>>> WELCOME BACK.
AS WE REPORTED, THE DIRECTOR
GENERAL OF THE IAEA, THE
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY
AGENCY, WAS IN TURKEY TODAY
MEETING WITH BOTH THE RUSSIAN
AND UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTERS
AMID RISING KSHS ABOUT THE
SAFETY OF UKRAINE'S NAUK LAR
FACILITIES.
RUSSIA IS IN CHARGE OF THEIR
LARGEST POWER PLANT AND
YESTERDAY THE UKRAINE GOVERNMENT
SAID CHERNOBYL HAS LOST POWER.
THE IAEA ISN'T SEEING CRITICAL
ACTIVITY AT THE PLANT YET.
WE'RE GOING TO BREAK DOWN
RUSSIA'S MOVEMENT.
CLINT WATTS, HOW MUCH OF THESE
FACILITIES AROUND THE COUNTRY,
WE KNOW ONE IS IN RUSSIAN HANDS,
ARE THESE RUSSIAN TARGETS?
>> YEAH.
WHAT'S INTERESTING, CHUCK, IT'S
TWOFOLD.
THIS IS THEY ARE NOBLE UP HERE
TO THE NORTH.
THAT'S THE ONE WE'RE ALL WORRIED
ABOUT BECAUSE THE HISTORICAL
LEGACY OF IT.
POWER GOING OFF THERE, IT SEEMS
LIKE THERE'S VERY LITTLE RISK OF
AN ACTUAL NUCLEAR MELTDOWN, BUT
WE DON'T KNOW, RIGHT?
>> THEY LOST DATA.
THEY HAD DATA THEY WERE GETTING
AND DON'T HAVE IT.
>> THAT'S CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND
WHAT'S GOING ON.
THAT'S THE SECOND PART OF THIS,
WHICH IS FEAR, THERE'S ONE DOWN
HERE, THIS ONE HERE, PART OF
THAT IS SIEGE WARFARE,
MILITARILY.
YOU CAN CONTROL THE POWER, TURN
THINGS OFF AND ON.
BUT SEPARATELY IT'S WHAT WOULD
THEY DO WITH IT?
WE KNOW THE RUSSIANS USE NUCLEAR
THINGS TO STOKE FEAR OR BRING
PEOPLE TO THE NEGOTIATING TAME
OR FOR DISINFORMATION.
THE UKRAINIANS ARE DOING
SOMETHING HERE, A CASE TO
JUSTIFY WHY THE RUSSIAN
POPULATION IS IN UKRAINE.
THAT'S WHY IT'S PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS OVER TIME.
>> TELL IS ABOUT THE RUSSIAN
TROOP MOVEMENTS.
ARE THEY STALLED AGAIN?
IS THIS THE SAME SORT OF SLOW
SORT OF TRYING TO CHOKE KYIV
OVER TIME?
>> YEAH.
SO, TWO PARTS, CHUCK.
DOWN IN THE SOUTH, WHAT WE'VE
SEEN, AND IN PARTICULAR, I THINK
WA I WOULD NOTE IS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART, YOU'RE SEEING
THEM ADVANCE, BUT IT'S A
CATERPILLAR NOW.
THEY'RE MOVING SLOWLY.
WHAT THEY'D LIKE TO GET TO IS
OVER HERE, DNIPRESHGS O.
IT BRINGS ORE ACCESS FROM SUMMI,
CUTTING THE COUNTRY ESSENTIALLY
IN HALF.
THEY'RE MEET MAJOR RESISTANCE
FROM THE UKRAINIANS HERE.
THEY'VE ALSO MOVED HERE.
>> AS FAR WEST AS THEY'VE
ATTEMPTED BECAUSE THEY WOULD
LIKE TO GET ODESA.
>> THEY WOULD LIKE THAT.
THEY'D LIKE TO GET HERE.
>> ARE YOU SURPRISED THEY
HAVEN'T BACKFILLED?
THEY HAD ABOUT 200,000 TROOPS.
THEY'RE ALL IN COUNTRY NOW.
THEY HAVE MORE TROOPS.
ARE YOU SURPRISED THEY HAVEN'T
BACKFILLED AT LEAST HERE IN THE
BLACK SEA?
>> YEAH.
ONE OF THE OPEN QUESTIONS IS
ESSENTIALLY IF THEY CAN GET
RIGHT HERE, IF THEY CAN MOVE ALL
THE WAY THROUGH, SECURE THIS
NORTHERN PART, TAKE THE BLACK
SEA AND ODESA, WHICH IS SUCH A
MAJOR CENTER FOR EVERYTHING,
COMMERCE AND PEOPLE, CAN THEY
BRING THEM IN BY SEA,
ESSENTIALLY LANDING CRAFT, NAVAL
RESUPPLY FROM THE SEA.
I THINK THE BIGGER ISSUE IS WHAT
WAY V THEY'RE DOING IN THE
NORTH.
THIS IS WHERE THEY'RE AT, IN AND
AROUND KYIV.
YESTERDAY WE WERE TALKING ABOUT
THREE AXES OF ADVANCE.
MAJOR FIGHTING HERE AND HERE
TODAY, BUT THEY'RE NOT MAKING UP
MUCH GROUND.
THE UKRAINIANS ARE PUTTING UP
STIFF RESISTANCE.
THIS IS THE CONVOY HERE,
CIRCLING TO THE WEST, BUT
THEY'RE STRUGGLING, CHUCK.
THIS IS INCHING FORWARD.
>> WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT
THESE MIGS AND WHETHER OR NOT TO
BRING THEM IN.
WE KNOW NOBODY HAS CONTROLLED
THE SKIES, NEITHER RUSSIA NOR
UKRAINE.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
>> AND IT'S UKRAINE'S SURFACE TO
AIR THAT HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE SO FAR OF THIS.
WHAT IS THE STATUS?
>> THE RUSSIAN AIR FORCE IS JUST
NOT DOING WELL.
THEY ARE DOING BOMBING RUNS, BUT
THEY'RE FLYING IN LOW ALTITUDES,
COMING IN.
YOU CAN SEE ON VIDEO, THEY'RE
BEING SHOT DOWN LIKE CRAZY.
THEY'VE LOST TONS OF
HELICOPTERS.
>> IS THAT BAD STRATEGY,
INTELLIGENCE, PLANNING?
>> IT COMES DOWN TO WEAPONS
SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEY'RE USING OLD-STYLE WEAPONS,
DUMB BOCK E BOMBS AND MUNITIONS.
THEY HAVE PRECISION-GUIDED BUT
THEY'RE NOT USING IT.
NOBODY KNOWS WHY.
THE U.S. MILITARY, WE ARE VERY
GOOD ABOUT DOING SURGICAL
TARGETING.
THE RUSSIANS DON'T REALLY HAVE
THIS.
>> WE'VE BEEN TOLD FOR LAST TEN
YEARS RUSSIA WAS MODERNIZING ITS
ARMY.
ARE WE LEARNING THIS IS A HOUSE
OF CARDS?
>> I THINK PORTIONS OF IT ARE
MODERNIZED, BUT LOOK AT WHAT
THEY'RE TRYING TO DO.
THEY'RE ATTACKING -- YOU'RE
TALKING ABOUT A COUNTRY OHIO TO
MAINE.
THEY'RE TRYING TO ATTACK FROM
MICHIGAN AND TENNESSEE.
>> THE DOCTRINE -- FORGET THE
WHOLE DOCTRINE.
THEY DON'T SUBSCRIBE IT TO.
>> THEY ARE ALL ABOUT USING MASS
FORCE, ARMORED DIVISIONS WITH
MASSIVE FIRES BUT THEY'RE
HOLDING BACK BECAUSE THEY CAN'T
DO LOGISTICS.
THIS IS THE ONE THING THAT
COMPARED TO WESTERN MILITARIES,
THEY CAN'T DO LOGISTICS THE SAME
WAY.
THEY HAD TROUBLE IN GEORGIA OVER
A DECADE AGO, SAME STRUGGLES
HERE.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THESE CONVOYS
COMING IN, THEY HAVE TWO BIG
ONES HERE, THIS ONE AND THIS
ONE, WHICH KIND OF COMES DOWN TO
KYIV, IT IS A LOGJAM.
AND THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY IS
DOING SUCH A GREAT JOB OF
STRIKING THESE CONVOYS, SLOWING
IT DOWN, BLOWING BRIDGES BEHIND
THE FORWARD ADVANCE.
JUST REMARKABLE FIGHTS SO FAR.
I REALLY THINK THIS MARCH TO
KYIV AND BEYOND, WE'RE TALKING
ONE TO TWO MONTH TOFGS WAY
THEY'RE GOING.
FOR THEM TO SECURE THESE REAR
AREAS, AND IF I COULD ADD ONE
THING, KHARKIV, CLOSE TO THE
RUSSIAN BORDER, THEY'RE MEETING
RESISTANCE AND THE FALSE FLAG
SORT OF CLAIMS.
KHARKIV.
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR