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- [Narrator] Volcanic corruptions like this
may look mesmerizing and sometimes attract flux of tourists,
but they're also dangerous events
that impact human activities,
displace people, and cost lives.
- The prediction is that we did lose some 50% of our GDP
as a result of the volcanic eruption.
- [Narrator] Take this volcano
on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent.
No deaths were reported, but many people had to evacuate
and ash blanketed entire neighborhoods.
Or this Icelandic volcano that erupted in 2010,
paralyzing air traffic
and costing nearly $5 billion to global GDP.
So far, tools like seismicity monitors
have allowed volcanologists to forecast unrest
days or weeks in advance,
but now NASA scientists say they can help forecast eruptions
months or even years ahead of time using satellite imagery
and monitoring changes in ground temperature.
- We wanted to understand
to what extent the heat released by volcanoes can be used
to detect when volcanoes start to reactivate.
There are many impacts of volcanic eruptions
and our goal is to minimize those impacts
as much as possible.
- [Narrator] So here's how it works
and how scientists say we could benefit
from this new research.
An early sign of a volcanic eruption is heat,
as the magma underground rises,
bringing warm gases to the surface.
- We see that these heat emissions, they start to appear
for several months to years before eruption
and we observe these signals prior
to the changes that we observe with other types of signals.
- [Narrator] The problem is that these heat emissions
can be hard to monitor on the ground,
So Girona and his team turned to the sky.
NASA satellites have already been recording
years of information on thermal activity.
- In fact, none of these satellites have been designed
specifically to explore volcanoes,
but we can still use that information
for monitoring volcanic eruptions.
- [Narrator] After looking at two decades
of radiant heat data for several volcanoes,
the researchers found a pattern.
In the years leading up to interruption,
temperatures increased over much of each volcano
before dropping again after the eruption.
- [Tarsilo] We are detecting the early reactivation
of the volcano, which is crucial
to improve the monitoring efforts.
- [Narrator] But before this technology
can be fully deployed in the real world,
scientists will have to process much more data.
- Hopefully in a few years,
we can have a better understanding of the signals,
better understanding of volcanoes,
and we can provide accurate forecasts.
- [Narrator] With about 1,500 active volcanoes on Earth
and troves of satellite data for each one of them,
the NASA team is seeking help
from algorithms and other researchers around the world.
- This is another tool in our toolbox.
- [Narrator] That's Mike Poland.
He's a geophysicist for the U.S. Geological Survey.
He says that these satellite images will have to be used
in tandem with other traditional methods.
- If you're building a house,
you don't just show up with a screwdriver.
You've got a screwdriver, a hammer, a saw,
and we need a diverse toolkit
so that we can recognize all the different types of signs
that volcanoes might be giving us.
- [Narrator] Seismometers gas, sensors,
and radar sensors are some of the tools
that volcanologists will continue to use.
Giving communities more time to prepare
could make the difference between saving livelihoods or not.
In St. Vincent, the local observatory noticed signs
of unrest weeks in advance
and officials were ready to evacuate 20,000 residents
before the volcano erupted,
helping to avoid casualties and greater damage.
But with even more warning,
officials say they may have been able to avoid damage
such as water contamination, for example.
- When the massive eruption there took place,
it compromised our entire water supply.
All of our reservoirs were contaminated with ash.
We were without water for a couple of days
and perhaps going forward,
we can look at maybe putting in tents
where persons can store water properly.
We have to look at greater mitigation
where natural disasters are concerned.
- [Narrator] And in the case of that Icelandic volcano,
scientists say that more warning
would have given the aviation industry more time to adapt
and find alternative routes.
- It's important to forecast eruptions
because we can reduce the impact at a local scale,
but also at a global scale
if you're talking about much larger eruptions.
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