So, you want to make sure you go cruising in 2021? It's not going to be as simple or
as straight-forward as you thought it would be, and you may be approaching it the wrong
way!
I am Gary Bembridge and in this episode of my Tips For Travellers, I am going to share
my tips on the best way to ensure you will cruise in 2021, and what I am doing to make
sure I can be on some of the early cruises, book cruises that are actually likely to sail
and all while breaking out of the endless booking, cancel, rebook and refund spiral
trap.
My first tip is, if you are planning a cruise for 2021 right now, only book one in October,
November or December if you want to be pretty secure and certain you will be going.
Do not book cruises before then at the moment - especially if it is a "bucket list" trip,
there are specific ports or places you absolutely want to visit or (in the case of United States)
you want to go on a cruise longer than 7 nights (as they are banned until at least November)
I'll come on what to do before those months in a bit. But let me explain why you should
only make new bookings for the end of year at the moment
In various travel agent sessions, which I reported on in past episodes, the cruise lines
themselves are encouraging agents to steer their clients towards booking from Q4, as
this is the earliest they feel confident they will be able to run itineraries as advertised.
By then the expectation is that vaccine roll outs will have gathered enough momentum, and
be at a level, where countries will be more open to letting cruises operate closer to
normal. This means being able to call on all, or most ports, included in the advertised
itinerary, and that restrictions both on the ship and land being eased to some degree.
Lines also expect by then that they will have been able to return most of their fleet back
into service, and so they will be able to run almost all advertised itineraries.
All the lines are saying they will phase ships back into service. You will notice as each
round of cancellations are made they now list returns by ship dates, often spread across
multiple months.
More lines have already confirmed some of their ships will only return in 2022 already.
For example, Carnival Cruise Line have Carnival Fascination and Carnival Radiance only returning
in 2022. Fred Olsen have taken one ship out of service until then too.
Talking to contacts I have within the cruise lines before making this episode, they tell
me that many cruisers have already understood this and most of the bookings they are getting
so far this year are from Q4 onwards.
I recommend you follow what the lines are saying and focus any new bookings for the
final months of the year if you want high degree of certainty.
But what if you want to cruise before say October, what should you be doing and planning?
Many passionate cruisers, including me, are keen to support the lines and be sailing on
the early cruises or as soon as possible after they return.
However, in my view, the best way of doing that is to stop looking at what the cruise
lines are advertising and telling you, and taking a different approach.
It may sound crazy and counter intuiative, so let me explain as I do passionately believe
this will mean you can get on early cruises and escape the cycle of booking, rebooking,
paying final balances and fighting to get refunds.
Start off by not focusing on what the lines have as return dates. If you call the lines
they will tell you all the advertised cruises will be going. They have been saying that
for every cruise that finally got cancelled, even days before they were scrapped.
The lines cannot decide when they can sail, only the government agencies can. So things
like the CDC in the USA, the Transport and Foreign Office guided by the Chief Medical
Officer in the UK and so on. So focus on what these bodies are saying or what you really
expect them to do.
They are taking more conservative approach to cruising resumption than the lines return
dates show. None of the major cruise country authorities have committed to a date.
The CDC has lines caught in their Framework For Conditional Sailing which has hurdles
and stages and no timeline commitments. The UK has agreed the protocols for cruising but
refuses to set any dates until case rates on land are low.
Canada and Australia have set dates to review bans, but not shown enthusiasm for lifting
them
So take a judgement call on when you think the authorities will shift as you consider
about when to book.
But even then, don't book one of the currently advertised cruises.
I am absolutely convinced that for the first few months after cruising is given the go-ahead,
that none of those advertised cruises will run. There will be new cruises designed to
meet and work within the regulations and limits set by each country where cruises embark from.
Why do I say this?
Firstly, because every single country and line that has started sailing so far has had
to create new cruises and routes that gel with the requirements of the regulating country,
and around limits of available open ports.
And then there were also limits on who was allowed to go on those cruises too.
Norway in the summer allowed Hurtigruten and SeaDream to run Norway only cruises for locals
and then other Scandinavian countries for a while.
Ponant was allowed to sail French ports for French guests only last summer. Germany allowed
Hurtigruten, Mein Schiff and Hapag Lloyd to first run cruises to nowhere for German guests
out of German ports.
Italy allowed Costa Cruises and MSC Cruises to take Italian, and then EU guests, initially
to Italian ports, then for a time Greek ports.
Taiwan, Japan and then Singapore each allowed short cruises to nowhere only for locals in
each of those countries. And most recently, New Zealand has given the okay for Ponant
to sail in their country only for locals.
It is important to note that in all the major cruise countries including United States,
UK and Australia, the lines, Cruise Line Association and authorities are proposing return will
focus on new and limited cruises.
UK and Australia are talking about resident only cruises calling only on ports within
their countries at first. US is talking about cruises that call on the lines' private islands
initially.
So those currently advertised cruises close to any return date, the lines are not unlikely
to be able (nor are planning) to be running as and when cruising gets the okay. They hope
to be able to add to, expand and eventually phase into the originally planned itineraries.
So this is why avoid booking rest of the year cruises for now
That what what you should not do. So, What should you do?
First, retain ultimate flexibility. Both of your cash and vacation time.
If you have an existing 2021 cruise cancelled, I recommend strongly consider taking a cash
refund and not Future Cruise Credit. I also suggest not paying final balances if they
become due, and shift bookings into Q4 and beyond if the deposit is not refundable.
As my existing 2021 cruises are getting cancelled, I am shifting them into end of 2021 and more
so into 2022. I am also not paying final balances on any 2021 cruises to avoid tying up big
chunks of money or waiting for refunds, which can be really slow.
This means I then have cash in my hand to jump when things open, and am not limited
to which line or lines I have to sail with in 2021 when cruising returns.
If you do this too, it means you will have money to be able to book one of the new return
cruises and are not stuck or limited to any particular cruise line as your funds are tied
up with them.
We will only know close to the time what the new cruises are, how long they are, what they
will cost and if they will appeal. Having flexibility of cash and vacation time means
being able to be nimble and jump on any line or route that appeals and works best for you.
It also means that you should have vacation day flexibility to take some of those new
return cruises when they come on stream, as you do not have to hold days for cruises you
have booked during 2021 that may not happen as planned.
So having cash and vacation flexibility should mean that when cruising really returns with
those new cruises, you are in a position to act on it.
Some have said to me that recommending approaches like this is wrong, and we should be showing
support for the lines by booking now.
However, booking later this year is supporting them and also being ready and able to book
return to cruises they create I believe is great support. The lines in countries like
Norway, Germany, Italy, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan have been delighted and encouraged
by people committing and booking their return limited cruises. By being ready and able with
cash and time to support these seems like a good thing to me.
Do you agree?
By the way, remember I have loads more Tips For Travellers episodes full of cruising advice
and tips, so what not go and enjoy another one right now?