good evening the death toll climbs
everyday by a little more and so does
the urgency around the question how bad
can it get we've seen a leaked document
warning that eneter staff that up to 80%
of the population could be infected in
the next 12 months meaning up to seven
point nine million people might need
hospitalization and even if we ramp up a
hospital bed nursing and ventilator
capacity dramatically how can the system
cope 35 people have now died in the UK
with a total of 1372 positive tests up
from 1140 at this point yesterday the
health secretary has said that over 70
year olds will soon be asked herself
isolate for several months
100 million Europeans in are under
lockdown as countries tighten their
restrictions the entire world is going
through a stress test that just a few
weeks ago belong to the lurid fringes of
dystopian fiction here in Britain
emergency legislation will be detailed
on Tuesday this could be the beginning
of a lockdown this morning the health
secretary confirmed that everyone over
70 would soon be asked herself isolated
at home for up to four months that too
is astonishing his simian Brown the
death toll rises from 21 to 35 in a day
this week the government is stepping up
action promising to increase awareness
with videos like this and to beef up its
powers this response is going to be one
of the biggest challenges that that our
generation faces because the sorts of
measures that are needed are simply not
the sorts of things that you normally
have to contemplate the government will
publish a bill setting out emergency
powers to combat coronavirus in the UK
elderly people and the vulnerable will
soon be asked to stay home for up to
four months people who pose a risk to
public health could be forcibly detained
factories will be asked to make
life-saving equipment for coronavirus
patients and the government may
commandeer private wards and hotels for
NHS care as well as turning operating
theaters into ICU wards these new laws
follow leaked plan
to ban mass gatherings like this one
after London Marathon was postponed this
run in Liverpool chose to go ahead we've
worked with everyone around us the
police the ambulance we've got private
medical teams that look after us and our
information is that at this point in
time it was safe to go ahead and it's
safe to go ahead it's important that
this country doesn't shut itself down
prematurely doing my bit I mean I work
in the in the NHS and we're I'm done
following every guideline I wanted to be
here today I wouldn't have come if he
told me not to come but I've been
watching the news I've been watching
everything I've been doing what I've
been told I'm wearing gloves that I'll
throw away at the end I won't keep so I
can't do more than that but what is
normal will have to change if the
country is to stay ahead of the pandemic
next week government's plans will have
major implications especially for their
elderly who face increased isolation
clearly since our top priority is to
protect life and that means protecting
the vulnerable and protecting the NHS so
that it can be there for us this is a
this is what one of the measures that's
in the plan
attention is also turning to NHS
capacity the government has admitted
they cannot guarantee that everyone who
will need a ventilator can get one and
is now urging manufacturers to help
produce critical machinery for their NHS
as part of a national effort unseen
since war times the government is also
under renewed pressure to finally expand
testing as the Scottish Government
announced that they will be increasing
surveillance what we are doing is
increasing our community surveillance
testing that will cover about 1.2
million and that gives us an idea of the
size of the virus in the Scottish
population alright but politicians are
not the only ones planning for the worst
as stockpiling or food continues
ahead of next week's new powers this is
the picture the government was trying to
avoid well this program has seen a
document indicating that not all
healthcare and other essential workers
with symptoms will be tested because
there simply isn't the capacity to do
some testing prioritized in order of
clinical need public health England say
they weren't comment on the contents of
a leaked document and it is still
subject to ongoing discussions or
joining me now is Victoria McDonald our
health and social care correspondent
Victoria these numbers are truly
alarming and they will allow many of
those watching the programme put them
into context please well they were
working on an assumption that 80% of us
might get coronavirus now that is an
awful lot of people they also say that
7.9 million people may end up in
hospital and the hospitals just will not
be able to cope as well as all the
people are at home who've got a cough
actually interesting figure is that 10%
of the population will have a cough at
the time of the peak covered 19 anyway
they say public health England in this
document circulated to senior NHS staff
they say they have 4,000 lab testing a
day available currently they want to
expand that to 10,000 but if you think
there are 2.5 million health and social
care workers in this country you can see
the problem so they're going to they've
put it in order they're going to test
people who are in critical care with
pneumonia those who are coming into
hospital with pneumonia and then
clusters or our outbreaks or maybe if
there is an outbreak in a nursing home
the only exception they might make is if
they need say a super specialist surgeon
who needs to do some life-saving surgery
and as currently at home with the cough
they might expedite that but this will
worry a lot of health care workers who
will be in the frontline and be worrying
about their own safety and their
family's safety Victoria thank you very
much indeed like yesterday we asked for
an interview from the health secretary
or a minister from the department to
come on to this program none was
available so across the world country
after country is self isolating as
government's closed borders stopped
flights and enforced lock downs of day
to day life yesterday Spain Denmark and
Norway pulled up the drawbridge today
Germany here the Foreign Office has
updated its travel advice warning people
against visiting certain countries this
morning it added the United States to
the list 24 hours after Donald Trump
said that all flights from Britain would
stop so far the FCA is still not
advising against travel to France while
Italy has recorded another 368 deaths in
just one day worse than the deadliest
day in wuhan his many stephenson Milan's
motorways deserted
Parris eerily quiet Venice empty around
the world countries closed as more than
a hundred million Europeans are now
living in lockdown in the last hour
Italy announced they have had 368 more
deaths in a day as the nation
desperately tries to build new intensive
care units to Spain where they woke up
to their first day of their new normal
people only allowed to leave the house
to buy food and medicine once mundane
weekly shops now stockpiling as the
country enters a 15-day state of
emergency and welcome to the future
police fly drones in Madrid telling
people to stay at home as deaths from
the corona virus more than doubled in a
day
288 people have now died in Spain in
France cafes restaurants cinemas and
gyms closed as the polls opened for
local elections voting in a more
vulnerable looking Paris as president
macarons said lockdown would continue
for weeks only a few hours ago many of
our fellow citizens were still at
terraces or cafes living as if nothing
had happened
we told them simply that this is no
longer possible it's stupid you're
making a mistake because you're exposing
each other as Germany is set to close
its borders to France Switzerland and
Austria where the Austrian government
have now banned gatherings of more than
five people while nobody is going
anywhere fast
in Chicago arriving two hours of queues
for medical screenings at airports in
Dallas no sign of social distancing here
passengers waited to have their
temperatures taken as president Trump's
coronavirus test results arrived back
negative and then there are those who
want to get home but can't in Morocco
they've canceled flights to and from 25
countries as the British ambassador to
Morocco had these words we will get you
home but it will take some time if you
see an available
flight I cannot advise you strongly
enough to get on it and if you're in the
UK and thinking of traveling to Morocco
please don't while on board a cruise
ship where at least five people have
coronavirus stranded 600 passengers most
of them British as the crew frantically
searches for somewhere to dock so far
refused entry at several Caribbean ports
in LA they're queuing to panic by guns
but at this festival of Mexico
what coronavirus pandemic temperatures
were taken on arrival in Russia some
hopes for healing kissing religious
relics and in Dublin they continued to
dance through the corona crisis in the
temple bar clubs today The Hangover
those it turns out were last orders the
government announcing all pubs in
Ireland will now close after the party
the deep-clean begins Minnie Stephenson
while joining me now from Yorkshire is
the former director of maternal and
child health at the World Health
Organization and now professor of global
health at UCL professor Antony Costello
thanks for coming on the program
professor Costello when you look at the
numbers in the UK now when you look at
the numbers in Italy and when you
remember what the numbers were like in
China are we going to be Italy in two
weeks from now yes
look you can't fight a virus if you
don't know where it is the basic
principles from the w-h-o is that you
find tests isolate and treat every case
to break the chains of transmission and
the UK policy is worrying because they
seem they announced at the press
conference that they're going to stop
population testing that's crazy that's
not going to delay the epidemic it's
going to accelerate it and we will
certainly be in the same situation as
usually whether it's ten days or two
weeks or further we can argue about now
I don't have any problem with worrying
or arguing about social distancing and
mass gatherings and
and the timing of that but we must be
getting the data on what's happening and
everything in the w-h-o report from
China is doable here why not we do it so
I called you sir what should government
be doing now then they should be
mobilizing the country they should be
setting up mobile testing centers they
should get the test result down like
China from 12 days to 3 days you've got
to identify family clusters get them
isolated look after people that can't
look after themselves in isolation
centers get CT scans out into the
communities or into populations where
they can get to them quickly if they've
got pneumonia and you've got a you know
and obviously do the treatment that the
NHS can provide but we've got to prevent
and we can get this down it's worked in
China it's worked in Korea it's worked
in Singapore giving up now and saying
well we're just gonna let this rip okay
it's gonna write closer could why is it
not working in Italy then for instance
well because firstly I'm not quite sure
why the it all focused around Lombardi
whether they got a number of super
spreaders in or whatever
but I don't know enough about what
they're actually testing that they're
trying to cope like China did with the
explosion of cases in Wuhan and when
they realize they've messed up they put
in place all with this structure I've
described and it took them seven weeks
but after seven weeks they had it under
control
and more if it is gonna flare up again
when they loosen things they've got a
nationwide system in place got the data
they've got the mechanisms and they can
loosen it gently and then dampen it down
again ultimately we need a vaccine and
vaccine causes creates herd immunity not
a disease that's gonna kill 400,000
people so we've got to mobilize our
country and I thought that's what they
were preparing over the last month okay
sorry running out of time let me ask you
one a one very quick question can we
turn this round at this stage yes or no
yes I think we can
it's gonna take time it'll take two
months at least but why not okay why
Asia Asian countries do it and we con
okay
thank you very much Antonia Costello's
well amid some scenes of panic buying
and empty shelves supermarkets have
asked shoppers to be considerate and
refrained from stockpiling so others
aren't left without things that they
need retailers say that they are working
with the government and supplies to
avoid shortages but are they prepared
joining me now is Tim Lang who's
professor of food policy at City
University in London professor Lang
thanks for coming on the program the
government has said that that the supply
chains are guaranteed the supermarkets
will not run out of food do you believe
those guarantees no but I understand why
they're saying it because they're saying
it on normal conditions the public
doesn't really realize over the last 40
years or so there's been a revolution in
the food system we don't have storage
there aren't warehouses or not like they
used to be with months of food it's all
just in time the food system has
borrowed from Toyota cars a system of
literally having the food arrived at the
supermarket back-office just in time
that's very easy to disrupt that's not
me saying it that's all the gist
experiments know that so they need us to
carry on behaving as normal now listen
to what Tony Costello from UCL was
saying just before me we're actually
having to do catch-up on planning
Britain actually used to be very good at
food planning but it was rolled back and
run down we need to think about that
later but right now we need to actually
recognize there's a mismatch going to
happen between supply and demand
okay well given everything you've said
should we now then have organized
stockpiling no because the system can't
deliver it look Britain I've just
written a book it's not out yet but it's
how very soon called feeding Britain
where I've just gone through and it was
written before coronavirus but looking
ahead and looking at the present
insecurity of Britain Britain
only produces about half of its own food
you know actually last year it was 53%
previous year 51 50 49 it runs out we
are heavily dependent on food that comes
across the channel through the tunnel
and and the government has been playing
posturing with that the reason with No
Deal brexit the reason I raised that
Breck's it's happening is because the
government's own internal figures and
the own internal advice said prepare
this is very dangerous log ah just
briefly one final question one final
question to you what should the
government be doing now especially since
borders all over Europe are closing in
20 seconds
that's right they've got to actually set
up a food planning committee they are
now beginning to talk more widely with
the food industry I worry that they're
dumping responsibility onto the
retailers I sometimes call the default
British through policy leave it to Tesco
at all this is not a good policy
government must get a grip and actually
it's beginning to do that a little bit I
hear the arguments going on from my
public health colleagues but that's not
happening influent they're relying on
the food industry to deliver when
actually the food industry probably
can't okay Tim not gonna leave it there
thank you very much indeed
well churches mosques and other
religious organisations say that they're
making plans to protect worshippers from
putting services online or on audio
books to strict limits on numbers and
there are many concerns about how
elderly people will manage over a long
period of isolation at home but the
answer lie in local communities rallying
around his Jordan Jerrod Brian
[Music]
in an unsettling period for most many
turns of faith we are concerned and
there is fear in the air at this service
in West London numbers were low
even if belief is strong precautions are
being taken with deliberate spacing
between those who did attend but here
faith matters and is needed now more
than ever
well this is the point at which
communities really step up so faith
communities churches in particular but
all families all other things that bind
communities together
so church I was in last Sunday for
example the priest at the front
announced the idea that people might
buddy up with one another and just make
sure that they had actually got their
phone numbers that they were calling
each other but popping an email whatsapp
groups all those sorts of things that
people are now able to use and for much
of the congregation their reliance on
their communities may well be tested
with many over the age of 70 the
government's warning of self isolation
is one that's not ideal but understood
bit tricky but I've got to do it I've
got to do it would say you'll do that
doesn't work yeah yeah how would that
impact you in life how would that impact
you you know Oh hurry me the read
program program are endlessly
horrendously but it might have to be
done I think in this case it behooves us
all to pay attention for our own sake
but also for the sake of others because
people may say well I don't mind if I
get it I'm not going to last much longer
anyway but it's the knock-on effect on
other people well it sounds like an
absolute nightmare because I think what
we all need to do at this sort of time
is to draw together with those we love
our families and love is a stronger
medicine I think we all just need to
grow up and take responsibility for
ourselves but it's not only the elderly
who may be missing out on mass with more
and more stringent measures being
imposed it could be
a matter of time before religious
gatherings canceled altogether we'll see
whether or not smaller gatherings and
and churches do have to stop gonna stop
meeting and if they do then we are
attempting to put in place things and we
already have things like the
live-streaming and the other ways of
reaching to people offering prayers
through the internet and that kind of
thing to be able to reach people who may
need resources to be able to keep
praying and keep carrying on
[Music]
the coronavirus seems set to empty
places of worship but even if isolated
those who believe will remain united in
their faith and in just a few weeks
we've entered a new reality there are
millions of Britons aged over 70 who
could soon be asked to live in self
isolation perhaps for as long as four
months joining me now is Caroline
Abraham's who is the charity director at
Age UK Caroline this is an astonishing
fact that has just been confirmed by the
government this morning how will those
millions of people and how many millions
are there by the way cope with this
well we're yet to really know and of
course some people are better place to
cope with it than others so if you're
lucky enough to have a very good and
strong family around you people living
nearby then I'm sure you know you can
know this is scary and and an unwelcome
whoever you are you can see a way
through it and of course the people we
worry about all those who don't have
family around them who perhaps don't
know their neighbors who are
particularly vulnerable and I think that
means we're going to have to put in
place very quickly a strong local
infrastructure to support them how many
people are there in this country age 7
to your older uh well I don't want to
get the stat wrong there's certainly 5.5
million oaks 75 so I mean that there are
a lot of people basically we're probably
talking Ivan's get the staff in my next
interview is probably something like six
or seven million at least though so
that's a lot of people okay so what
should the government be doing what
should communities be doing because we
always talk about you know crisis of
loneliness amongst the elderly and this
is going to make that seance worse isn't
it potentially of course it could
although alternatively if we do all
rally round it might be the beginnings
of an answer to loneliness that we've
been looking for for some time as far as
older people are concern I think the
first thing that has to happen is that
government does have to clarify quite
quickly in the next few days exactly
what this means so does this mean that
you're not allowed to have anyone come
into your house over that period or your
home I've read that one or two
suggestions today that it doesn't what
you know and does that mean you're not
allowed to go out
also I have a friend for example who
lives in a deeply rural village in
Oxfordshire who's five minutes away from
walk from her allotment and she doesn't
see anyone on the way or on the way back
is she allowed to go to her allotment or
not so these are huge numbers of really
practical nitty-gritty questions and I
think the government needs to
communicate to people about very soon
and then once we know exactly what the
what the arrangement needs to be then we
can start making sensible arrangements
but it's absolutely bound to need all of
us as individuals to step up and to be
good friends to the peaks of the other
people around us offering to collect
shopping and collect medicine as those
sorts of things okay and in ten seconds
what can you tell elderly people
watching this programme tonight in terms
of reassurance don't panic we'll get up
get through all this all together it's
not going to happen absolutely straight
away I mean we'll prepare and we're all
gonna be there to support you leave it
there Karla Abraham's thank you very
much indeed
now National Health Service GPS are very
much on the front line of the fight
against the spread of this virus one
West London doctor recorded a diary of
her experiences over the past week as
guidance and practice on dealing with
patients has steadily changed watches
four days ago we decided that we needed
to achieve reduce the risk of spread of
kovat 19-2 patients and staff and to
protect our most vulnerable patients so
we changed all our face-to-face
consultations to telephone consultations
and we're still bringing in some
patients if we feel that it's necessary
after triage and so this is proven to be
quite difficult for a reception staff
and our admin staff
I've spoken to lots of patients today
who have respiratory symptoms they've
mostly spoken to one on one and if
then eligible for testing for covert 90
they have then called us to ask us to
vote them in for testing but we are just
not able to do that and explaining that
patience has been has been difficult so
if it challenging today I'd speak to a
couple of patients who really wanted to
come in but to explain that we're trying
to protect them and population and our
staff here at the practice so trying to
explain that we were doing things on the
telephone so it's interesting how
different people are reacting some
people are really accepting and
understanding on the telephone
consultation situation and others not so
much
unbelievably we've noticed that this
stuff hams analyzer has been going
missing from our stockroom and so we're
now having to lock it away after work
oops I just wanted to say how strange it
is to see an empty waiting room here at
the practice absolutely unheard of and
yeah definitely makes us all feel like
there's definitely something going on
and changes the whole atmosphere really