in the run up to the election it's over and it's five thirty eight lac had some
really interesting and it turned out very accurate uh... predictions of what
would happen uh... and now that the elections past he has some interesting
charts first of all over as we anticipate what's gonna happen in future
presidential elections
and while he was a very accurate in his are calling a safety at fifty and fifty
right there was one area that he was wrong and he's admitting to this
so we have a really interesting chart
the points out the mistake he made that mistake was which they would be the
tipping point which would put obama over the hump two two seven electoral votes
he had fought but it was going to your higher when factor was not
but this is not good news for republicans subsection bring up that
chart
briefly explain what it is
what you see here is a list of states based on how much of on the one by so in
the top you sixty i wasn't in d_c_ which she won by at vast majority of votes on
download
the other one way eighty four point zero percent
uh... and so you see goes all the way down to uh... in the very bottom flips
over to mit romney in north carolina
and cc right above that the states world bomb of barely one in ohio and florida
where we thought the election to be determined but it turns out that he
could have lost florida lost ohio lost virginia even installed one just bite
i'm getting colorado
and what the point of this uh... this chart is is that their demographic and
geographic changes happening right now that make the electoral map very unfair
unfavorable to republicans and not just this year but likely in the next two way
race is before we see the census change the electoral map
and so it's interesting here is that while we were worried that obama might
not win the popular vote
even if you do hyatt
in the popular vote
uh... obon still one of one uh... if you have lost forever hi ho going by that we
would have gotten a car or in and virginia
but even if he had lost in the popular vote by up to two points he still would
have won
by using bridging upholding colorado
this is not good for the republicans were in the next year i said no it isn't
good and one of the other things is that there are states now where the democrats
are we always say arizona i still think arizona's a couple of election cycles
away from the democrats but nevada
is now a blue state it's a blue state because of the changing demographic
there the population
it's the union st
of retirees are gone further south
uh... and i seems to me even with the high unemployment in the data
that it's a it's a blue state it's hard to know what the stuff that's silver
said one did it's hard to say
who put him over and of course they campaigned in the state because they
poll closely
so another state could have been that stated indiana was polling closely they
would've been campaigning that in this report
objects o
legislated in this tax
everyone surrounding call canceling swing state
it has never smoke
okay it does not swayed is solidly blue
it won't will for president
everytime
pennsylvania instead uh... around five percent year five point one percent
what is more salt lake north augusta in this election
as you see in that short
firewall new hampshire
nevada
we've read about the maximum excuses lasik it's now at the end
nearly tend to indicate
for the democrats in mexico's log on as a swing state
but my guide nevada new hampshire iowa are are all
all about president more solid democratic
did republicans over massive trouble you see that math doesn't add up to a priest
about where they go now to you know you look at oregon washington which are papa
states there with that would possibly
the fertile for especially oregon for republicans
because the demographic hasn't changed their that much uh... it's sort of fits
into their model little more but they can't even get close in oregon now so
they're going to have been and like the ronnie campaign that went into
pennsylvania a lot of people said oh they're trying to spread
there wins in actually did post script of the running campaign said in fact yes
they thought that they had all heil so they were going to pennsylvania because
they want to take their elect whirlwind even bigger and make it more of a
mandate for themselves that's how deluded they were wrong they were who
want to say it
we all thought they were going there because they thought they didn't have a
chance in ohio we i don't know that we were right they didn't have a jazz in
ohio but they didn't think that soak they don't know where to go that's a big
prize in the big day that's why they were literally as we do this or
yesterday shell-shocked
to find out that everything they fought
was wrong position led the networks not reality
and and when the bubble burst and they met the real reality though
all my god
evolution israel that we have no chance of somebody
notice in new hampshire and what
it makes it a lot less long-time depressed let you go down the list
and make their stung by these numbers yet
but let me give you one more that's a little stuff
bridging you know what the president obama by a larger margin
than the president on the national popular vote
which means that bridge area is more democratic
the average state here it which knows what for st
pero parents opted create ends up at about left behind
years ago
uh... following on from that actually while he did lose north carolina they
have some info here he lost north carolina ben about two points
by contrast in two thousand al gore who won the popular vote outlaw said by
thirteen points
so the meeting that i don't know why any of those and those who say they want to
do that is made that the other state city one million when this time
so absolutely and where they come in for jim and i love that
to democratic senators
this is a state that that's just coming out of tel aviv sylvia
person is a blue state
and so what where did that where you could deliver lovers
and democrat if they want in in that they kept the old confederacy together
did the republicans and of that's their sort of avenue to success and james
jordan's recess
disastrous for that for then so so why is this happening basically and what we
do see populations moving throughout the country
uh... but unfortunately republicans are going to places that don't benefit the
literally like maybe once a census happens you might see some shifts
such in the west
but they're just packing people into tennessee kentucky arkansas
west virginia
i got news for you if you win by two points arguing by fifty points to get
the same number
electoral college coaches that's not helping them
um... so you can to redistribute population and if they can be
inefficient for you
we actually have some interesting uh... information how the democrats are
actually doing a little bit of that so long-lasting the creator permission so
is that it will do all these numbers and
where the ships are happening and how much trouble
deborah real problems earlier
it was screaming from the page
holy changed position with tina was
and women
the social issues and that is a dramatic dramatic shift it's much more dramatic
that eight easy shift to alternative irvine ridgewood yesterday do you think
these that part of the city gather and do that but it becomes something else
that's a really interesting question so on latino issue
colorado in nevada they can begin to
make their way back integrated some happiness latinos
but they're not antiquity ninety eight percent
but in northern virginia
and and either one
in new hampshire
inordinate make their way back in those states
the needed to win
anything in a few of the women to get in trouble this nineteen fifty-five in
eighteen fifty five crappy corner but the problem is that it's one book
on the mental underlying structures of the republican party
so i mean i think it's much easier for them to say if you know what
with that
are bad we we no longer haiti's uh... wittiest was still a black people
okay we saw a case and we saw it once people okay
but we just take listeners up a little they would never say that but yet
i thought that