welcome back everybody to altcoin daily if you hold bitcoin if you hold ethereum if you're in
crypto i implore you watch this entire video i want to give you my worst case scenario i want
to give you another possible scenario there's an 80 chance in my opinion this will happen
if you appreciate our daily content tap the like button if you're new feel free to subscribe we
come at you on a daily basis keeping you informed everything going on in the cryptocurrency market
that's exactly what we're doing today now it's important to note that nobody can predict the
exact future if any of us could we'd be rich and there's two possibilities in my mind where
this market could go one of these possibilities in my opinion has a much higher chance of happening
let's get into this now first of all one two three four five six seven eight nine
if we close this week in the red we and it's a big if we will have nine straight weeks of red
what is causing this we've never seen something like this before a big reason for the downwards
pressure on bitcoin and cryptocurrency i want to remind you of this bitcoin and the s p are still
showing a near 90 percent correlation the majority of the time since the start of the year there's a
lot of things influencing traditional markets it's pulling down all markets especially risk
markets like bitcoin and crypto it's also important to note perhaps many of you were
subscribed to us and around in crypto in 2018 2019 the beginning of last cycle it's important to note
bitcoin is now in a new cycle and we're in the bear market part of it now now traditionally
the bear markets are shorter lasting a year or two and the bull markets are longer lasting
two years to three years if we are in a bear market since we are in a bear market and seemingly
have been in a bear market for several months now finding a low at about 28 000 what i'm looking for
is a retest of the lower support down here and now we need to find the bid important
we cannot lose 28.5 k this early in the cycle if we do it's lights out for price
if we can trade above 31.5 k it's a quick move to 37k if we lose the support of 28k
there's not that much support and it's likely we fall sharp and fast with an eventual recovery
if we can claim 31.5 k it is likely we rally up to 37 resistance now and retest that for
what it's worth given the cycle count and recent high liquidity selloff i give it an 80
chance this is heading towards 37k first so there's a strong chance because we've been
going down for eight nine straight weeks in a row there's a good chance we see a relief
rally first there's a chance that we fall below 28 000 and i'll get into that in just a second
that's my worst case scenario before that let's finish up with reasons that it is likely and very
possible we see a relief rally sooner rather than later bitcoin putting in a huge bullish divergence
on the daily the last time we had something like this happen was in 2021 this could indicate a big
rally brewing now situation is different now of course on the macro level but food for thought
besides this bitcoin's macd has flipped bullish another sign a relief rally is brewing also
looking at some on-chain metrics which has historically signaled the start of a rally
an all-time high 65.4 percent of bitcoin supply has not moved in at least a year
looking over the history this metric is a series of rolling higher highs and higher lows
all eyes are on when this metric macro rolls over as this has historically signaled the start
of a rally zooming out even more bitcoin has entered into a buy zone a range a buy zone range
why because bitcoin has fallen below the two year moving average every time bitcoin has fallen below
a two year moving average we've been in a bear market a big bear market a mini bear market but
historically speaking if you are a believer this has been a great buying opportunity in the long
run the point is if you have a long-term outlook like i do if you have huddle positions for bitcoin
or bitcoin and eth maybe or a select few crypto currencies that you believe in has long term value
and the market just has to realize this if you're selling your bitcoin and ethereum then you're
betting against this chart 1 billion users by 2024 3 billion more users by 2030. so i'm long-term
bullish i think a relief rally is more likely at this point however there's a solid 20 chance
that bitcoin does not hold the 28k support if that happens my bitcoin worst case scenario even though
i believe it's unlikely to happen i'd like to share this scenario with you as unpopular as it
might be for it to get more likely for me bitcoin would have to close below 28.9 k on the monthly
and this is what we're looking at this is the price we're looking at bitcoin could fall to the
next big support level which is the 14k resistance now if it does fall this low to me this would
indicate a longer time period at lower levels before bitcoin eventually breaks the all-time high
if we don't sink this low this early and we do have this relief rally which doesn't look like
much here but it would be big i don't think we'd ever sink this low i don't think this is likely at
all and it would actually be a shorter time before we break all-time highs let me know what you think
about this analysis in the comments below before we get to more altcoins let me take 60 seconds
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2018 2019 2020 the depths of the bear market last cycle you understand that where we are
today fundamentally narratively plumbing infrastructure-wise we're in such
a better spot for crypto specifically ethereum and crypto specifically
bitcoin has gotten stronger with its value prop and narrative but crypto is in such a great spot
consensus collaborates with mastercard on new ethereum scaling solution translation mastercard
is interested in ethereum and mastercard's new product development vp just quoted saying we're
very focused and interested in blockchain and digital assets and certain metrics in ethereum
are even indicating that a rally is on the way ethereum's average fees are at an extreme low
costing traders just 254 per transaction currently this is the lowest heat cost level since july
historically but by no means automatically eat prices rise after average transaction dips below
5 dollars great time to use the ether network and also indicates a rally is potentially brewing and
whether or not this rally happens in the short term or not i truly believe eth will run again
eath produced per year today about four almost five million each produced per year after the
merge which is happening in several months closer to half a million eight billion less cell pressure
per year at current heath price think about that so moving to proof of stake is good for
ethereum's tokenomics if people stake their coins they can't sell their coins anytime soon and there
is now more than 12.7 million each locked in the deposit contract that's over 10.7 percent of the
circulating supply at current prices that's over 22 billion committed to securing ethereum
through staking so the network is strong and it's interesting that many other projects are
showing strength from a fundamental perspective as well solana well this is interesting might
just be solana summer in nft land magic eden is solana's version of open sea and currently their
marketplace daily active users is beating open c so people are using the solana network for nfts
interesting nfts in general i remain long-term bullish i think it's a no-brainer think about it
like this spotify raked in 7 billion 11 million artists average amount of money per artist 600
youtube right here ranked in 15 billion in revenue 37 million channels average per channel 2.47
obviously we're above average here but youtube is notorious for not paying their creators facebook
300 million in revenue average per user 10 cents now nfts this past year 3.9 billion in revenue
just 22 000 creators yet those creators average 174 000 average per creator nfts are a no-brainer
finally my friends if you will be in texas june 7th through 8th this is right before consensus
starts there's another conference decentral austin perhaps you saw us in decentral miami
last year either way we'll be there i encourage you to come check out linked below you can get
30 off tickets with i'll link it below use the code altcoindaily2 to hope to see you in austin
during decentral that's it for me today my friends my name is aaron altcoin daily see you tomorrow