you'd be forgiven for asking what is
going on with the astrazeneca vaccine
in europe in january there were bitter
words about delays in its supply
there was an insistence that the eu
would act as one on vaccines
and president macron questioned how
effective it is for older people
while the european regulator cleared it
for use then in february
it became clear many astrazeneca doses
in the eu
were yet to be used and now in march
some eu countries including france and
germany
have acted on their own and suspended
its use without
waiting for the european regulator
that's prompted this senior global
health researcher to say
the decisions by france germany and
other countries look
baffling now they wouldn't use that word
but this is what's happening and here
are the reasons why some
are baffled last week norway iceland
denmark lithuania latvia
and estonia suspended the use of
astrazeneca's vaccine
a small number of people out of several
million had experienced blood clots
the decision was taken despite the who
and the european medicines agency
both saying there's no evidence of a
link between the vaccine
and blood clots also last week italy
suspended the use of one batch of
astrazeneca
because a soldier had a cardiac arrest
now
it's very rare for a particular batch of
a vaccine to be a particular problem
there was no evidence of a link between
the cardiac arrest and the vaccine
and astrazeneca has run its own tests
and found no issues
now france italy germany spain ireland
and the netherlands
have fully suspended this vaccine's use
here's the german health minister
the german government is suspending
vaccination with astrazeneca as a
preventative measure
this is due to new cases of cerebral
vein thrombosis reported in connection
with the vaccine
now these countries are pointing to
norway where four people
three of whom are under 50 are being
treated in hospital
the medical director of the norwegian
medicines agency says
they have very unusual symptoms bleeding
blood clots and a low count of blood
platelets they are quite sick
we take this very seriously as of course
does everyone but then we have this from
astrazeneca's chief medical officer who
says
around 17 million people in the eu and
the uk have now received our vaccine
and the number of cases of blood clots
reported in this group is lower than the
hundreds of cases that would be expected
among the general population that's
right the rate of blood clots is
lower than we'd expect anyway which is
why some argue
these suspensions are the wrong approach
we have
people dying across europe and cases
going up in many european states
a faltering vaccination program with
high levels of vaccine hesitancy already
and they are not looking at the
downsides of the suspension
once this suspension has happened
rebuilding public trust may be
impossible
now those taking the decision admit they
are being cautious
here's ireland's deputy chief medical
officer who says
it may be nothing we may be overreacting
and i sincerely hope that in a week's
time we're accused of being over
cautious
well we don't need to wait a week for
that it's happening already and the
reason for those accusations of excess
caution
is that these decisions aren't being
taken in a vacuum
as one of germany's leading doctors puts
it the astrazeneca vaccine has a pr
problem not so much a scientific problem
and all of these national regulators in
the eu know very well that this
vaccine's reputation
is an issue look at this headline from
zib 2 news in austria
problem stuff equals problem med in
other words
this vaccine is a problem and these are
pictures from belgium's largest
vaccination center
in february far from busy the guardian
reported that by the end of last month
four out of five astrazeneca jabs
delivered to the eu
had not been used now there are a range
of factors here
but regulators know some people are
reticent to take the astrazeneca vaccine
and they know these suspensions risk
increasing that reticence
they also know there is a cost if these
suspensions
slow the vaccine roll out as natasha
loader from the economist tweets
side effects of the suspension of the
astrazeneca vaccine include
severe to moderate 19 long-term organ
damage
and death the head of the group which
made this vaccine
makes a similar point well i think we
have to balance that
against the huge risks that there are
i've copied and if we have no
vaccination and we come out of lockdown
in this country we will expect tens of
thousands of more deaths
to occur during this year and while eu
member states shift their position on
this vaccine
the uk has administered 11 million doses
and the rollout goes on we continue to
be
very confident about the program and
it's it's great to see it being
rolled out of such such speed across the
across the uk
now the prime minister hasn't criticized
what's being done elsewhere but
not everyone's holding back the former
uk government advisor here says
this is painful to watch and a total
failure of proportionate regulation
the point being that you cannot apply
this level of scientific caution when
your vaccine has a reputation issue
despite it being found to be safe and
effective
and there's a pandemic that urgently
needs to be tamed
there's also criticism of the
fundamental calculation here
some argue that while these symptoms
could be caused by the vaccine
chance is a more likely explanation
here's the statistician
sir david spiegelholzer writing in the
guardian saying it's a common human
tendency to attribute a causal effect
between different events
even when there isn't one present we
watch the car and the next day
a bird relieves itself all over the
bonnet right but the people across
europe taking these decisions
are not me or you looking at a dirty car
bonnet and drawing the wrong conclusion
these are leading medical regulators and
they say their decision
is about confidence building actually
guys
look at this in a way this should
increase your confidence
in vaccination programs what you want is
you want us to deliver
safe programs we are taking every
measure to make sure that that is what
we're doing
perhaps that will work perhaps it is the
best course of action
there is though a risk if building
confidence is the goal
bringing in a raft of suspensions based
on far from conclusive
data may be to use emmanuel macron's
infamous phrase
quasi-ineffective at doing that it's not
hard to imagine confidence falling
because of all these suspensions
and if that happens that will impact the
speed of the vaccine rollout which
in turn will bring a human cost from the
virus
these are the calculations each country
must make