Silver is must have your attention here.
It's the only commodity on planet Earth, its trading below where it
was in 1980, 40 years ago, if we're not at the bottom, I think we're
very close.
This is a great opportunity.
I think what I'm doing with my own money is buying yesterday and I'm
scaling and further today.
So I think they were the mining stocks were pricing in even lower
silver prices than 18.
So, you know, they now I think they're going to start to lead on the
upside the mining stocks had just gotten so so cheap relative to the
actual metal that yet.
I'll be honest with you yesterday, as was kind of my little back up.
The truck moment with where I deployed almost all my remaining cash in
the mining stocks.
And then in my trading account, on initiating some long-dated call
options on S on silver today.
So could we go lower?
Yes, but I think we're pretty close.
So nothing Cosmic on this chart.
I think anyone who looks at charts and technical analysis, is probably
drawing pretty close to the same exact levels here 1975.
That's where we're hovering right at right above right now.
Price is sitting right in 1975.
That was the swing high back in September of 2019.
There was also a gap on this chart.
If you look at the daily chart here, this is a weekly Candlestick but
so this Gap has been filled and the
Morning.
We went down to a low of 1930 and you can see this really strong
support right here, between 1850 and 1890.
Like I said, I don't think we're going to pull back there but we
could, and if we did that, that to me would be the back of the truck
moment for me, personally, when you go to the daily chart for silver
to there's something called positive Divergence.
And, you know, sometimes when I say this stuff, I think some people
might think this is like Technical mumbo-jumbo, and it doesn't really
matter, but it does matter because the banks and the institutions and
the
Ting, algorithms, algorithms.
Look at these kind of things and that's who drives these.
The paper price of these markets on the comex and positive Divergence
happens when price makes a lower low.
Like you can see right here but things like RSI make a higher low.
So you can see the a higher low being formed right here on the RSI.
So that's positive.
Divergence, we also have the commitment of Traders report, then I'll
pull up right here, and the co T is structured in such a way that is
consistent with major lows.
That doesn't mean you can't go a little bit.
Lower.
But the bankers have been covering their short positions and they're
now positioned for a major rally and they tend to be the smart money.
Unfortunately and Retail investors tend to be you know the average
retail investor tends to sell at the exact wrong time and you know the
co T report is suggesting were we're getting very close.
All the evidence is starting to stack up that were close to a major
bottom downside risk.
I would say is you know a dollar or two where the upside potential you
know is forty fifty dollar silver.
So the
Risk reward is heavily skewed to the upside here.
So I guess there's different ways to look at it.
I mean the chart I just showed their commercial.
Net position is not quite net long yet but
I guess there's different ways you can break down the internals of the
commitment of Traders report.
But regardless of how you look at it, the banks are positioned.
This is this is exactly how the c0t report tends to look right near
major bottoms.
And we're right there, I don't spend as much time on Twitter as I used
to, but last night, I was on Twitter for a little bit and I saw almost
everyone drawing the same chart which
kind of, you know, everyone's looking at the same levels.
So you can see right here between 18 and 1850.
This was Major resistance from 2019, all the way into 2020.
So what was resistance becomes support
so that 1852 1890 levels, very significant first of all, if I were
looking to buy right now, I mean
A lot of people, I think conflate to volatility with risk.
So from my perspective, silver is actually a lower risk investment
right now, even though it's more volatile.
So if you can stomach, the volatility silver is just so much cheaper
on a relative basis than gold.
Gold has hung in there really well it's clung to each to March of two
thousand twenty uptrend line so it's still in an uptrend it never lost
its uptrend status it's hovering right near that 200-day moving
average and you know gold is hung in there really well, I mean I think
there's plenty of upside and gold.
Silver is a much more compelling value proposition right now and I've
been watching this chart for a while.
These longer-term charts, you know, often take a few months to play
out and I think I've showed this to your listeners before but this
shows Sil J verse GDX.
And what we see here, first of all is just how undervalued Junior
silver miners are relative to their gold-mining counterparts.
But you also see this bullish pattern, this is a bullish falling wedge
and what happens is as you approach the Apex which you can
We were right there at the Apex.
Once you break out to the upside you tend to get a really sharp move.
So I'm looking for junior silver.
Miners to play rapid.
Catch up to not only gold and UPS the underlying metal but also
relative to senior gold miners.
Sure.
I like to use Sil J as a proxy for junior silver, miners now, Sil J is
really more mid-tier silver miners it's not necessarily explorers and
developers but you know, it's a good proxy just for you know what?
The junior silver miners are doing.
And there's really not much to say as far as
I'm sure we're we're oversold, we made a positively Divergent lower
low so you can see right here our side made a low here.
Now we made a higher low on RSI but a lower low in price that's
positive Divergence again.
That shows downside momentum is really slowing here and we're at an
area of pretty strong support right around $10 on Sil J.
So you know just like in silver the signs are stacking up that we're
very close to a bottom here.
I was buying pretty aggressively.
Yes.
Turday.
And, you know, if I hadn't if I hadn't been, I would be in there
buying today.
And that's that's for people with a, you know, 1 plus your time
Horizon.
Who can stomach the volatility?
Yep.
I well, I think we are in a long-term bear Market in general equities,
but nothing goes straight down.
So, you know, counter-trend rally wouldn't surprise me.
I think, when the Fed,
Eventually does pivot or start to indicate that they're going to
Pivot.
I think most assets that have been sold off are going to Rally, but I
think for General equities, it'll be a counter Trend rally.
In other words, the long-term Trend I think is going to remain down
even though, you know, we could be due for a bouncer in general.
Equities.
You can see on this line here.
This goes back for a couple years.
I had been shorting stocks off of this resistance line.
I'm not sure.
We'll get back up to there again, but you can see we are below this.
Declining 200-day moving average.
And you've got the short term downtrend line here.
So a lot of resistance to overcome for General equities and one thing
to add with General equities and we've made this point before is when
the FED eventually goes to back to full on easing and money printing
inflation is going to accelerate to the upside.
So I can see a scenario where equities, let's say, equities double but
everything else.
Quadruples welded equities double or did they lose half their value?
And I would argue that
I lost half of their value.
Even if they move up in Nom Nom nominally, do they want to keep seeing
the stock market Fall asset prices fall.
So look, there's three reasons why they need to do their stimulus.
Number one is to support asset prices and that's the one that gets the
most Focus people think they care about the stock market, real estate,
all that, and they do, but also, they need to fund our government
deficits.
I think that's the more important thing that gets overlooked.
We run big budget.
Deficits trillion-plus budget deficits every year going forward.
Who's going to fund that?
We're going to continue to spend more than we take in in federal tax
receipts and you see China stepping back.
You see of Saudi Arabia stepping back from funding our deficits well
who's going to be the buyer of Last Resort is going to be the FED.
Otherwise interest rates are going to just rise and Crush everything.
So they're going to have to choose the crush the economy or do they
allow inflation to run hot and the central Bankers all of history.
And precedent suggest, they always choose to sacrifice the currency.
It's just a matter of time.
What I'm personally doing?
My plan has been
Last few months that if we come back and pull back and retest the
March 8th lows in silver, which has happened that's when I was going
to scale in further with a third of my remaining capital and then if
we pulled back to this 1975 level, which we're at right now, I was
going to scale in further and then keeping a little bit of cash, just
in case we pulled back to that, 1800, 1850 and silver.
That's my personal plan.
If we go to 18, 1850, that's where I would be all in right now.
I mean, I've just got a little bit of cash left.
Silver is must have your attention here.
It's the only commodity on
Planet Earth its trading below where it was in 1980, 40 years ago and
not only is it less than where it was 40 years ago.
It's less than half, it's quite astonishing, really.
So, there's a tremendous value proposition.
They're not just for its monetary components but for its industrial
uses as well, you know, it's used in solar panels and electric
electric vehicles.
And all of this, all these trends that are accelerating in the years
ahead.
So the silver prices I can't fathom the silver price.
Not being significantly higher in a year or two, down the road and
Way it was you we were talking before about why, the FED has to Pivot,
we talked about supporting asset prices.
We talked about funding government deficits.
Well, also facilitates a wealth transfer and you know, the people who
run these, who make these policies are very wealthy.
Well, inflation benefits the wealthy.
It transfers wealth towards the wealthy.
And also if we were to have sustained deflation that hurts tax
receipts you can't tax deflation.
So with inflation, you know tax receipts go up and in
In flights away the debt.
So inflation is in their best interest.
So they're going to they're going to, we're going to have inflation
people say well Market forces are deflationary.
Yeah that's true.
But there's no limit to the amount of currency that it can create and
they're going to do as much as it takes just to reiterate.
If we're not at the bottom, I think we're very close is a great
opportunity.
I think what I'm doing with my own money is buying yesterday and I'm
scaling and further today.