>>THIS IS MY ELECTION PREDICTION.
I'VE GOT TO BE CLEAR
ABOUT THIS -- OFTENTIMES WHEN I DO A PREDICTION ON ANY GIVEN
ISSUE, ELECTION OR ANYTHING ELSE, I WILL SAY NOW I BELIEVE I
KNOW, AND HERE IS MY ROCK SOLID PREDICTION.
THIS IS NOT ONE OF
THOSE.
THIS IS, WE'VE GOT ABOUT TWO MONTHS TO THE ELECTION, LET
ME GIVE YOU MY BEST GUESS AS TO WHERE WE STAND NOW.
THIS IS AN
INCREDIBLY VOLATILE ELECTION, MOST VOLATILE I'VE EVER SEEN, SO
DO NOT WRITE IT IN STONE.
THIS IS A SNAPSHOT OF WHAT I THINK
THE ELECTION LOOKS LIKE TODAY.
SO THEN WHY BOTHER DOING IT?
BECAUSE I WANT PEOPLE TO HAVE THE PROPER PERSPECTIVE ON THE
REMAINING TWO MONTHS IN THE ELECTION.
I THINK PEOPLE WHO
STILL THINK HILLARY CLINTON WILL WALK AWAY WITH IT, AND
BY THE WAY, THAT IS STILL AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE
ESTABLISHMENT AND THE MEDIA, THEY THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A
CAKEWALK FOR HER.
THEY'VE NEVER MOVED FROM THAT POSITION, EVERY
ONCE IN A WHILE THEY SAY THAT'S INTERESTING, I WONDER -- DON'T
BE RIDICULOUS, IS TRUMP GOING TO BE PRESIDENT?
OF COURSE NOT.
I
DID THE MATH ON IT AND SOME OF THAT IS BASED ON BEASLEY ON
POLLING, AND I LOOK TO SEE NOT ONLY WHERE THE POLLING STANDS
TODAY BUT WHICH WAY IT'S TRENDING, BUT OF COURSE THERE IS
A WHOLE TWO MONTHS LEFT, THEN YOU HAVE TO PUT IN YOUR OWN
POLITICAL INTUITION AS TO WHICH WAY YOU THINK IT WILL TREND
OVERALL AND OBVIOUSLY THE DEBATES ARE AN ENORMOUS
WILDCARD, THEY ARE USUALLY OVERHYPED AND DON'T USUALLY
AFFECT THE NUMBERS THAT MUCH.
IN THIS CASE THEY MIGHT AFFECT IT
DRAMATICALLY, BECAUSE THESE ARE THE TWO MOST UNPOPULAR
CANDIDATES WE'VE EVER HAD, SO WHO WILL COME OUT BASICALLY
ALIVE FROM THOSE DEBATES WHERE THEY PRESUMABLY SWING AT EACH
OTHER ALL NIGHT LONG?
AND GOD KNOWS ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN,
ESPECIALLY WITH A CHARACTER LIKE DONALD TRUMP IN THE RACE.
SO
HAVING SAID ALL THAT, LET ME GIVE YOU WHAT I'VE GOT.
SO
DONALD TRUMP, WHAT ARE THE STATES HE'S GOING TO WIN?
I WILL
GO FROM LEAST TO MOST CONTROVERSIAL, I BELIEVE HE WILL
WIN ARIZONA, HILLARY CLINTON IS TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
IN ARIZONA BECAUSE THERE IS A HIGH LATINO PUBLISHING BUT I
DON'T THINK SHE WILL CLOSE THE GAP.
INDIANA, EASY WIN FOR
DONALD TRUMP, YES BARACK OBAMA HAS WON THAT IN THE PAST IN
2008, BUT I DON'T THINK HILLARY WILL COME CLOSE THERE.
GEORGIA,
SOME TALK OF SHE IS CLOSING IN GEORGIA, SHE WON'T CLOSE.
MISSOURI HE WENT EASILY, NORTH CAROLINA, CURRENTLY HILLARY
CLINTON LEADS IN SOME OF THE POLLING OR MOST OF IT IN NORTH
CAROLINA, I DON'T BELIEVE THAT WILL HOLD.
I THINK IT WILL GO TO
DONALD TRUMP.
AND THEN IOWA, THAT IS A VERY WINNABLE STATE
FOR THE DEMOCRATS BUT I THINK IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT DONALD
TRUMP WILL WIN IOWA.
AND THEN NEVADA, BOY, THAT IS SUCH A
WINNABLE STATE FOR THE DEMOCRATS, BUT RIGHT NOW HE IS
DEFINITELY TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION IN NEVADA, I THINK HE
WILL PULL THAT OUT.
AND VERY IMPORTANTLY, OHIO AND FLORIDA.
I
WILL GET BACK TO THEM IN ONE SECOND, BUT I WILL GIVE YOU THE
LAST ONE FOR TRUMP -- MAINE IN THIS PARTICULAR DISTRICT.
MAIN
VOTES IN TERMS OF CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, THEY SPLIT THEIR
ELECTORAL VOTES, HE IS PULLING AHEAD IN ONE DISTRICT IN MAINE,
HE WILL GET ONE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE THERE ACCORDING TO
MY PREDICTIONS, HILLARY CLINTON WILL GET THE OTHER THREE.
SO
OHIO AND FLORIDA, AS IMPORTANT AS SWING STATE AS YOU COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE, WHY DO I HAVE TROUBLE WINNING THOSE?
FIRST
OFF, CURRENTLY HE IS WITHIN TWO POINTS OF HER IN BOTH OF THOSE
STATES.
AND IN THE PAST HE HAS LED IN BOTH OF THOSE STATES, AND
HE'S TRENDING TOWARDS PICKING UP MOMENTUM IN BOTH OF THOSE
STATES, AND GIVEN THE LATEST ROUND OF POLLING IT'S ALMOST A
STATISTICAL TIE WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR, AND WHEN YOU
LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL TRENDS, EVEN THOUGH BARACK OBAMA HAD A
VERY LARGE LEAD IN OHIO SIX WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION, FOR
EXAMPLE HE HAD A 10 POINT LEAD, EVEN RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION A
SIGNIFICANT LEAD IN OHIO, AND HE ONLY WOUND UP WINNING OHIO BY I
BELIEVE ONE OR TWO POINTS, AND FLORIDA BY ONE OR TWO POINTS AS
WELL.
SO BIG LEADS FOR THE DEMOCRAT DID NOT LEAD TO BIG
VICTORIES, OBAMA WOUND UP WINNING WITH THOSE STATES, BUT
VERY NARROWLY.
HILLARY CLINTON IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR AS POPULAR
AS BARACK OBAMA, OBAMA IN THE LATEST WASHINGTON POST POLL IS
POLLING AT 58%, HILLARY CLINTON NOWHERE NEAR 58%.
OF COURSE
TRUMP IS ALSO UNPOPULAR, BUT HE HAS AN ANTIESTABLISHMENT MESSAGE
THAT CAN RESONATE IN A PLACE LIKE OHIO THAT IS HURTING.
THAT
IS WHY HIS MESSAGE WORKS BETTER IN THE RUSTBELT BUT HAS DONE
STUBBORNLY WELL IN FLORIDA.
SO I'M GIVING HIM ALL THOSE STATES.
WHICH STATES IS HILLARY CLINTON GOING TO WIN?
I BELIEVE SHE WILL
WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE, SHE HAD A 15 POINT LEAD IN NEW HAMPSHIRE A
WHILE AFTER THE DNC BUT THAT HAS NOW SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY, THE
LAST POLL I SAW WAS SIX POINTS, I THINK SHE WILL STILL HOLD ON.
I THINK SHE WILL WIN MINNESOTA EASLEY, MICHIGAN, THESE ARE
SO-CALLED PURPLE STATES FROM TIME TO TIME, I DON'T THINK THEY
ARE VERY PURPLE, DEMOCRATS GENERALLY LOCK THOSE UP EASILY
IN A NATIONAL ELECTION, I BELIEVE SHE WILL WIN NEW MEXICO,
SHE HAS A GOOD LEADER THERE, WISCONSIN, A SIMILAR STORY
THERE.
NOW YOU GET INTO TERRITORY WHERE TRUMP PEOPLE ARE
HOPEFUL, MAYBE WE CAN WIN WISCONSIN IF THEY EXTEND THE
RUST BELT, I DON'T THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN.
AS I TOLD YOU I
BELIEVE SHE WILL WIN THE OTHER THREE DISTRICTS IN MAINE, I
THINK HER LEAD IN PENNSYLVANIA IS TOO LARGE, AT ONE POINT I
THOUGHT HE HAD A GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING IN PENNSYLVANIA.
I
WOULDN'T CALL THAT A LOCK, AND I WOULD HAVE CALLED PENNSYLVANIA A
LOCK FOR DEMOCRATS IN ANY OTHER ELECTION, BUT I STILL HAVE IT IN
HER CATEGORY, HER LEAD IS STILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT I THINK
SHE WILL HOLD IT.
FINALLY THE LAST TWO STATES ARE PROBABLY THE
MOST IMPORTANT.
COLORADO, IT IS A PURPLE STATE, IT CAN GO BOTH
DIRECTIONS, BUT THAT IS WHERE SHE HAS A SURPRISINGLY LARGE
LEAD.
EVEN IN THIS LATE DATE, AS TRUMP HAS CLOSED A LOT OF STATES
DOWN, COLORADO IS STILL AT A 10 POINT LEAD FOR HILLARY CLINTON,
SHE'S GOT TO HOLD COLORADO, THAT'S HUGE.
AND THE FINAL STATE
IS VIRGINIA.
VIRGINIA USED TO BE A RED STATE, THEN IT TURNED TO A
PURPLE STATE, NOW SHE HAS A MORE COMFORTABLE LEAD IN VIRGINIA
THAN SHE DOES IN SOME OF THE MORE CLASSICALLY SWING STATES
LIKE FLORIDA AND OHIO.
THAT'S THE KEY RIGHT THERE, I THINK IF
SHE WINS PENNSYLVANIA, COLORADO, AND VIRGINIA, AS YOU ARE ABOUT
TO SEE, THAT'S JUST ENOUGH.
AND BY THE WAY, I DID NOT LOOK TO
MAKE THIS A CLOSE ELECTION, I DIDN'T LOOK TO DO THE MATH AS I
WAS GOING ALONG, I JUST LOOKED AT THE POLLING AND AGAIN, A
COMBINATION OF MY EXPERIENCE, ETC., AND I PUT THE STATES IN
DIFFERENT CATEGORIES, THEN I TABULATED AT THE END TO SEE WHO
WOULD WIN, AND AS IT TURNS OUT IF I'M RIGHT ABOUT ALL THAT,
HILLARY CLINTON IN A RAZOR THIN VICTORY, 272-266.
IT DOESN'T GET
ANY CLOSER THAN THAT.
WELL, IT COULD GET A TINY BIT CLOSER, BUT
YOU GET THE POINT.
SO -- THIS RACE IS SO CLOSE.
AND ANYTHING
CAN SWING IT.
I MEAN, IT'S GOTTEN WILD SWINGS ALREADY.
TRUMP WAS LEADING BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS, AFTER THE
CONVENTIONS AND AFTER HE PUNCHED HIMSELF IN THE FACE ABOUT 28
TIMES SAYING THE MOST OUTRAGEOUS THINGS, HE WAS LOSING, AND BY A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT FOR A WHILE.
HILLARY CLINTON HAD A NICE LEAD,
NOW IT HAS DIMINISHED, IT'S NOT OVER YET, BUT IT HAS DIMINISHED
GREATLY.
THEN YOU HAD THIS TERRIBLE WEEKEND FOR HILLARY
CLINTON, MY GUESS IS DONALD TRUMP WILL BE UP IN THE POLLS
SOON.
THAT YOU WILL HAVE THE DEBATES.
IF YOU THINK THIS
ELECTION IS OVER, YOU ARE MENTAL.
IT'S NOWHERE NEAR OVER,
EITHER SIDE CAN WIN, YES I FIND THAT TO BE A SCARY THOUGHT, I
THINK ALL AMERICANS DO, BECAUSE THESE ARE THE TWO MOST UNPOPULAR
CANDIDATES WE'VE EVER HAD IN OUR NATION'S HISTORY.
SO BUCKLE UP,
BECAUSE THIS THING IS PROBABLY GOING TO GO DOWN TO THE WIRE.
AND IF THE DEMOCRATS HOLD ON, I THINK IT WILL BE BY THE SLIMMEST
OF MARGINS.