The imminent service launch of the Airbus A321XLR is set to shake up the world of narrowbody
operations.
With up to 4,700 Nautical Miles of range, the XLR will be capable of connecting distant
city pairs with low-capacity services.
If all goes as planned, this new jet should be ideal for helping airlines break into unserved
markets.
Boeing does not have anything that can directly compete with the A321XLR.
Its largest narrowbody, which is also not yet in service, is the 737 MAX 10.
Designed for 188 – 204 passengers, it doesn’t quite match up to the 180 – 220 seats of
the A321neo.
And without the extra fuel tanks for the XLR’s ambitious range, the MAX falls short of the
XLR by a substantial 1,500 Nautical Miles.
Darren Hulst, Vice President - Commercial Marketing at Boeing, discussed the niche prospects
of the long-haul single-aisle market alongside the company’s annual Commercial Market Outlook.
Defining long-haul as being over 3,000 miles or 5,000 km, the interesting aspect is that
airlines are not using small planes for long-haul flights any more often today than they were
10 or 15 years ago.
Hulst commented,
“If you look at the single-aisle network, the average distance of single-aisle aircraft
flies has increased over the last 15 years by almost 20%.
So airlines are flying further with their aircraft.
They're just not flying six, eight, nine hour missions on a routine basis, because the heart
of demand continues to be where the single-aisle aircraft are optimized to fly.”
Indeed, Boeing estimates that flights of over 3,000 miles make up just 0.2 to 0.3% of the
entire single-aisle market.
In a way, Hulst is hinting that there’s a limited appeal for a plane like the XLR.
Of the 30,880 narrowbody aircraft projected to be required by 2040, Boeing believes that
the vast majority of those will be standard, run-of-the-mill narrowbodies doing straightforward
short-haul work.
Now that the A321XLR has taken its first flight, airlines are keenly looking for Airbus to
deliver on its promised entry into service projections.
Some 500 of the type are already on order, from all segments of the industry: From low-costs
such as Wizz and IndiGo, up to full-service airlines, including United and Qantas.
Despite this, Boeing doesn’t feel threatened.
Hulst noted that even if the frequencies of long-haul narrowbody flights were to double
as a result, the entire operations would still only be in the region of 0.3 to 0.4% of the
single-aisle network.
Any growth is likely to be further compounded by the fact the entire single-aisle market
will be growing, as Hulst explained,
“Let’s remember that rest of the single market is also going to continue to grow at
historic rates, in many cases at a higher-than-average rate relative to other parts of the market.
“So I think that relationship is largely going to hold because while the aircraft may
have a little bit more capability, there's still the tradeoffs of the lack of baggage
capacity, the lack of cargo capacity and how it doesn't integrate with the rest of single-aisle
or widebody networks.”
“It's definitely an interesting niche, but probably still a fraction of a fraction of
the market.”
Boeing had planned to release a new midsized airplane to replace the 757/767 family.
But, amidst the fallout from the 737 MAX disaster, it shelved the project and is yet to revisit
these plans.
Hulst noted that the XLR may well be used as a replacement for older Boeing aircraft,
commenting that a lot of these airplanes are actually replacements for aircraft like the
757, and others.
While that’s likely a pain point for Boeing, in that it has nothing to offer as a competent
replacement there’s not much that can be done about it now.
Do you think Boeing is underestimating the impact of the A321XLR?
Or is it right that the impact on the single-aisle market
will be minimal?