So we start to see some cracks
in the Republican defenses of Trump,
but at the same time,
the overwhelming focus has been on the process
and about the idea that Donald Trump
is being persecuted by the Justice Department.
And we should expect that to be the overriding takeaway,
at least until we start to get more details
about how this case is going to proceed.
There's no question that while the first indictment
did not damage Trump politically,
including the general election,
where he has remained competitive
with Joe Biden in the early polling,
there is something to be said
for the multiple indictments that he now faces,
the possible inclusion
of an indictment in Fulton County, Georgia.
There is still Special Counsel Jack Smith's investigation
related to January 6
that could feasibly lead to some charges.
And so I think what we've seen
from certain Republicans, at least,
is the idea that all of this hanging over Donald Trump
and hanging over the party in 2024
is not an ideal set of circumstances.
And so the choice for Republicans
is even if they do believe that this is a situation
in which Donald Trump is being targeted,
do they stand by him with the knowledge
that this could ultimately hurt their efforts,
electorally speaking?
And the more that we see these indictments pile up,
the more that we see
the actual evidence come out of these cases,
that could be a very difficult question
for the party moving forward.